The men have fled, there is a power vacuum at the top and a woman has taken over in a time of crisis. Is she being set up to fail?

男人们都逃走了，最高层出现了一个权力真空，一个女人在危机时刻接过权杖。她注定会失败吗？

If evidence were needed to support the theory that women only get the top job in particularly precarious times, Theresa May, the new UK prime minister, is that woman, says Michelle Ryan. Prof Ryan is an academic at Exeter University who, along with Alex Haslam, first coined the phrase “glass cliff” to describe the trend in 2005.

英国埃克塞特大学(University of Exeter)学者米歇尔•瑞恩(Michelle Ryan)表示，如果女性只会在特别危险的时刻获得最高职务这个理论需要证据支持的话，英国新任首相特里萨•梅(Theresa May，见上图)就是这样一个例子。2005年，瑞恩与亚历克斯•哈斯拉姆(Alex Haslam)首次提出“玻璃悬崖”这个词，用以描述这种现象。

Although the 59-year-old head of the UK’s Conservative party has harboured leadership ambitions for several years, “it is interesting that this is the time she gets it,” Ms Ryan adds.

尽管59岁的英国保守党领袖怀揣领导梦想已有多年，但瑞恩补充称：“有趣的是她会在这个时候上任。”

“She will be in the position of not being able to please anyone.” No matter what she does on the European Union question, “50 per cent of the population are going to be happy and the other 50 per cent unhappy.”

“她所处的地位将无法取悦任何人，”不管她在英国退欧问题上怎么做，“50%的英国人会高兴，另外50%的英国人则会不高兴。”

The argument is that women are set up to fail — pushed into leadership positions to take the flak or when a scapegoat is needed.

这种观点是女性被推上注定失败的舞台；她们被推上领导岗位接受批评或者成为替罪羊。

In other cases, it is because change is required, and women are more likely to suggest a clean slate than another white man in a grey suit, says Ms Ryan.

瑞恩表示，在其他例子里，女性担任领导者是因为需要改革，与穿着灰色西装的又一位白人男性相比，女性更有可能预示从头再来。

Soon after Iceland’s three main banks failed in October 2008, Jóhanna Sigurdardóttir was installed as the nation’s first female prime minister and women were appointed to run two of the nationalised banks.

2008年10月，在冰岛三家主要银行破产后不久，约翰娜•西于尔扎多蒂(Johanna Sigurdardottir)被任命为冰岛首位女总理，该国两家被国有化的银行由女性接手。

Marissa Mayer, chief executive of Yahoo, which last week revealed it had suffered the biggest-known data breach to date, was initially hailed as a trailblazer who could rescue the technology and media company. Soon after her arrival she was castigated for everything from her decision to clamp down on staff working at home to her choice of taking only a short maternity leave.

雅虎(Yahoo)首席执行官梅里莎•梅尔(Marissa Mayer)最初被称赞为一位开拓者，能够挽救这家科技和传媒集团。在她上任后不久，她受到了各种批评，从她决定禁止员工在家办公，到她选择休很短的产假。雅虎最近承认遭遇迄今最大规模的已知数据泄密事件。

Mary Barra’s promotion to chief executive of General Motors in 2014 was welcomed as a victory for gender equality because she was the first woman to head a global carmaker. Two months after she was appointed, GM announced that it had to recall 2.6m cars because of faulty ignition switches implicated in the deaths of at least 13 people.

2014年，玛丽•巴拉(Mary Barra)升任通用汽车(General Motors)首席执行官，这被视为一场性别平等的胜利，因为她是首位领导一家全球汽车制造商的女性。在她上任两个月后，通用宣布因点火开关故障不得不召回260万辆汽车，这种故障与至少13例死亡有关。

This raised questions about whether Ms Barra or other executives knew a crisis was unfolding when she was appointed — putting her on, as it were, the very precipice of the glass cliff.

这引发了有关在巴拉上任时，她或其他高管是否了解一场危机正在扑面而来的质疑；这一任命仿佛把她推上了玻璃悬崖。

There is a host of examples of women taking leadership positions during crises but Per-Ola Karlsson, a consultant at Strategy&, part of PwC, says the glass cliff theory “may be a myth and that other factors can explain what we see”.

女性在危机期间担任领导者的例子很多，但普华永道(PwC)旗下的Strategy&咨询顾问佩尔-奥拉•卡尔松(Per-Ola Karlsson)表示，玻璃悬崖理论“可能是个神话，其他因素可以解释我们所看到的现象”。

Women accounted for just 10 of the incoming 359 chief executives worldwide in 2015, the lowest rate since 2011, according to Strategy&’s annual study of 2,500 companies.

根据Strategy&对2500家公司的年度研究，在2015年全球359名新任首席执行官中，女性仅为10人，为自2011年以来最低。

In North America, just one female chief executive was appointed during the entire year: Andrea Greenberg at sports and entertainment company MSG Networks.

在北美，去年全年仅有一位女性首席执行官得到任命：体育和娱乐公司MSG Networks的安德丽亚•格林伯格(Andrea Greenberg)。

But while it is clear that “many factors including leadership development approaches and cultures make it that much harder for women”, Strategy& has not found any statistical evidence to back the idea that female leaders were brought in more often during crises, says Mr Karlsson.

然而，卡尔松表示，尽管很明显，“包括领导能力发展途径和文化在内的多个因素让女性更难升迁”， 但Strategy&没有发现有任何统计数据支持危机期间有更多女性领导者上任的观点。

What it did find was that in the previous decade female chief executives were 27 per cent more likely to be forced out than male chief executives.

研究发现，过去10年，女性首席执行官被迫辞职的可能性比男性首席执行官高出27%。

Harriet Green, referred to by the Daily Mail tabloid as the “Gucci-loving blonde with a tattoo — and a temper”, joined the travel agent Thomas Cook as chief executive in 2012 when there were fears for the company’s survival.

2012年，哈瑞特•格林(Harriet Green)加盟旅行社Thomas Cook，担任首席执行官，当时各方担忧该公司能否生存。小报《每日邮报》(Daily Mail)称她为“有着纹身和脾气、喜欢Gucci的金发美女”。

Even though she transformed the company’s fortunes, Ms Green was forced out by the board two years later.

尽管她转变了该公司的命运，但格林在两年后被董事会赶下台。

Strategy&’s research suggests one reason women are forced out is that they are more likely than men to be hired from outside the company, and outsiders, irrespective of gender, are more likely to end up being dismissed. Outsiders lack the internal networks and knowledge that help them survive.

Strategy&的研究发现，女性领导者被赶下台的一个原因是她们比男性更有可能从公司外部聘用，而不管是男是女，外部人士最终更有可能被辞退。外部人士缺乏帮助他们生存的内部人脉和知识。

Still, the intense scrutiny faced by female bosses may deter women from competing for leadership positions, says Jenny Campbell, chief executive of YourCash Europe, the ATM provider formerly called Hanco ATM systems.

但是话说回来，原名Hanco ATM系统的ATM提供商YourCash Europe的首席执行官珍妮•坎贝尔(Jenny Campbell)表示，女性领导者受到的密切关注可能使女性不敢争夺领导地位。

Although Ms Campbell was appointed to lead Hanco when it was in crisis, she believes that this was thanks to her experience at Royal Bank of Scotland, its then owner, rather than anything to do with her gender.

尽管坎贝尔在危机时刻被任命为Hanco首席执行官，但她认为，这要感谢她在Hanco当时的所有者苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)的经验，与她的性别毫无关系。

Ms Campbell’s argument is that plenty of men are also appointed to leadership positions during troublesome times but that women — still a rarity at the top — attract more attention when they fail. “Female leaders that haven’t succeeded in business are more visible and more likely to be put under the microscope simply because they are female,” she says.

坎贝尔认为，很多男性也在艰难时刻担任领导者，但女性（在高层仍属罕见）在失败时会招来更多的注意。她表示：“未能在商界取得成功的女性领导人更容易被看到，也更有可能因为她们是女性而被置于显微镜下。”

All to say that even if there are cracks in the glass cliff theory, an extra set of crampons may come in hand for Mrs May and other women who have smashed the glass ceiling and want to stay on the summit.

总之，即便玻璃悬崖理论出现裂缝，对于梅以及其他打碎了玻璃天花板、并希望留在顶峰的女性而言，多准备一套冰爪可能是有用的。