This year’s US election has given rise to plenty of peculiar developments.

今年的美国大选引发了很多奇怪的事态。

Here is another one: Carbon Black, a cyber security firm, has released a poll suggesting that 58 per cent of voters think it likely that electronic voting machines could be cyber-hacked.

这里又有一样：网络安全公司Carbon Black公布民调显示，58%的选民认为电子投票器被入侵的可能性较大。

Indeed, popular concern is so high that 15m voters may refuse to participate, Carbon Black says, noting that voters believe a US insider threat (28 per cent), Russia (17 per cent) and the candidates themselves (15 per cent) pose the biggest risks.

Carbon Black称，事实上，公众担忧之甚，以至于1500万选民可能会拒绝参加投票。该公司指出，选民认为美国内部人士（28%）、俄罗斯（17%）和候选人本身（15%）是前几大构成风险的危险因素。

It might seem tempting to dismiss this as marketing, or as a sign of the febrile political mood, but discounting that 58 per cent number that would be a terrible mistake.

我们可能很容易想把上述结果简单地归结为一种营销造势，或一个显示狂热政治情绪的标志，但是忽视这个58%的数字将是个严重的错误。

One reason is that many US government officials quietly share voters’ concerns.

一个原因是，美国很多政府官员私底下也存在与选民们相同的担忧。

Little wonder.

这也难怪。

Small cyber breaches of the electoral register have already occurred in Arizona and Illinois.

亚利桑那州和伊利诺伊州的选民名册数据库已经遭到过小规模入侵。

Several states are thought to be vulnerable to attacks on the election system, particularly those, like Pennsylvania, that use direct-recording electronic machines to tally the vote.

多个州的选举投票系统被认为容易受到攻击，特别是那些使用直接记录电子机器来计票的州，比如宾夕法尼亚州。

Pennsylvania, largely thought to be a key battleground state in the upcoming election, may be the largest concern when it comes to electronic voting machines, Carbon Black suggests.

Carbon Black指出：宾州在即将举行的大选中被认为是关键战场，而这个州的电子投票器可能是最令人担忧的。

Even if election fears turn out to be misplaced, they highlight a bigger point: a new front is opening up in cyber warfare.

即便关于大选的担忧到头来原来是多虑，它们也突显了更重要的一点：一条新战线正在网络战争中打开。

This has big implications for both political pundits and business leaders.

这对政治专家和商界领袖影响重大。

Two decades ago, it was presumed that hackers aimed to do one of four things: steal money; grab secrets; highlight a political cause; or inflict physical sabotage.

二十年前，人们认定黑客的目标无非是做以下四件事之一：偷钱、窃取情报、促使世人关注某项政治事业、或造成实际的破坏。

Western intelligence forces have moved to offset those threats.

西方情报部门已采取行动来消除这些威胁。

For example, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Department of Homeland Security are currently running a cyber security awareness month to teach consumers and businesses how to avoid fraud and theft.

例如，美国联邦调查局(FBI)和国土安全局(DHS)目前正在开展网络安全意识月活动，教消费者和企业如何避免遭受欺诈和盗窃。

Meanwhile, the US military and DHS have been scrambled to protect so-called systemically important infrastructure from sabotage.

与此同时，美国军队和国土安全局争相保护所谓具有系统重要性的基础设施免遭破坏。

There is intense activity around the US electricity grid, after hackers damaged a Ukrainian grid last year.

在去年黑客破坏乌克兰电网后，针对美国电网也存在密集的黑客活动。

The US election has put a fifth category of risks on the radar: cyber attacks that aim to inflict psychological damage by shattering public trust.

美国大选将第五种风险带到了人们的视线中：旨在通过动摇公众信任而造成心理上的破坏的网络攻击。

People have got it all wrong, Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of cyber security group CrowdStrike, recently told me.

人们全搞错了，网络安全公司CrowdStrike的创始人德米特里•阿尔佩罗维奇(Dmitri Alperovitch)最近向我表示。

(CrowdStrike revealed that hackers, apparently linked to Russia, had infiltrated the Democratic National Committee.)

（CrowdStrike透露，看上去与俄罗斯有关联的黑客之前已渗入过民主党全国委员会(DNC)的网络）。

For the past 30 years everyone has worried about kinetic attacks, say an attack on a grid — we were waiting for a cyber Pearl Harbor.

过去30年，每个人都担心动力受到攻击、也就是电网受到攻击——我们一直在等待一场网络珍珠港事件。

But the Russians have always believed that the real value of cyber is psychological warfare and influence.

但是俄罗斯人始终认为，网络的真正价值在于心理方面的战争和影响力。

As a senior US intelligence figure recently told a private meeting of business and policy luminaries: What do we do if the key goal of cyber hackers now is not to steal things but undermine trust in things that guide our lives? Intelligence officials are particularly uneasy about the risk of an attack on the financial system, since this is a sector which only functions if there is trust — as the crisis of 2008 showed.

正如美国一名高级情报官员最近在一次商界和政界名流齐聚的私人会议上所说的那样：如果现在网络黑客的核心目标不再是偷东西、而是破坏我们对指引我们生活的东西的信任，我们怎么办？情报官员格外担忧黑客会攻击金融系统，因为金融是一个只有在存在信任的情况下才能正常运行的领域——正如2008年金融危机所显示的那样。

American officials are trying to fight back.

美国官员正尝试反击。

Last weekend, for example, the DHS offered to provide cyber security assistance to state governments to help them protect the election.

例如，国土安全局近日表示愿向各个州政府提供网络安全协助，帮助各州保护大选免受网络攻击。

Two dozen states have accepted.

24个州接受了。

But the election is so close, and states so cash-strapped, that it is unclear how effective these defences will be.

但是大选日期近在咫尺，许多州又如此囊中羞涩，这些防御措施的效果如何尚不清楚。

Bafflingly, the DHS has not designated the electoral register as critical infrastructure.

令人困惑的是，国土安全局并没有把选民名册定为关键基础设施。

It should do this now, so Federal funds can be released for the fight.

该部门现在应该这么做，这样才能让联邦资金得以被用于打赢这场仗。

The really big issue, though, is the psychological threat.

不过，真正要紧的问题是心理威胁。

Donald Trump has called for aggressive counter-attacks in cyber space to provide a display of strength.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)呼吁在网络空间发动强硬反击，让对手知道厉害。

Separately, Mr Alperovitch thinks the US government needs to publicly declare that Russia is launching psychological attacks, in order to prepare the public.

此外，阿尔佩罗维奇认为，美国政府需要公开宣布俄罗斯正在发动心理攻击，从而让公众做好心理准备。

In the cold war days, the state department had a department which countered Soviet propaganda, but then it was disbanded, he argues. They need to once again build a strategy for countering Russia’s aggressive influence operations.

在冷战期间，美国国务院曾设有一个部门负责反击苏联的宣传，但后来解散了，他认为，他们需要再次构建起一套战略来对抗俄罗斯咄咄逼人的造势活动。

The risk of any aggressive action is that it might launch bigger counter-attacks or spread public fear.

采取任何激进行动的风险是，可能引发更猛烈的反击或在公众中散播恐惧情绪。

American voters and politicians seem stuck in a nervous waiting game.

美国选民和政治人士似乎卡在了紧张的等待中进退两难。

We had better hope that eventually a new form of cold war-style detente emerges in 21st-century cyber space, as it once did in the physical world.

我们最好希望，在21世纪的网络空间中，也能出现一种新的休战——就像曾经在现实世界中出现过的、为冷战画上了句号的那种。

If not, business leaders need to look at the US election — and prepare for a world where digital trust is a new military plaything.

如果没出现，那么商界领袖需要关注美国大选，并准备好迎接这样一个世界，在这个世界里，数字空间里的信任成为新的被玩弄的对象。