Few issues in financial policy are more controversial than the impact of blockchain, the distributed ledger technology that sits behind the digital currency bitcoin. Does it threaten not only the profits of financial intermediaries but also their business models?

在金融政策领域，没有什么问题比区块链的影响更有争议了。区块链是数字货币比特币背后的分布式记账技术。这种技术会不会威胁金融中介的利润，甚至危及它们的商业模式？

Could it undermine the control that central bankers exert over global payments and securities processing? Or is it a tool to streamline cluttered processes, improve resilience and enhance transparency?

它会不会削弱央行对全球支付和证券处理的控制？抑或它是简化繁杂过程、提高抗压能力和增强透明度的工具？

The case for change is clear. Even if the dangerous experiment of negative interest rates proves to be shorter lived than many fear, banks’ need for more operating leverage will remain in a modest growth economy.

实施改革的理由很明显。即使负利率的危险实验被证明比许多人担忧的要短命一些，在温和增长的经济中，银行对更高营运杠杆的需求依然会存在。

The key to cutting costs? Harnessing technology to improve productivity.

那么，削减成本的关键是什么？答案是充分利用新技术以提高生产率。

Enter blockchain . It offers the promise of a unique shared database across multiple sites and geographies as a public ledger of all transactions.

这便是区块链的用武之地。它有望在多个站点和地理区域提供独特的共享数据库，作为所有交易的公共账本。

Broad-based adoption could take as long as a decade, as issues such as scalability and standards have yet to be resolved.

由于可扩展性和相关标准等问题尚未解决，大范围推广可能仍是10年后的事情。

And while there is a great deal of hype surrounding the technology, there are also several misconceptions.

与此同时，尽管围绕该技术有大量炒作，但仍存在几个认识误区。

For the more radical proponents of blockchain, a distributed ledger means a peer-to-peer system, eliminating the need for middlemen.

对比较激进的区块链支持者来说，分布式账本意味着一种p2p系统，消除了对中间人的需求。

But neither banks nor policymakers take the idea of an “unpermissioned” network seriously, principally because of anti-money laundering and “know your customer” (KYC) rules. This of course raises the issue of who will be in charge.

不过，银行和政策制定者都没有认真考虑过建立“无许可”网络的想法，主要是由于反洗钱和“了解你的客户”(know your customer，KYC)的规则。这无疑会带来由谁负责的问题。

Another claim often made is that blockchain can eliminate existing infrastructure. But its scalability has not yet been tested and firms cannot risk trillions of dollars of daily fund flows on an unproven system. Blockchain will need to be able to be plugged into existing technology to be usable and affordable. This is more evolution than revolution.

另一个时常出现的说法是区块链会消灭现存的基础设施。但它的可扩展性还没有经过验证，企业不能冒险用一个未经验证的系统处理数万亿美元的日常资金流。区块链将需要能够与现有技术衔接，才能做到可用和成本可承受。这在更大程度上是进化，而不是革命。

What does this mean for policymakers? Christopher Giancarlo, a commissioner at the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has argued that in order for blockchain technology to develop, regulators must take a “do no harm” approach. He is right.

对于政策制定者来说，这意味着什么？美国商品期货交易委员会(Commodity Futures Trading Commission)委员克里斯托弗•詹卡洛(Christopher Giancarlo)主张，要让区块链技术得到发展，监管者必须采取“不伤害”姿态。他说得对。

Regulators should be agnostic about new technology, but there are some practical steps they could take in order to encourage blockchain innovation.

监管机构应该对新技术抱中性态度，但他们可以采取一些实际步骤鼓励区块链创新。

A recent Morgan Stanley report outlined ten potential obstacles to making blockchain a reality in banking.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)近期一份报告列出了银行业采用区块链技术的十个潜在障碍。

Overcoming half of them would require collaboration with public authorities. The adoption of blockchain hinges on regulation, most of which is still to be written.

这些障碍中有半数需要政府当局合作才能克服。区块链技术的普及有赖于法规，而大部分法规尚未出台。

First, regulators need to work with innovators on areas such as digital identity, smart contracts, tokenisation, privacy and data ownership.

首先，监管者需要与数字化身份认证、智能合约、标记化、隐私和数据所有权等领域的创新者开展合作。

Second, legal issues need to be addressed. For instance, who is responsible in a decentralised system?

其次，需要应对相关法律问题。比如，在去中心化的系统中，该由谁负责？

Who has jurisdiction when a network is spread over a large number of regions and companies? How will existing regulations be adapted to new technologies and business models?

在网络分布于众多地区和企业的情况下，谁有管辖权？现有法规该如何修改，以适应新的技术和商业模式？

More broadly, shared services are likely to be central to the next decade of banking. Regulation will play a critical role in supporting this shift.

更普遍地说，服务共享可能成为今后10年银行业的核心关键。监管将扮演支持这一转型的关键角色。

A healthy financial system will require more mutualisation of costs, given that multiple rules are a disincentive to consolidation. These include areas such as KYC, which are particularly difficult to manage given differing legal interpretations.

考虑到多头管理不利于整合，健康的金融系统将要求更多共担成本。这其中就包括KYC等领域，在法律解释各不相同的情况下，这些领域尤其难以管理。

Blockchain may bring about dramatic change. And if it does, there will be losers, as floor traders found out to their cost when securities exchanges went through a technological disruption of their own. This, however, did not spell the end of all intermediaries.

区块链也许会带来戏剧性的改革。一旦它做到这一点，将会出现输家——就像证券交易所在经历技术剧变时，场内交易员发现自己变得多余那样。

Rather, it reinvigorated the winners, who are able to manage volumes several orders of magnitude higher than before at a fraction of the cost, and with greater functionality for investors.

不过，这并不意味着所有中介的末日。相反，它将振作赢家，他们能管理比过去高几个数量级的成交量，而成本只有过去的一个零头，还能为投资者提供更多功能。

The blockchain revolution, if it happens, could prove to be just as important to customers.

区块链革命一旦发生，可能被证明对客户也同等重要。