China bears rejoice: if Hong Kong’s exports to China can jump an eye-popping 200 per cent, as they did last month, then mainlanders must still be actively seeking ways to move funds offshore. But bears with a short-term eye beware: it pays to trade what China actually does with its currency — not what its numbers say.

唱空中国者要开心了，如果香港对内地出口能够像上个月那样惊人跃升200%，那就说明内地人肯定仍在积极想方设法向海外转移资金。但短期唱空者要注意：要在汇市交易，最好以中国对人民币采取的实际行动（而不是数据所反映的情况）为依据。

China’s weekend data dump certainly implied renminbi weakness ahead. Any confidence from a second straight month of rising currency reserves was countered by the fact that it was due entirely to valuation effects, not inflows. And within the so-so trade data lay the glaring discrepancy between China’s claims of a 203 per cent rise in imports from Hong Kong last month, and the former British colony’s report that exports to the mainland dropped 10 per cent. Last week, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said it had stepped up efforts to crack down on over-invoicing. Inflating payments due to an offshore entity is a well-known method of moving funds offshore.

上周末中国发布的数据肯定暗示，人民币接下来将会走弱。外汇储备连续第二个月上升带来的所有信心都被一个事实抵消了：这一增加完全是因为估值效应，而不是因为流入。同时表现平平的贸易数据还含有明显差异，中国声称上月从香港进口上升203%，而香港报告向内地出口下降10%。上周，香港金融管理局(HKMA)表示已加大力度打击虚开贸易发票。夸大向离岸实体的应付款项，是众所周知的向海外转移资金的一种方法。

So far, bets on a weaker renminbi have tended to focus on its dollar value. On top of the data, bears have taken heart from the fact that, last week, the People’s Bank of China weakened the renminbi’s daily midpoint by the most in a single day this year. Also, the gap between onshore and offshore rates has widened slightly. However, those bears would be better off thinking about China’s trade-weighted basket. Since December, the renminbi has been falling at an annualised rate of 12 per cent a year on this basis, according to Citigroup. Against the dollar this year, in spite of the early-year furore, the renminbi is flat.

到目前为止，相信人民币会走弱的人通常将重点放在人民币兑美元的汇率上。除了数据以外，唱空者还受到另一项事实的鼓舞：上周，中国央行(PBoC)下调人民币汇率每日中间价的幅度达到今年单日最大值。此外，在岸和离岸汇率之间的差距有所拉大。不过，这些唱空者最好考虑一下中国的贸易加权货币篮子。据花旗集团(Citigroup)的数据，自去年12月以来，人民币相对于这个货币篮子的年率化降幅达到12%。今年人民币兑美元汇率则保持平稳，虽然年初出现过波动。

One trick is not to focus on the renminbi’s daily dollar midpoint for clues as to PBoC thinking. In January and February, the PBoC enlisted the so-called fix — around which the onshore rate may trade 2 per cent — as a weapon in its battle against a wave of bearish renminbi bets. But since then, the fix can generally be predicted, as the PBoC promised last year, from a combination of overnight dollar moves and the onshore market’s previous close. Last week’s big weakening, for example, becomes less of a PBoC policy signal when the dollar’s simultaneous surge is taken into account. Renminbi weakness is happening, But it is time to take another look at how exactly it can be traded.

一个窍门是不要纠结于人民币兑美元汇率每日中间价，视其为揣测中国央行思路的线索。今年1月和2月，中国央行将这个中间价——人民币在岸汇率可以在其上下2%范围内波动——当作武器，对抗一波卖空人民币的押注。但自那以来，结合隔夜美元动态以及在岸市场前一日收盘价，基本可以预测出中间价，就像中国央行去年承诺的那样。以上周人民币汇率大幅下滑为例，如果考虑到美元同时出现的飙升，这种下滑就变得不那么像是中国央行的政策信号。人民币正在走弱，但现在是时候重新思考怎样借机交易。