The dollar touched a 15-month lowyesterday, reflecting growing market doubts that the US economy can grow fastenough for the Federal Reserve to meet its interest rate target.

美元汇率昨日触及15个月以来低点，反映了市场愈演愈烈的疑虑：美国经济能否实现足以让美联储(Fed)达到其利率目标的增速？

The “DXY”index thatmeasures the greenback against a basket of its peers has fallen for sevenstraight days —its longest losing streak in more than a year. It fell as much as0.8 per cent -yesterday to below 92, a level last plumbed in January 2015.

衡量美元相对一篮子其他货币强劲程度的DXY指数已连续七天下跌，创下逾一年来的最长连跌记录。昨日跌幅一度高达0.8%，跌破92，这是2015年1月以来的最低水平。

Although the gauge later clawed back itslosses to trade at 92.83, currency strategists said the trend pointed to-further declines. The dollar has now “broken free” from its range and is“heading lower”, said Kit Juckes, FX strategist at Société Générale. “We are goingto overshoot from here.”

虽然该指数后来收复部分失地，回升至92.83，但外汇策略师表示，从趋势来看，还会出现进一步下跌。美元如今已经“跌破”区间，正“走向更低”，法国兴业银行(SociétéGénérale)外汇策略师基特•朱克斯(Kit Juckes)说，“我们将从目前水平过冲。”

Only four of the 32 biggest currencies inthe world have failed to gain against the dollar this year, complicating thelandscape for economic policy globally.

今年，全球32大最主要货币中，对美元未出现升值的只有4种，这使得全球经济政策的大环境更加复杂。

Policymakers in the eurozone and Japan areseeking to increase stimulus to raise growth levels and inflation but insteadfind their strengthening currencies having the opposite effect. In the US,which has started to raise rates, the dollar’s fall may increase inflationarypressures and boost growth.

欧元区及日本的政策制定者正试图增加刺激，以提高增长水平和通胀，却发现本币走强，产生了反作用。在已经开始加息的美国，美元下挫可能会增加通胀压力，促进经济增长。

The dollar’s weakness is felt most keenlyin Japan. At one stage, it was worth as little as ￥105.5, a level not seensince October 2014, thanks in part to the Bank of Japan’s decision not to actlast week on expectations of more aggressive monetary stimulus.

受美元疲软影响最大的莫过于日本。美元兑日元汇率一度跌至1美元兑105.5日元，创2014年10月以来新低，部分原因是日本央行(Bank of Japan)上周没有按照外界的预期出台更激进的货币刺激措施。

The euro is also higher than the -EuropeanCentral Bank would probably prefer, topping an 18-month high of $1.16 yesterdaybefore slipping back.

欧元走强幅度也很可能超出了欧洲央行(ECB)的愿望，欧元兑美元汇率昨天一度升破1欧元兑1.16美元，创18个月以来的新高，但随后回落。

This year’s dollar slide comes after aheady rise for the US currency in 2014 and 2015, with the dollar index toppingthe 100 mark in December in response to the Fed raising rates for the firsttime in nine years. The expectation of further interest rate increases fuelledbets on mounting dollar strength in 2016.

美元在2014及2015年一路上涨之后，迎来了今年的下挫。美联储9年以来首次加息带来的结果是，美元指数去年12月突破了100大关。进一步加息的预期，曾推动了市场对2016年美元走强的押注。

But the first four months of the year haveconfounded that expectation, driven by the turmoil in January and February andexacerbated by the Fed’s subsequent caution about global growth and the outlook for the USeconomy.

但受1月和2月出现的动荡，以及美联储随后对全球经济增长和美国经济前景表现出的谨慎，都使美元在今年头4个月的表现与预期相悖。

Traders now sense that the path of leastresistance is for a weaker dollar, according to Marc Chandler, head of currencystrategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. Paraphrasing Lenin, he said: “In a swordfight, if you feel mush, push. And if you feel steel, retreat. Right now dollarbears are feeling mush.”

布朗兄弟哈里曼(Brown Brothers Harriman)的外汇策略主管马克•钱德勒(MarcChandler)认为，交易员们如今的感觉是，最小阻力路径是美元走弱。套用列宁的话，他说：“在一场持剑对决中，如果你感到胆怯，要前进。如果你觉得有信心，要撤退。眼下美元空头感到胆怯。”