Fifteen years ago, I became mesmerised by the Four Seasons Hotel in Manhattan. That was partly because of architecture: its lobby, with lofty ceilings and magnificent pillars, is designed with the soaring ambition of an Egyptian pyramid or medieval cathedral.

15年前，我被曼哈顿的四季酒店(Four Seasons Hotel)迷住了。建筑风格是一个原因：酒店大堂高耸的天花板和富丽堂皇的柱子，就像埃及金字塔或中世纪大教堂寓意着远大的目标。

But the main reason for my fascination was that I was writing a book (Saving the Sun) about the rise and fall of the postwar Japanese economy, using one of its premier banks — Long Term Credit Bank, or “Shinsei” as it was later renamed — for the narrative structure.

但是，这家酒店让我着迷的主要原因是，我当时正在写一本关于战后日本经济崛起和衰落的书——《新泡沫经济：日本银行的崩溃与曙光》(Saving the Sun)。书中以一家日本顶尖银行——长期信贷银行（Long Term Credit Bank，后更名为新生银行(Shinsei)）——的故事作为叙事主线。

One intriguing chapter in this saga concerns the fact that during the 1980s LTCB lent vast sums to a shadowy Japanese company called EIE to build that Four Seasons Hotel on 57th Street. Those majestic pillars, in other words, were a potent and costly symbol of Japan’s bubble-era desire to make a statement on the global stage.

这个长篇故事中有一章很有意思，讲述了在上世纪80年代长期信贷银行向一家神秘的日本公司EIE提供大笔贷款，用于在第57街建造四季酒店。换句话说，那些宏伟的柱子正是日本在泡沫经济时代的抱负——渴望在国际舞台上一展雄姿——的强有力而昂贵的象征。

Inevitably, it ended messily: in 1990 the Japanese bubble burst, unleashing a financial crisis. The 57th Street hotel became a loss-making disaster, causing the EIE group to collapse under $6bn of debt, and LTCB to implode (it was then bought by American private equity investors).

结果却不可避免地惨淡收场：1990年，日本泡沫破灭，金融危机爆发。57街的四季酒店成了灾难性的亏损之源，导致EIE集团在60亿美元债务的重压下破产、长期信贷银行崩溃（后来被美国私募投资者收购）。

Indeed, the only reason the hotel still stands as a symbol of New York luxury today is that Ty Warner, the US entrepreneur who made a fortune by inventing the Beanie Baby doll, subsequently snapped it up at a cut-rate price. And it is Warner’s Beanie Babies — not Hello Kitty dolls — that are being sold in its cavernous lobby.

诚然，这家酒店能作为纽约奢靡生活的象征屹立至今，只因美国企业家泰伊•华纳(Ty Warner)——靠发明豆豆娃(Beanie Baby)玩偶而发家致富——随后以低价收购了该酒店。如今在宽敞的酒店大堂出售的是华纳的豆豆娃，而非日本的Hello Kitty。

Some readers may wonder why this peculiar little piece of Manhattan history matters; few of the tourists or power elite who flock there will be aware of it. But right now the story of EIE is a salutary one. This month, Wall Street is agog at the fact that Anbang, a Chinese insurance company, tried to purchase the Starwood Hotels group for an eye-popping $14bn. As it happens, this bid collapsed. But Anbang has already spent some $2bn to buy the Waldorf Astoria hotel and another $6.5bn on other hotels owned by Blackstone.

一些读者可能感到奇怪，这段关于曼哈顿历史的小插曲有什么意义？蜂拥而来的游客或权贵精英们没多少人会知晓这段故事。但是，EIE的故事放在眼下有其实际意义。本月，中国安邦保险(Anbang)试图以令人瞠目的140亿美元高价收购喜达屋(Starwood Hotels)，让华尔街情绪激昂。结果，这笔交易落空了。但是，安邦已经斥资约20亿美元收购了华尔道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria hotel)，并以65亿美元从黑石(Blackstone)手中收购了多家酒店。

Anbang is not alone: so far this year Chinese companies have bid $100bn for overseas acquisitions, almost as much as they spent in all of 2015 (which was a record). And the fee-hungry American mergers and acquisition bankers who are eagerly arranging these deals say that the $100bn figure will double — if not treble or quadruple — over 2016 as a whole.

安邦并非个例：今年以来，中国企业已斥资约1000亿美元进行海外收购，几乎与2015年创纪录的海外收购总额持平。同时，正在热心安排这些交易、渴望佣金的美国并购银行家表示，2016年全年中国海外并购额将是1000亿美元的两倍，甚至三倍、四倍。

This feels horribly familiar. Never mind the fact that Chinese companies such as Anbang, which was founded just 12 years ago, look almost as opaque as Japan’s EIE did three decades ago, with alarmingly complex corporate governance structures. What is also striking is the way that cash is being tossed around with such a lack of constraint.

这让人有似曾相识的感觉。且不提安邦（创办仅12年）等中国企业看起来就像30年前的EIE一样不透明，公司治理结构复杂得令人担忧。同样令人震惊的是，这些企业使用资金的方式如此不受约束。

That reflects the fact that China is now grappling with the same problems that haunted Japan 40 years ago. In recent decades China has built an industrial powerhouse and exporting machine by keeping its financial system under tight state control, channelling the country’s savings to industry at the expense of consumers. This enabled it to “develop” (ie grow) brilliantly well in the late 20th century — just as similarly tight control helped Japan to rebuild its economy after the second world war. But now China, like Japan, has become a victim of its own success: its economy has matured so fast that it has outgrown its financial structures. Debt and cash are swirling around in China and cannot easily find a productive home — so they are pouring overseas instead.

这反映出，中国眼下正在应对40年前同样困扰过日本的问题。近几十年来，通过将金融体系置于政府严格管控之下，以牺牲消费者利益的方式引导国内储蓄资金流入工业领域，中国发展起了强大的工业和出口行业。这使中国得以在20世纪末迅猛“发展”（即增长）——正如日本在二战后借助严格管控重振经济一样。但是眼下中国就像日本一样，已经成了自身成功的受害者：经济迅速成熟，金融体系的发展却跟不上。债务和资金在中国四处打转，很难找到有效的投资方式——因此正在流往海外。

Does this mean China is doomed to repeat the next chapter of that Japanese tale — namely, to suffer a humiliating financial crunch? Unsurprisingly, Chinese officials say no. And there are hints that they have learnt some of the lessons from Japan’s past. It is rumoured, for example, that the reason Anbang did not complete its Starwood deal was that the regulator intervened.

这是否意味着中国注定要重演日本故事的下一篇章——发生一场让自己颜面尽失的金融危机？毫无意外，中国官员说不会。同时，有迹象表明，他们已经从日本的过去中吸取了某些教训。例如，听说安邦未完成喜达屋交易的原因是监管机构的干预。

But hubris has a nasty habit of breeding disaster, particularly when combined with oodles of cheap debt. (One oft-ignored point is that Chinese companies such as Anbang have expanded their leverage at startling speed recently.) If I had to make a bet, I’d wager that sooner or later some of these Chinese companies will indeed go bust, along with their lenders; and, inevitably, those trophy assets — such as hotels — will be resold again too.

但是，傲慢往往会催生灾难，特别是在与大量廉价债务相伴的情况下。（有一点很容易被人们忽视，安邦等中国企业近年以惊人的速度提高了其杠杆水平。）如果非要打赌的话，我会押注迟早会有一些中国企业破产，连同借钱给它们的银行一起；同时，那些炫耀性资产——比如酒店——也将不可避免地再次被转卖。

So the next time a politician such as Donald Trump (or anyone else) rails against the Chinese “threat” to America, it is worth thinking about the saga of EIE, LTCB and the Four Seasons Hotel. China’s growth on the world stage has been impressive but its recent “success” in snapping up assets could end up hurting China more than the west.

所以，当下次再有像唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)——或者其他什么人——之类的政客抱怨中国对美国构成的“威胁”时，人们应该想想EIE、长期信贷银行和四季酒店的那段故事。中国在世界舞台上的崛起令人印象深刻，但是中国近年在抢购资产方面的“成功”最终给自身造成的损害可能比对西方的损害更甚。

Maybe somebody should take Trump (or Sanders or Cruz) to that Four Seasons Hotel for lunch — and buy him a Beanie Baby doll as a memento.

或许应该有人请特朗普（或者桑德斯，或者科鲁兹）去四季酒店吃顿午餐——送他一个豆豆娃作纪念品。