This year has all signs of becoming another bumper year for Chinese overseas mergers and acquisition activity. In the first three months alone, the total value of cross-border deals nearly reached 2015 annual totals ($101bn and $109bn, respectively).

对中国的海外并购活动来说，有种种迹象表明今年又是一个丰收年。仅在今年头3个月，跨境协议总价值就达到1010亿美元，接近2015年全年1090亿美元的水平。

High-profile deals from the last three months include: Dalian Wanda’s $3.5bn acquisition of Legendary Pictures, a US media company, Haier’s $5.4bn takeover of GE’s appliances unit and most notably ChemChina’s record-setting $43bn bid for Syngenta, a Swiss-based agri-business group.

过去3个月备受瞩目的交易包括：大连万达(Dalian Wanda)以35亿美元收购美国传媒公司传奇影业(Legendary Pictures)；海尔(Haier)以54亿美元收购通用电气(GE)旗下的家电业务；最著名的是中国化工(ChemChina)以430亿美元的创纪录金额收购瑞士农业企业先正达(Syngenta)。

However, all of this overseas business activity is occurring against a backdrop of a Chinese domestic economy that is facing myriad challenges with a slower GDP growth forecast of 6.5 per cent, reduced domestic demand and decreasing industrial profits not to mention industrial overcapacity.

然而，所有这些海外商业活动是在这样的背景下发生的：中国国内经济面临大量挑战，GDP增速预计放缓至6.5%，内需下降和工业利润缩减，更别提还有工业产能过剩。

Now the outlook for Chinese overseas M&A may not be as bright as it seems despite the impressive Q1 figures. Chinese corporate investors are finding that it is no longer sufficient simply to “write the biggest check,” as their deals face heightened scrutiny from overseas businesses and governments alike.

尽管一季度并购数据抢眼，但中国海外并购前景可能不像表面看上去的那么光明。中国企业投资者发现，仅仅“开最大数额的支票”不再管用了，因为他们的交易面临外国企业和政府的严格审查。

We believe there are several reasons why 2016 won’t be the record year everyone is predicting, and why overseas M&A figures originating from China may take a dip before China becomes an enduring M&A player on the international stage.

我们认为，2016年将不会是大家意料中的创纪录年，而且在中国成为国际舞台上长期的并购玩家之前，中国的海外并购数据也可能出现下降，原因有下面几点：

Reason 1: Increasing Pressure for Transparency

理由1：要求提高透明度的压力上升

When Anbang dropped its $14bn bid for Starwood, a US hotels group, a lot of uncertainty prevailed: would this unlisted provincial car insurer founded in 2004 finally have access to the financing it claimed?

当安邦(Anbang)放弃以140亿美元竞购美国酒店集团喜达屋(Starwood)的时候，存在许多未解的问题，比如说，这家创立于2004年、迄今没有上市的省级汽车保险公司最终真能获得其宣称的融资吗？

Although its political connections (the company’s chairman Wu Xiaohui is married to a grand-daughter of China’s former paramount leader Deng Xiaoping) would normally have helped, they seem to have backfired as Wall Street appeared suspicious of party and government influence.

尽管该公司的政治关系通常来说会有帮助——安邦董事长吴小晖是中国前最高领导人邓小平的外孙女婿——但它们现在似乎适得其反，因为华尔街似乎怀疑该公司受到党和政府的影响。

The Anbang deal is not alone. As China’s role in international M&A continues to intensify, Chinese firms are coming under increased pressure by those involved in these deals for greater transparency with regard to ownership structure, funding sources and corporate governance. It’s not just about going out with the highest bid,but also the need to ensure the buyers will be good stewards of the business post-acquisition. Due diligence works both ways.

安邦交易并非个例。随着中国在国际并购舞台上的角色日益上升，中国企业日益受到来自交易相关方的压力，它们被要求提高在所有权架构、融资来源和企业治理方面的透明度。这不仅是说卖家要与出价最高的谈判，而且还需要确保买家在收购后成为公司的好管家。尽职调查在这两方面都有作用。

Meanwhile, the European Union is looking deeply into granting – or not – China a market economy status and finalising a Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT). Although these two would certainly help transparency and rules, market economy status looks increasingly unlikely this year, and BIT is under negotiation. The UK is also implementing rules requiring greater transparency. It just introduced a new law that stipulates all businesses which own more than 25 per cent of a British asset must keep a register of the people who have control over them.

与此同时，欧盟正在认真考虑关于授予（或者不授予）中国市场经济地位、以及敲定双边投资协定(BIT)的事情。尽管这些无疑会有助于提高透明度和完善规则，但越来越明显的是，中国今年不太可能获得市场经济地位，而BIT还在谈判当中。英国也在推行旨在加大透明度的规则。它刚刚推出一项新规，要求所有持有一项英国资产逾25%股份的企业必须将控制人登记在册。

Reason 2: Growing National Security Concerns

理由2：日益加剧的国家安全担忧

In addition to overseas investment bankers and acquisition targets, foreign governments are growing increasingly wary of Chinese acquirers. There are obvious discrepancies between the US and European approaches, as neither the EU – nor individual member states – have set any kind of system to monitor inward investment such as the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US (CFIUS).

除了海外投资银行家和收购目标以外，外国政府也越来越对中国买家感到警惕。美国和欧洲的做法存在明显差异——无论是欧盟还是欧盟成员国都没有设立像美国外国投资委员会(CFIUS)这样的机构来监督外来投资。

In the US, the situation is quite different: In March 2016, ZTE, the state-owned Chinese telecommunications firm, was added to a sanctions-related blacklist by the US government for national security reasons and in Europe a recent $3bn deal with Chinese investors was recently dropped by Philips Lighting because of US pressures.

在美国，情况截然不同：2016年3月，中国国有电信设备制造商中兴(ZTE)被美国政府以国家安全为由列入制裁黑名单；在欧洲，飞利浦照明(Philips Lighting)最近迫于美国方面的压力，放弃了与中国投资者的30亿美元的交易。

Governments, businesses and the public naturally fear what they don’t understand. The less clear their investment objectives are for acquiring international businesses, the more scrutiny and regulatory challenges Chinese firms will face.

各国政府、企业和公众自然对他们不了解的事情感到担忧。在收购国际企业的时候，投资目的越不清晰，中国企业面临的审查和监管挑战就越多。

Reason 3: Debt Pressure is Rising

理由3：债务压力日益上升

On the same day Anbang declared that it would abandon its bid for Starwoods, the Shanghai-based Fosun group announced that it would stop pursuing overseas acquisitions.

就在安邦宣布放弃竞购喜达屋的同一天，上海复星集团(Fosun)宣布，该公司将暂停寻求海外收购。

Over the last two years, Fosun has acquired approximately 50 firms across a variety of sectors, which include French resort operator Club Méditerranée, Greek retailer Folli Follie and a series of high profile insurance (Portugal’s Caixa Seguros, Meadowbrook) and real estate assets. According to reports, Fosun’s net debt rose to 112 per cent of equity attributable to shareholders at the end of 2014 and ended last year at 91 per cent.

在过去两年里，复星收购了涵盖不同行业的近50家企业，包括法国度假村集团地中海俱乐部(Club Méditerranée)、希腊零售商Folli Follie、一系列知名保险公司（葡萄牙的Caixa Seguros和美国的Meadowbrook）以及房地产资产。据报道，复星的净债务与股东权益比率在2014年底升至112%，去年末为91%。

Fosun’s decision demonstrates that Chinese firms do not have unlimited access to funding to help advance overseas M&A initiatives. As with companies from any other country, there is a limit to how much a single Chinese firm can absorb and integrate while pushing forward with new investment initiatives. The handful of companies that repeatedly appear in the headlines will likely need to follow Fosun’s lead and reassess their long-term global M&A strategy before diving into the next deal.

复星的决定表明，中国企业不会获得无限融资来帮助推进海外并购行动。与其他所有国家的企业一样，一家中国企业在推进新投资计划的同时所能吸收和整合的资产数量是有限的。屡次出现在新闻头条的几家公司可能需要效仿复星，在准备开展新交易前重新评估它们的长期全球并购战略。

We are not saying that the massive increase in M&A originating from China will reach an end, but that there is likely going to be a correction as Chinese companies adjust to the fact that successful deals are no longer sealed simply by writing the biggest check. While the investment capital will certainly help, executives will need to be able to answer questions about where the capital is coming from, who owns the company and how the acquisition will be managed within the existing business portfolio.

我们并非说来自中国的并购活动将不再大规模增加，而是说，由于如今仅凭开出最大额支票已不能保证成功签署协议，中国公司将需要适应这一事实，因此中企海外并购活动可能出现调整。尽管投资资本当然会有所帮助，但高管们将需要能够回答关于资金来源、公司所有人以及在现有业务结构下如何管理新收购业务的问题。