The “increasingly disappointing” world economy is facing the threat of a “synchronised slowdown” and mounting risks including another bout of financial market turmoil and a political backlash against globalisation, the International Monetary Fund warned.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告称，“日益令人失望的”世界经济面临“同步放缓”威胁以及越来越多的风险，包括又一波金融市场动荡和反对全球化的政治反弹。

In its semi-annual World Economic Outlook, the IMF yesterday reduced its global growth forecast for 2016 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.2 per cent, downgrading its expectations for a wide range of advanced and emerging economies.

在昨日发表的半年度《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中，IMF把2016年全球经济增长预测下调0.2个百分点，至3.2%，并调降了其对多个发达和新兴经济体的预期。

The IMF said the world economy was increasingly vulnerable to “downside risks” including further market turmoil in the wake of this year’s China-led downturn as well as the political consequences of lacklustre growth since the 2008 global financial crisis. “Growth has been too slow for too long,” said Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s chief economist, warning of a widespread sense that too many people were being left behind.

IMF表示，世界经济越来越容易受到“下行风险”的冲击，包括市场在今年初遭遇中国开启的跌势之后的进一步动荡，以及2008年全球金融危机爆发后增长乏力的政治后果。“经济增长太慢，而且持续太久了，”IMF首席经济学家莫里斯•奥布斯特菲尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)表示。他警告称，目前各方普遍感觉有太多人落在后面。

“Across Europe the political consensus that once propelled the European project is fraying,” he said, arguing that the refugee crisis and recent terrorist attacks had combined with economic pressures, including stagnant wages, to lead to a “rising tide of inward-looking nationalism”.

“在整个欧洲，一度推动欧洲一体化的政治共识正在出现裂缝，”他表示。他认为，难民危机和最近的恐怖袭击与经济压力（包括工资停滞）相结合，催生了一股“内向型的民族主义浪潮”。

He said that in the US a backlash against globalisation “threatens to halt or even reverse the postwar trend of evermore open trade”.

他说，在美国，针对全球化的反弹“可能遏止甚至逆转战后贸易越来越开放的趋势”。

In a sign of its concern, the IMF called for policymakers in large economies to identify policies “that could be implemented quickly if there are signs that global downside risks are about to materialise” to prevent a slip back into global recession.

突显其感到担忧的一个迹象是，IMF呼吁大型经济体的政策制定者拟定相关政策，这些政策“在迹象显示全球下行风险即将成真的情况下可以快速实施”，以免重新陷入全球经济衰退。

The IMF said that the threat of synchronised slowdown required “bold multilateral actions to boost growth and contain risks at this critical stage of the global recovery”.

IMF表示，同步放缓的威胁要求“采取大胆的多边行动，在当前全球经济复苏的关键阶段刺激增长，遏制风险”。

Its gloomy forecasts include downgrades for the growth prospects of large economies ranging from the US, which it now expects to grow by just 1.9 per cent this year, to Japan (0.5 per cent), the euro area (2.4 per cent) and the UK, which it also expects to slow to 1.9 per cent growth this year.

该组织在其暗淡的预测中调降了各大经济体的增长前景，它现在预计美国今年增长2.4%，日本增长0.5%，欧元区增长1.5%，而英国今年的增长预测也被下调至1.9%。

The one bright spot among big economies was China, which the IMF said it now believed would grow 6.5 per cent in 2016, up from its previous forecast of 6.3 per cent growth, thanks to short-term stimulus measures pushed through by Beijing to meet politically loaded growth targets. But even that came with a caveat. The IMF said it was downgrading its longer-term forecasts for China as the better short-term picture was built on expanding credit and other unhealthy policies that would come at a cost to growth later.

大型经济体当中的一个亮点是中国；IMF表示，它现在相信中国经济在2016年将增长6.5%，高于其此前预测的6.3%，这得益于北京方面为了达到政治意义重大的增长目标而出台的短期刺激措施。但就连这个好消息也是带有警示的。IMF表示，它调降了对中国的长期预测，因为较好的短期局面是建立在扩大信贷等不健康政策基础上的，这些政策未来将给经济增长带来代价。