Anbang has raised the stakes in the bidding battle for Starwood Hotels & Resorts with its latest $14bn offer — but its reliance on high-cost borrowing carries plenty of risks, analysts have warned.

在争夺喜达屋酒店及度假村国际集团(Starwood Hotels & Resorts)的竞购大战中，安邦保险集团(Anbang)已将价码加到了140亿美元。然而分析师警告称，安邦依赖于高成本筹资的做法蕴含着很多风险。

Such funding has fuelled Anbang Insurance Group’s global shopping spree — including its $2bn purchase of the Waldorf Astoria — and seen it evolve from an obscure Chinese car insurer into a $290bn global conglomerate with investment strategies more akin to the world of private equity.

借助这类资金，安邦在全球各地大肆收购，包括以20亿美元收购纽约华尔道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria hotel)；它从一家不太有名的中国汽车保险公司，成长为资产规模达2900亿美元、投资策略更接近私募股权(PE)基金的全球性综合集团。

Mystery and speculation surrounds the identity of investors who boosted Anbang’s registered capital fivefold in an eight-month period in 2014. But chairman Wu Xiaohui’s ability to draw on political connections to raise equity is only one part of the story.

2014年帮助安邦在8个月内将注册资本金扩大4倍的神秘投资者引发了外界的猜测，不过，安邦董事长吴小晖利用他在政界的关系筹集股本的能力只是整个故事的一部分。

Anbang collects 44 per cent of its insurance premiums from the sale of so-called universal life policies, high-yielding wealth management products that combine a death benefit with an investment component that guarantees a payout during the policyholder’s lifetime. For many of these, the savings or “cash value” component dwarfs the protection element.

安邦44%的保费收入来自所谓的“万能型寿险产品”，这是一种高收益理财产品，由死亡保险金和投资收益（保证投保人在世时获得一定收益）组成。许多万能险的储蓄或“现金价值”成分远大于风险保障成分。

Anbang’s premiums from universal insurance products grew 306 per cent in 2015 to Rmb49bn ($7.5bn), compared with industry-wide growth of 95 per cent, according to regulatory data. Such growth helped Anbang climb the Chinese premium ranks among life insurers from 40th in 2012 to fourth place last year.

根据监管机构的数据，2015年安邦来自万能险产品的保费增长了3.06倍，达到490亿元人民币（合75亿美元），相比之下全行业增长率只有95%。得益于这样的增长速度，安邦在中国寿险公司保费排行榜上从2012年的第40名升至去年的第4名。

Sam Radwan, partner at Enhance, a consultancy that advises several midsized Chinese insurers, says his clients fear the entry of Anbang to markets where they are active.

咨询公司Enhance的客户包括多家中等规模的中国保险公司，该公司合伙人萨姆•拉德万(Sam Radwan)表示，他的客户们都担心安邦会进入他们所在的市场。

“They basically told me, ‘once Anbang comes to town, we know we’re not going to be able to compete.’ They tend to offer higher returns.”

“他们基本上都这么说，‘我们知道，一旦安邦进场，我们没法与其竞争’。安邦往往提供更高的回报。”

Yet this strategy carries risks, analysts say. Higher yields enable Anbang to grab market share but also force the group to chase higher returns — and take on greater risk — to meet promises to investors.

不过，分析师表示安邦这种策略是有风险的。提供高收益令安邦能够抢占市场份额，但也会迫使该集团追逐更高回报——从而也承担更大风险——以兑现对投资者的承诺。

Traditional insurers invest mainly in conservative assets such as government bonds and try to earn profits by using actuarial skill to minimise payouts. Anbang more closely resembles a private equity fund, where capital is expensive and investment returns drive profits.

传统保险公司主要投资于政府债券之类的保守资产，并利用精算技能尽量减少支付，以此赚取利润。安邦则更像一家私募股权基金，这类基金的资金成本高昂，利润主要来自投资收益。

There are also worries about liquidity risk. Many WMPs carry short maturities, while assets such as luxury hotels cannot be quickly sold. Universal insurance policies from Anbang and other insurers carry a headline maturity of five or 10 years but carry an option to cash out after one or two, sometimes with no penalty.

还有一种担忧是与流动性风险有关。许多理财产品的期限很短，而豪华酒店之类的资产无法迅速出售。安邦及其他保险公司所售万能险的期限大多为5年或10年，但投保人也可选择在一两年后退保把钱取出来，有时候还无需缴纳违约金。

“There is an issue with selling long policies for the short term. But you have to invest in long-term assets like equity or infrastructure debt if you want to generate the high returns,” said Zhang Fenghua, insurance analyst at China Chengxin Credit Ratings. “This can lead to liquidity mismatch.”

中诚信国际信用评级(CCXI)保险业分析师张凤华表示：“将长期险按短期产品销售会有问题。但是，如果你希望产生高回报，就只能投资长期资产，像股权或基础设施债务。这就可能导致流动性错配。”

WMPs have surged in recent years as Chinese savers looked for alternatives to low-yielding bank deposits. Commercial banks are the biggest sellers but regulations limit the assets that lenders can buy. Insurers such as Anbang have benefited from deregulation allowing them greater freedom to invest in equity and real estate.

近些年来，随着中国储户寻找可替代低收益银行存款的投资渠道，理财产品发展迅猛。商业银行是理财产品的最大销售方，然而监管条例却限制了银行可以购买的资产。而安邦等保险公司则从去监管化中得到了好处，这些去监管化措施令它们获得了投资于股权和房地产的更大自由。

Bank WMPs with guaranteed payouts currently offer yields of about 3-4 per cent, while those from insurers reach 5-6 per cent. Yet the true cost of WMP funding to insurers is even higher than the product yield. When sales commissions to banks or online platforms such as Alibaba's Taobao are included, the cost to the insurer may reach 7-8 per cent.

目前银行理财产品的收益率约在3%到4%，而保险公司同类产品的收益率则达到5%到6%。不过，保险公司通过销售理财产品获取资金的真实成本要高于产品的收益率。如果将付给银行或阿里巴巴(Alibaba)旗下淘宝网(Taobao)等在线平台的销售佣金包括在内，保险公司的资金成本或达到7%到8%。

To be sure, Anbang’s solvency ratio is among the highest in the industry, and analysts do not expect near-term problems. But Mr Radwan says the experience of Japan and Taiwan shows that aggressive selling can sow the seeds of future disaster if falling interest rates depress asset returns for insurers committed to paying high yields.

诚然，论偿债能力比率，安邦排在业内最高之列，分析师也预计该集团近期内不会出现问题。然而，拉德万表示，日本和台湾的经验证明，激进的销售模式可能播下未来发生灾难的种子。对于承诺提供高收益的保险公司来说，一旦利率下滑抑制了资产回报率，这种灾难就会发生。

“(Mr Wu) is building an atomic bomb. It may work out fine, or it may explode in a big way,” said Mr Radwan.

拉德万表示：“（吴小晖）在造一枚原子弹，可能进展顺利，也可能猛烈爆炸。”

Regulators are aware of the risks. Last week Caixin, a respected financial news website, reported that Chinese regulators may block the Strategic and Starwood deals because they would put Anbang on the wrong side of a regulation limiting foreign investments by Chinese insurers to no more than 15 per cent of total assets.

监管机构对相关风险已有所察觉。就在上周，受尊敬的财经新闻网站财新网(Caixin)报道称，中国监管机构可能会否决安邦对Strategic和喜达屋的收购交易，原因是这两宗交易或致安邦违反有关中国保险公司境外投资不得超出总资产15%的监管规定。

“If there is any risk that the takeover activities will slow, it would likely be due to tighter regulations of bidders’ financial leverage,” Vincent Chan, head of China research at Credit Suisse, wrote in a recent report.

瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)中国研究主管陈昌华(Vincent Chan)在近日一份报告中写道：“如果说有什么风险因素会使收购活动放缓，那很可能是由对竞购者财务杠杆的规定收紧造成的。

“China’s insurance regulatory agency has already stated concerns about the usage of funds raised from insurance products to support these bids.”

“中国保险业监管机构已经表达了对利用险资支持此类收购活动的担忧。”

Anbang could not be reached for comment.

记者未能联系上安邦请其置评。