Asia’s tycoons are wrestling with two threats to the continued wealth and wellbeing of their family businesses, say bankers in Hong Kong and Singapore, the continent’s financial hubs.

亚洲两大金融中心香港和新加坡的银行家们表示，亚洲企业大亨们正在竭力应对影响他们家族企业财富和福祉持续增长的两大威胁。

The first is how to diversify away from the stuttering Chinese economy, but the second is more fundamental: how to cope with the “enemy within”, in the shape of siblings scrapping to take over their parents’ hard-built enterprises.

第一个问题是如何多元化投资，减少对步履不稳的中国经济的敞口。第二个问题则更为根本：如何应对“内患”，即家族成员争抢父辈辛苦创建的企业所构成的潜在威胁。

The way in which leading businesses in Hong Kong are dealing with these challenges has transfixed wealth managers across the region. Li Ka-shing, one of Asia’s richest investors, has continued to buy foreign assets while restructuring his interests to ease succession planning, and the dust is beginning to settle after a family power struggle for the Sun Hung Kai Properties empire, owned by the Kwok clan.

香港各大企业应对这些挑战的方式，简直让亚洲财富管理行业的人士目瞪口呆。亚洲最富裕的投资者之一李嘉诚不断收购外国资产，同时对名下产业进行重组以平稳推进接班规划，而郭氏家族旗下的新鸿基地产(Sun Hung Kai Properties)帝国在经过一场家族权力争斗之后，继承问题开始尘埃落定。

“What keeps these patriarchs awake at night is succession to the next generation,” says Kevin Herbert HSBC’s co-head for private banking in north Asia, speaking from his 13th-floor office in the bank’s Norman Foster-designed building. “Our clients have multiple assets in multiple jurisdictions, so structuring this wealth has become just as important as development and management of assets.”

汇丰(HSBC)北亚私人银行业务联席主管凯文•赫伯特(Kevin Herbert)在其位于汇丰大楼的13层办公室里表示：“让这些家族企业的家长们夜不成寐的是下一代的继承问题。我们的客户在不同的司法管辖地有许多资产，因此规划这种财富变得和资产的开发及管理同样重要。”汇丰大楼由诺曼•福斯特(Norman Foster)设计。

Despite their natural affinity for local initial public offerings and investment deals, Asian clients have “woken up to the opportunity” offered by the developed markets of the US, Europe and Australia, he says.

他说，尽管亚洲客户天然青睐本地的IPO及投资交易，但他们已经意识到美国、欧洲和澳大利亚这些发达市场所能提供的“机遇”。

“Li Ka-shing may be selling assets in China, but he still holds a tremendous number of assets there,” Mark Mobius, chairman of the Templeton Emerging Markets Group, recently told a dinner gathering of private banking heads in Singapore’s Fullerton Hotel.

邓普顿新兴市场集团(Templeton Emerging Markets Group)董事长麦朴思(Mark Mobius)最近在新加坡浮尔顿酒店(Fullerton Hotel)的私人银行业高管晚宴上表示：“李嘉诚或许在出售中国的资产，但他在那里仍有大量的资产。”

“Like any wise investor, he is diversifying; he is in Europe, the US and other parts of the world. But there is still an incredibly high amount of growth left in China.”

“与所有聪明的投资者一样，他在进行多元化；他在欧洲、美国以及世界其他地区投资。但中国的增长仍然惊人。”

Many in the wealth management industry say the diversification trend is now unstoppable. “Families are diversifying their assets away from Asia to Europe. This is much broader than just a handful of tycoons in Hong Kong or mainland China,” says Toby Pittaway, who heads the Asia wealth and asset management practice at Oliver Wyman, the consultancy, in Singapore.

许多财富管理行业内的人士表示，多元化如今已成为不可抗拒的趋势。奥纬咨询(Oliver Wyman)驻新加坡的亚洲财富和资产管理业务主管托比•皮特韦(Toby Pittaway)表示：“许多家族正在将资产多元化，减少在亚洲的配置，增加欧洲资产。这种情况是较为多见的，不仅仅是发生在香港或中国内地的少数几个大亨身上。”

The shift is accelerating. Given the uncertainty around the renminbi, the Chinese currency, and the future for domestic stocks, more and more Asian investors are seeking advice on global portfolio diversification, he says.

这种转移正在加速。他说，鉴于人民币以及中国国内股市前景的不确定性，越来越多的亚洲投资者寻求全球多元化投资的建议。

In particular, Chinese households are looking for ways to exchange renminbi-denominated assets for US dollar holdings, says Ning Zhu, deputy dean at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance (SAIF). Many, having used up their annual $50,000 foreign currency quotas, are turning to “internet financing companies” specialising in international investments, which are fast becoming China’s new wealth management platforms.

上海高级金融学院(SAIF)副院长朱宁表示，特别是，中国家庭正设法将人民币计价资产换成美元资产。许多人用光了每人每年5万美元的外汇购买额度，于是转向专事国际投资的“互联网融资公司”，这类公司正迅速成为中国新的财富管理平台。

“Chinese wealth is still severely underdiversified in terms of both currency and geographical regions,” says Zhu. “But the market crash has shaken many domestic investors’ confidence in the regulators’ ability to deliver what they once promised.”

朱宁表示：“就货币种类和地理区域来说，中国财富多元化的程度仍然非常低。但市场暴跌动摇了国内许多投资者的信心，他们不再相信监管机构有能力兑现曾经许下的承诺。”

International banks are benefiting from this asset shift, he says. While domestic investments are seen as run of the mill, Chinese entrepreneurs and officials are becoming more willing to pay US and Swiss banks in Hong Kong to recommend allocations and give advice on investing overseas.

他说，跨国银行正受益于这种资产转移。人们认为中国境内投资乏善可陈，而中国企业家和官员们越来越愿意向香港的美国和瑞士银行付费获得资产配置和海外投资方面的建议。

In the past, wealthy Asian customers bought apartments in Hong Kong, Singapore, China and Thailand, says Michel Longhini, chief executive of private banking at Switzerland’s Union Bancaire Privée, which recently bought the Asian division of Coutts, the UK wealth manager.

瑞士联合私立银行(Union Bancaire Privée,简称UBP)的私人银行业务首席执行官龙基利(Michel Longhini)表示，在过去，富裕的亚洲客户在香港、新加坡、中国内地和泰国购买公寓。瑞士联合私立银行最近收购了英国财富管理公司Coutts的亚洲分公司。

“Today, these clients are seeing these same kinds of opportunities in Spain, where there is significant rebuilding activity,” he says.

他说：“如今，这些客户在西班牙看到了同样的机遇——西班牙正在展开大规模的重建活动。”

Swiss banks are doing brisk business with local clients in Hong Kong, some of whom spread their accounts between up to 40 private banks.

瑞士各银行与香港本地客户之间业务繁忙，其中一些客户在40家私人银行开设了账户。

Vincent Duhamel, head of Asia for Lombard Odier, mentions one Hong Kong tycoon, who, despite taking high risks, has built up a successful business over three decades and has recently become a client of the bank, attracted by its safe, traditional image.

隆巴德•奥迪耶(Lombard Odier)的亚洲业务主管樊尚•迪阿梅尔(Vincent Duhamel)举了一位香港大亨的例子。这位大亨尽管冒了很大的风险，但他在过去30年里创业成功，最近受到该行安全、传统形象的吸引而成为其客户。

“We told him that we cannot compete with his returns, growing assets 30 per cent each year for 30 years,” says Duhamel. “But we can put a bit aside and give him a solid, but not excessive, return for a long period of time. The only guarantee is that we will still be here 30 years from now, and we will not allow any other activities to distract us.”

迪阿梅尔表示：“我们告诉他，30年来他的资产年均增长30%，我们不可能与他的这种回报率相媲美。但我们可以留出一小部分资产，给他稳定但不会非常高的长期回报。唯一的保证是，30年后我们仍在这里，我们不会让其他任何活动分心。”

Asian businesses’ preference for buying property in southern Europe rather than investing their money in Greater China stems partly from the increasing unpredictability of the Chinese authorities.

亚洲企业倾向于购买南欧国家的房地产而不是投资于大中华地区，一部分原因是中国当局越来越不可预测。

“There are too many imponderables when the authorities start to intervene in the market,” says Roger Bacon, the Hong Kong-based head of managed investments for Asia at Citi Private Bank.

花旗私人银行(Citi Private Bank)驻香港的亚洲优选投资主管罗杰•培根(Roger Bacon)表示：“当中国当局开始在市场上干预时，就有太多不可估量的因素了。”

Recent market meddling includes the notorious “circuit breaker”, a mechanism designed to stop free-falling prices. It was triggered twice in one week at the beginning of January when stocks fell 7 per cent during a trading session. Rather than calming investors, traders panicked even more, the mechanism was suspended and Xiao Gang, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the regulator, tendered his resignation.

最近的市场干预包括闹得沸沸扬扬的旨在阻止股市暴跌的“熔断机制”。今年1月初，“熔断机制”在一个星期内被触发两次，股指一个交易日内就暴跌7%。“熔断机制”未能安抚投资者的情绪，反而让交易员更加恐慌，随后该机制被暂停，中国证监会(CSRC)主席肖钢递交了辞呈。

This follows last year’s reprimands to ICBC bank staff for hosting extravagant dinners, and the detention of a number of China’s business tycoons “to assist the authorities with their investigations”, according to the official line usually given.

去年中国工商银行(ICBC)员工因举办豪华晚宴而遭到训诫，而多名中国企业大亨被拘留——根据通常给出的官方口径——“以协助官方调查”。

“There is a new self-confidence, a badge of honour, mixed with a sense of entitlement among the princelings running China’s private equity funds,” says Anant Deboor, head of the Singapore office at The Partners branding consultancy, of the financial practices of the “Fuerdai”, Mandarin for China’s second generation of wealthy. “But sometimes there is a dark side to this.”

品牌咨询机构The Partners的新加坡办公室负责人阿南•德波(Anant Deboor)在谈到中国“富二代”的金融活动时表示：“中国运营私人股本基金的‘太子党’有一种新的自信和荣誉感，伴随着一种特权意识，但有时也有阴暗的一面。”

Some Asian asset managers, even in the relatively liberal Chinese special administrative region of Hong Kong, are ready to praise the harsh regulatory regime.

一些亚洲资产管理经理，甚至是香港这个相对自由的中国行政特区的资产管理经理，乐于赞扬严厉的监管体制。

“Participants in ‘rat trading’ are being locked up,” says Peng Choy, chief executive of Harvest Global Investments, the international arm of one of China’s leading fund houses, referring to the practice of traders buying stocks on their personal accounts before a purchase for their asset management company.

嘉实国际资产管理公司(HGI)行政总裁蔡秉华(Peng Choy)表示：“现在正在抓‘老鼠仓’的参与者。”他指的是交易员利用个人账户抢在其所在资产管理公司买入某只股票之前买入的行为。香港嘉实国际资产管理公司是中国一家主要基金公司嘉实基金旗下的国际子公司。

“Some people think they can bribe their way up, but that is history and these are the people going to jail today. China is coming out of the old school as more and more international investors invest in the market and expect transparency.”

“一些人认为他们可以靠贿赂搞定，但那是过去，如今这些人全都会坐牢。随着越来越多的国际投资者投资于中国市场并希望增强透明度，中国正摆脱过去的做派。”

Choy is a fan of some of the mechanisms designed to control market movements, saying circuit breakers that limit stock price surges prevent retail investors from revelling in, what he calls, “intraday euphoria”.

蔡秉华支持出台一些旨在限制市场波动的机制，他表示，限制股价剧烈波动的熔断机制可防止散户陷于“盘中狂躁”的状态。

But many commentators consider the regulators of these activities to be out of touch. “Chinese people do not trust the regulators, not due to their lack of fiduciary concern or because they think they are ill-willed, but because they are not educated or connected to markets,” says Charles Chang, a finance professor at SAIF in Shanghai.

但许多评论员认为这些活动的监管机构不了解市场。上海高级金融学院的金融学教授张纯信(Charles Chang)表示：“中国人不信任监管机构，这不是因为后者缺乏信托责任或者是因为他们认为监管机构心怀恶意，而是因为这些监管机构没有接受过培训或者与市场脱节。”

He gives the latest austerity drive as an example. Over the past three years, government officials have been banned from taking part in education programmes at both domestic and foreign business schools, which are equated with pursuing a luxury lifestyle, says Chang.

他举了最新的节俭运动的例子。张纯信表示，在过去3年里，政府官员被禁止参加国内外商学院的培训项目，这被视为追求奢华的生活方式。

“The irony is that these are exactly the type of people who need to be educated, but are now disqualified from these programmes. How are they supposed to learn why circuit breakers don’t work or how an IPO is registered and structured?”

“具有讽刺意味的是，恰恰是这些人需要接受培训，但现在他们却没有资格参与这些项目。怎么能指望他们明白熔断机制不奏效的原因或者IPO的注册和架构方式呢？”

This disappointment is echoed by institutional investors such as Alberto Forchielli, a prolific blogger and managing partner at Mandarin Capital, the private equity firm.

高产的博客作者、私人股本公司曼达林基金(Mandarin Capital)管理合伙人傅格礼(Alberto Forchielli)等机构投资者也表达出同样的失望。

“The Chinese are disenchanted and think that the old bureaucracy that went into retirement with the current government was more capable than the one they have now,” says Forchielli, who describes the Chinese as speculative but prudent investors, prepared to spread their risk internationally. “As long as China offered higher marginal returns, they were willing to twist their portfolio more towards China, but now the game is over.”

傅格礼表示：“中国人感到心灰意冷，认为本届政府上台后退下来的那批官员比在职官僚更有能力。”傅格礼将中国人描述为投机性强、但谨慎的投资者，期望在国际上分散他们的风险。“只要中国提供更高的边际回报，他们愿意加大对中国的投资组合，但现在游戏结束了。”

Emigration has also contributed to the diversification trend. Many wealthy Chinese families regard the US, UK or Australian as desirable places to live, offering personal security, better-quality education for their children and a higher standard of healthcare.

移民也加剧了多元化投资趋势。中国许多富裕家庭认为美国、英国或澳大利亚是宜居之地，这些地方有人身安全保障、能为他们的孩子提供更为优质的教育而且还有更高标准的医疗服务。

Among the most popular emigration routes is the US EB-5 visa, which provides a green card for foreign nationals investing a minimum of $500,000 in US infrastructure projects.

最受欢迎的移民途径包括美国EB-5签证项目，此类签证为在美国基础设施项目上资50万美元以上的外国公民提供绿卡。

“These investment projects are 100 per cent about getting the green card,” says Young Min Ban, director of the Delaware Valley Regional Center.

特拉华山谷区域中心(Delaware Valley Regional Center)总监潘永民表示：“这些投资项目百分百都与获得绿卡有关。”

Ban spends three months of the year in Asia, working predominantly with mainland Chinese clients he matches to US job-creation projects in infrastructure.

潘永民一年有3个月呆在亚洲，主要是为中国内地客户与美国创造就业的基础设施项目牵线搭桥。

As yet, it appears to be only the younger generation who want to emigrate. “From what I see, older wealthy Chinese do not want to leave. They use the EB-5 scheme to allow their children to continue in higher education,” says Ban, who estimates that there are at least 250,000 students from mainland China in the US. “Successful business people in their 40s like their life in China.”

迄今为止，似乎只有较为年轻的一代人才希望移民。潘永民表示：“就我看来，较为年长的中国富人不想离开。他们利用EB-5项目来让自己的孩子继续高等教育。”他估计，美国至少有25万来自中国内地的学生。“40多岁的成功商人喜欢中国的生活。”

Indeed, the lure of returns from business and investments in China will remain strong. The country has become one of the foremost destinations for Temasek, Singapore’s influential state investment company. Chinese investments account for 27 per cent of its S$266bn ($190bn) portfolio.

实际上，中国商业和投资回报的吸引力依然非常大。中国已经成为新加坡颇具影响力的国家投资公司淡马锡(Temasek)最重要的投资目的地之一。在淡马锡2660亿新元（合1900亿美元）的投资组合中，投向中国的投资占到27%。

The fund was previously regarded as championing Singapore’s economy above others. However, some expect China to eventually overtake Singapore as its biggest investment market, buoyed by a new tier of start-up entrepreneurs, including a tech-savvy, returning diaspora.

淡马锡早先被视为新加坡经济的最大支柱。然而，一些人预计中国最终将超过新加坡，成为该公司最大的投资市场，包括一些技术大拿在内的新的初创企业家阶层回到中国对此起到了推动作用。

“We think that China’s innovation, especially the internet business model, has taken the lead on a global scale and new advantages have arisen,” says Wu Yibing, Temasek’s head of China. He cites the “cutting-edge” positions of technology companies such as Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent.

淡马锡中国区总裁吴亦兵表示：“我们认为中国的创新（尤其是互联网商业模式）在全球居于领先位置，而且还出现了新的优势。”他提到了百度(Baidu)、阿里巴巴(Alibaba)和腾讯(Tencent)等科技公司的“前沿”地位。

“We believe there will be more and more global corporate champions emerging from China, such as Didi Kuaidi [the smartphone-based taxi service], in which we have invested.”

“我们相信，中国将会出现越来越多的全球冠军企业，比如我们投资的滴滴快的(Didi Kuaidi)。”滴滴快的是一家基于智能手机的叫车服务公司。

As much as these Asian institutions are searching for the next Facebook in Silicon Valley, they are also keeping their eyes focused on China. Missing the next Li Ka-shing would resonate for generations to come.

这些亚洲机构不仅在硅谷寻找下一个Facebook，而且也继续关注着中国。错过下一个李嘉诚会让几代人心有戚戚。