SEATTLE — This holiday season could be remembered as a digital watershed for the games business, the moment when the old way of selling video games — on discs in boxes — finally gave way to downloads.

西雅图——这个圣诞假期可以被视为游戏行业的数码分水岭，以盒装光盘销售游戏的旧方式最终被下载取代。

The industry has been pointed in this direction for years. But the signs of a sharp turning point have piled up in the last month, as new data points have painted conflicting pictures of the game industry.

多年前就有人指出，这是电子游戏行业未来的方向。但深刻变革的转折点一直在酝酿当中，直至上个月才真正到来。不过，新的数据为这一行业描绘了种种互相矛盾的画面。

On one hand, recent market research shows that physical game sales declined in November, and GameStop, a leading retailer, reported disappointing earnings that made its stock tumble.

一方面，最近的市场研究显示，11月，实体游戏的销量显著下降，顶尖零售商GameStop的盈利令人失望，导致其股价下跌。

On the other, game companies swear that things are going great. Big titles are setting sales records, and Sony, the leading maker of game consoles, says the latest PlayStation has been selling at a faster clip than any previous generation of the hardware.

另一方面，游戏公司说他们的生意非常好。大公司创下了销售记录，电视游戏设备的顶尖生产者索尼公司称，公司最新的PlayStation的发售比以往每一代的硬件都快。

Why the disparity?

为什么会有这种落差？

A number of factors are at play, but none as significant as the industry’s march toward a future of games downloaded over the Internet rather than bought in stores, analysts said. All mobile games are delivered over the Internet, as are nearly all PC games. But the transition for console games — the biggest segment of the business — has been far slower. Large game files could take hours to download and quickly fill a console’s hard drive.

分析师们说很多因素在起作用，但最重要的是行业的趋势是从互联网下载游戏，而不是从实体店购买游戏。所有手机游戏都是从网上购买的，大多数电脑游戏也是如此。但是电视游戏（这个行业最大的一块）的步伐一直较为缓慢。大型游戏文件需要花好几个小时下载，会很快装满电视游戏设备的硬盘。

Now, faster broadband speeds and the bigger hard drives in the latest generation of consoles are reducing those obstructions.

现在，有了更快的带宽，新一代的电视游戏设备也有了更大的硬盘，这些障碍就消除了。

“It finally feels like the inevitable is becoming the inevitable,” said Evan Wilson, an analyst who follows the game industry for Pacific Crest Securities. “It feels like this is the holiday season where it’s finally having a big impact.”

“最终，不可避免的变化好像真的变得不可避免了，”太平洋皇冠证券(Pacific Crest Securities)负责游戏行业的分析师伊万·威尔逊(Evan Wilson)说。“好像就是这个假期，变革终于产生了巨大影响。”

Electronic Arts, the big games publisher behind Madden and Need for Speed, says about 20 percent of its new console games are now downloaded, compared with around 10 to 15 percent last year. For other publishers, the number may be 25 percent or more.

游戏大厂艺电公司(Electronic Arts)曾经推出《Madden》系列和《极品飞车》(Need for Speed)，它声称，公司推出的电视游戏中，目前有20%是通过下载购买，去年这个数字是10%到15%。其他公司的下载销售比例则占25%或更多。

As a result, it is becoming harder to judge the health of the industry based on sales of physical game discs. NPD Group, a research firm that tracks retail sales in the United States, showed a 7 percent decline in November game sales from the same month a year ago.

因此，要根据实体游戏光碟销量来判断这个行业走势是否良好，就变得更加困难。调查公司NPD集团研究了美国的零售数据，表明今年11月，游戏销量比去年11月下降了7%。

Mr. Wilson of Pacific Crest characterized the figures in the title of a research report: “Shockingly Bad NPD Data Shows Big Physical Challenges.”

太平洋皇冠证券的威尔逊在一份报告的标题中概括了一下：“极糟的NPD数据表明实体销售面临巨大挑战”。

A couple of weeks earlier, there was similarly grim news from GameStop, the big specialty retailer, which blamed a disappointing earnings report for the period ending Oct. 31 on weak new game software and hardware sales.

几周前，大型游戏业零售商GameStop也传来类似的严峻消息，它认为，盈利报表之所以令人失望，主要是由于截至10月31日，新的游戏软件与硬件都销量不佳。

Executives at GameStop caused a further stir when they said one of the most anticipated games of the season, Star Wars: Battlefront, had missed their internal sales forecasts during the quarter. The stock of Electronic Arts, the game’s publisher, fell 5 percent the day of the remarks.

GameStop的管理人员说，本季最受期待的游戏之一《星球大战：前线》(Star Wars: Battlefront)在本季的网络销售没有达到预期，这番话更加令人震惊。消息传出当日，该游戏的发行者艺电公司的股票就下跌了5%。

The numbers were particularly striking because if game sales are ever going to grow, the time is now. The biggest games of the year have just landed on store shelves — including Fallout 4, Call of Duty: Black Ops 3, and Star Wars: Battlefront — and demand for them is running high among holiday gift buyers.

这些数字之所以令人震惊是因为，如果说游戏销量有所增长，那么时间就是现在。今年最大的几个游戏都已经上架，包括《辐射4》(Fallout 4)、《使命召唤12： 黑色行动3》(Call of Duty: Black Ops 3)和《星球大战：前线》。为假日购买礼物的人正好需要买游戏。

What is more, the industry is in the sweet spot of the hardware cycle, when the latest consoles from Sony and Microsoft are in plentiful supply and their prices have come down, and game publishers are cranking out titles that better exploit their capabilities.

此外，在硬件更新的循环中，这个行业正处于有利阶段，索尼和微软最新的电视游戏设备供应充足，价格有所下降，游戏生产商正在推出能尽量利用游戏机新功能的游戏。

Sony, for one, says its console sales have never been better. The company reported that it sold 30.2 million PlayStation 4s worldwide as of late November, just days after the second anniversary of the product. By comparison, it took around two years and two months for Sony to ship about 30 million PlayStation 2s — the previous high-water mark for Sony in the game business.

比如，索尼说，公司的电视游戏机销量之好堪称前所未有。11月，公司在全球售出了3020万台PlayStation 4S电视游戏机，要知道这款产品刚刚推出两年而已。与之相对照，此前索尼花了两年另两个月时间，才售出了3000万台PlayStation 2S——而那是索尼在游戏行业内的上一次高峰。

One factor in NPD’s declining game sales is that the research firm does not include games that are bundled with consoles — an increasingly popular option for buying the machines — in its software sales data. But a much bigger reason is that it does not include digital downloads of games in its monthly tallies of the industry.

NPD统计出游戏销量下降还有另一个原因，那就是该调查公司没有把和电视游戏设备捆绑销售的游戏统计入软件销售数据，而这种捆绑销售方式已经日益为电视游戏机买家所青睐。但是，还有一个更大的原因，那就是它没有把通过数字下载销售的游戏计入每月账目当中。

Liam Callahan, an analyst at NPD, said the firm includes digital sales in a game report that comes out every quarter. For the first nine months of the year, game spending on physical formats was flat compared with the same period in 2014. When digital sales were included, there was an 8 percent increase, he said.

NPD分析师连姆·卡拉汉(Liam Callahan)说，公司把网络销售计入了另一份每季度发表的游戏业统计报告中。他说，在今年的前9个月里，游戏业的实体光盘销售是和2014年同期持平的，如果把网络销售数据加进来，就有8%的增长。

“It’s clear digital downloading is becoming a bigger deal,” said Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Securities.

“显然，数字下载成了更大的交易，”韦德布拉什证券(Wedbush Securities)的分析师迈克尔·帕奇塔(Michael Pachter)说。

After GameStop’s comments about Star Wars: Battlefront rattled investors, a senior executive at Electronic Arts, Peter Moore, said at a conference that there was “no weakness that is perceptible yet in the title.” He reiterated the company’s previous projection that it would sell 13 million copies of the game during its fiscal year.

GameStop对《星球大战：前线》的评价令投资者深感不安，其后，艺电公司的资深执行官彼得·摩尔(Peter Moore)在一次会议上说，“迄今这个游戏没有什么明显的弱点，”他一再重申了公司之前的预测：这个游戏将在本财政年度售出1300万份。

The bigger threat appears to be for retailers that fail to adjust to the changing market. The list of retailers that have been vaporized by the Internet is long, including Blockbuster in movies, Tower Records in music and Virgin Megastores in both.

对于零售商来说，更大的威胁在于它没有能够针对变化的市场进行调整。受网络冲击而消失的零售商是个很长的名单，其中包括销售影碟的Blockbuster，销售唱片的Tower Records，以及二者兼顾的Virgin Megastores。

GameStop has increased its own presence in Internet-delivered games, but those changes have not moved the needle much. The company’s digital revenue in its last quarter amounted to less than 2 percent of its total revenue. There are limits to how much the company can sell digitally, though, since Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo operate the online portals from which the games are downloaded.

GameStop也参与到网络销售游戏中来，但这个举措并没带来多大改变。公司上季度在网络销售方面的业绩仅占总收入的不到2%。不过，公司的网络销售是受到限制的，因为微软、索尼和任天堂把持着游戏下载的门户。

GameStop has tried to diversify beyond video games by acquiring one retail chain that offers wireless products and another that sells and repairs Apple devices. Joey Mooring, a spokesman for GameStop, said the company’s in-store staff members provide guidance for customers. And through its trade-in program for used games, customers can get credits toward the purchase of new games.

GameStop试图令商品多样化，跳出游戏光碟的范畴，它收购了一个出售无线产品的零售连锁，以及另一个出售和维修苹果设备的连锁店。GameStop的发言人乔伊·莫宁(Joey Mooring)说，公司的店内职员会指导顾客购物。而且，通过旧游戏的以旧换新服务，顾客还可以得到信用点，换购新游戏。

“Customers cannot access that expertise downloading a game, nor can they trade in a digital game for currency that can be applied to the purchase of their next game,” Mr. Mooring said in an email.

“有的顾客不具备下载游戏的知识，而且顾客也不能把网络版本的游戏换成现金购买下一个游戏，”莫宁在电子邮件中说。

Eric Lempel, senior vice president for marketing at Sony’s American games division, agreed with the idea that many gamers want to talk to store staff members before making a purchase. The convenience of downloading a game directly to a console is appealing too, though.

索尼美国游戏分部市场部门的资深副总裁埃里克·兰佩尔(Eric Lempel)说同意，很多玩家在购买游戏之前，都想先和店员聊聊。不过直接下载游戏到电视游戏设备的便利性也很诱人。

“A lot of people are finding it easier to buy online,” Mr. Lempel said. “It’s open 24 hours a day.”

“很多人都觉得，还是在网上买更方便，”兰佩尔说，“它是一天24小时开张的。”