As they work quietly in their cubicles, Sitronix’s casually dressed engineers do not appear obvious national security assets.

穿着休闲的矽创电子(Sitronix)工程师们在各自的隔间埋头工作，一眼看上去并不像关系国家安全的“资产”。

But they are treated as such by the Taiwanese government, which has long forbidden investment by mainland Chinese companies in semiconductor design companies such as Sitronix, which dream up chips for display panels in smartphones and cars.

但他们却被台湾政府当作涉密资产对待，后者长期以来一直禁止中国大陆企业投资岛内的半导体设计公司——例如为智能手机及汽车显示器设计芯片的矽创电子。

This ban is intended to stop vital intellectual property leaking away to the mainland — and undermining a $70bn semiconductor industry that dominates Taiwan’s electronics sector, which produces 40 per cent of the island’s exports.

这项禁令旨在阻止关键知识产权泄露至中国大陆，从而危害到主导台湾电子产业的700亿美元的半导体行业。电子产业占台湾出口的40%。

In the 1980s, Taiwan pioneered a new model of chip production, in which each stage is executed by a different company — unlike the integrated model used by producers such as Intel and Samsung Electronics.

上世纪80年代，台湾开创了一种新的芯片生产模式，其中每个环节都由不同的公司完成——不同于英特尔(Intel)、三星电子(Samsung Electronics)等芯片生产商所使用的集成模式。

This “disaggregated” system has steadily grown to account for a quarter of global production last year, according to analysts at Bernstein. And Taiwanese companies continue to play a big role in all three main stages in this system: design, foundry (or manufacture), and assembly and testing.

伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)的分析师们表示，去年，这种“分散”体系已稳步增长至占全球产量的四分之一。而且，台湾企业继续在这一体系的三大主要环节——设计、代工（即制造）以及封装测试——中扮演重要角色。

However, many of the sector’s leaders hope for a change in policy that would enable them to tap rich sources of funding and build lucrative relationships in the Chinese market.

然而，该行业的许多企业领袖都希望政策能有所变革，使他们能够利用丰富的资金源，并在大陆市场建立有利可图的关系。

“We welcome investors from China — it’s no problem,” says Vincent Mao, Sitronix’s chief executive, suggesting that his company might gain Chinese tax advantages if it received mainland investment. “Money is money, right?”

“我们欢迎来自中国大陆的投资者，这没问题，”矽创电子执行长毛颖文(Vincent Mao)说，暗示如果能得到大陆的投资，自己的公司可能会获得大陆的税收优惠。“在商言商，不是吗？”

Growing debate over Chinese investment in semiconductor companies reflects the broader dilemma faced by Taiwan, which remains in political deadlock with the People’s Republic but relies on it for 30 per cent of its trade.

围绕大陆投资岛内半导体企业日益激烈的争论，反映了台湾所面临的更大困境。台湾与中国大陆之间仍陷于政治僵局，但台湾30%的贸易却要依赖大陆。

The issue gained sudden urgency in June 2014, when Beijing rolled out a new semiconductor strategy. This entailed investing up to Rmb1tn ($156bn) over five to 10 years, to cut a reliance on imports for more than 90 per cent of national supply. China spent $241bn buying in semiconductors last year — more than on any other product, beating the $228bn it spent on oil.

2014年6月北京方面推出新的半导体产业发展战略，这一问题的紧迫性陡增。中国计划在未来5到10年向半导体产业投资最高达1万亿元人民币（合1560亿美元），以减少对进口的依赖——目前大陆逾90%的半导体供应靠进口。去年，中国半导体产品进口耗费2410亿美元，超过其他任何产品进口，包括耗费2280亿美元的石油进口。

Although Taiwanese semiconductor executives consider their Chinese peers well behind on technology, the scale of Beijing’s plans has prompted some to call for embracing the wave of investment, to avoid being crushed by it.

虽然台湾的半导体企业高管认为大陆同行在技术上还远远落后，但中国政府的大手笔计划已经促使其中部分人士呼吁拥抱这股投资浪潮，以避免被其压垮。

“No matter what — at the end, [the Chinese] can do it by themselves,” says Pua Khein-Seng, chief executive of Phison, which designs chips that control flash memory drives. “So, before they are ready, we’d do better to join them.”

“不论如何——最终，（大陆人）都能够实现自主制造，”群联电子(Phison)董事长潘健成(Pua Khein-Seng)说，“因此，在他们准备好之前，我们最好加入他们。”群联电子主要设计控制闪存驱动器的芯片。

Advocates of this stance gained some encouragement last month when John Deng, Taiwan’s minister of economic affairs, said the government wanted to lift the ban on mainland investment in semiconductor designers before the end of its term in May. Opinion polls suggest that January’s presidential election is likely to bring a victory for Tsai Ing-wen of the liberal Democratic Progressive party, which tends to be more sceptical of closer ties with Beijing than the ruling Kuomintang.

这一立场的支持者上个月得到了些许鼓励——台湾经济部部长邓振中(John Deng)称，政府希望在明年5月任期结束前，解除对大陆投资入股岛内半导体设计商的禁令。民调显示，民进党(DPP)的蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)很可能在明年1月的总统大选中获胜，比起现在执政的国民党(Kuomintang)，民进党对与北京方面建立更密切关系持更加怀疑的态度。

Mr Deng, though, presented the move as inevitable, saying that the industry could lose competitiveness without Chinese investment — and noting Taiwan’s sluggish economic growth, which turned negative in the third quarter for the first time since 2009.

邓振中认为，此举势在必行，并称，如果没有大陆投资，台湾的半导体行业可能会丧失竞争力，他还提到了台湾疲软的经济增长——第三季度出现了自2009年以来的首次萎缩。

But his words had followed aggressive public lobbying from Chinese semiconductor group Tsinghua Unigroup, controlled by the state through Beijing’s Tsinghua University, which is at the forefront of the new national chip strategy. In June, it had mooted a $23bn takeover of US chipmaker Micron.

但在他发表上述言论之前，由清华大学(Tsinghua University)控股的中国国有半导体集团——紫光集团(Tsinghua Unigroup)已经开始了强大的公开游说。该集团是中国新国家芯片战略的前锋。今年6月，紫光集团曾提出以230亿美元收购美国芯片制造商美光科技(Micron)。

Last month, Zhao Weiguo, Unigroup’s chairman, said he would be interested in investing in MediaTek, Taiwan’s biggest chip designer, if the law were changed to allow it. A few days earlier, he had urged the Chinese government to lobby Taiwan to end the investment block, and suggested a ban on Taiwanese semiconductor imports if these efforts failed.

上月，紫光集团董事长赵伟国称，如果台湾方面的法律改变、允许大陆投资芯片设计的话，他将有兴趣投资台湾最大芯片设计商——联发科(MediaTek)。几天前，他还敦促中国政府游说台湾当局解除投资禁令，并建议，如果此番努力失败，大陆应禁止进口台湾产半导体。

David Ku, MediaTek’s chief financial officer, believes his company and other Taiwanese chipmakers could better compete with western peers by teaming up with Chinese partners, through investment or mergers. “The government should reconsider and open up,” he says.

联发科账务长顾大为(David Ku)认为，如果能与大陆伙伴通过投资或并购进行合作，联发科与其他台湾芯片制造商将能更好地与西方同行竞争。“政府应再考虑考虑，开放投资，”他说。

Mark Li, an analyst at Bernstein, says an end to the investment ban would address the inconsistency of a rule that applies differently to the three types of chip company. It forbids investment in chip designers but not in chip foundries such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation, or chip packaging companies.

伯恩斯坦分析师Mark Li称，投资禁令使得3种不同类型的芯片企业受到区别对待，解除禁令将解决这种规则的不一致性——禁止大陆投资入股芯片设计商，但却不禁止大陆投资入股台积电(TSMC)等芯片代工企业、或芯片封装企业。

“The argument is that design companies have more intellectual property, but that’s not quite true,” he says. “I’d argue that TSMC has higher technology content than MediaTek.”

“他们的理由是，设计企业拥有更多的知识产权，但这并不完全正确，”他说，“我认为，台积电拥有的技术含量比联发科要高。”

Even though mainland Chinese companies are technically allowed to take minority stakes in the non-design semiconductor companies, there have been no examples of this happening. Bough Lin, chairman of Taiwanese chip packaging company Siliconware Precision Industries, suggests this is because the Chinese anticipate obstruction from Taipei’s regulators.

虽然理论上大陆企业可持有台湾非设计类半导体企业的少数股权，但还没有企业这样做。台湾芯片封装企业——矽品精密工業股份有限公司(SPIL)董事长林文伯(Bough Lin)认为，原因在于大陆企业预估会受到台北监管机构的阻挠。

A test of the regulators’ stance will come with a ruling on Unigroup’s proposed $600m acquisition of a 25 per cent stake in Powertech, a Taiwanese group which packages and tests chips. Approval would give a powerful signal of openness to Chinese companies — albeit one which might provoke domestic controversy and could be reversed by the new government.

紫光集团已提议以6亿美元收购台湾芯片封装与测试企业——力成科技(Powertech) 25%股份，台湾监管机构对这一拟议交易的裁决结果，将检验其持有何种立场。批准该协议将向大陆企业发出强烈的开放信号——尽管这可能引发岛内争议，或者被新政府推翻。

“I don’t think it’s going to be easy — certainly [the government] would be attacked,” says Jordan Wu, chief executive of display chip designer Himax.

“我不认为这会一帆风顺——（政府）肯定会受到攻击，”显示器芯片设计商奇景光电(Himax)执行长吴炳昌(Jordan Wu)表示。

He adds that the technological barriers facing Chinese semiconductor companies remain stern. “They have tried to copy our [chips] for the past 15 years and haven’t got anywhere. Their biggest problem is that the Chinese customers won’t use them.”

他补充说，大陆半导体企业面临的技术障碍仍然严峻。“过去15年，他们一直试图仿制我们的（芯片），但未能成功。他们最大的问题在于大陆客户不会用他们的产品。”

Chip packagers face tough choices

芯片封装企业面临艰难抉择

As Taiwan debates ever-closer economic ties with mainland China, an awkward stand-off between two of its leading semiconductor groups presents the dilemma in microcosm.

在岛内围绕与中国大陆日益紧密的经济联系争论不休之际，两岸领先的两家半导体公司之间尴尬的僵局恰恰成为这种困境的缩影。

Taiwan holds about half the global market share for semiconductor assembly and testing — the final stage of the manufacturing process, in which fragile chips are packaged into usable form and tested for defects. Most of this market share is accounted for by ASE Group and Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), which have NT$340bn ($10bn) in sales between them.

半导体封装与测试是芯片制造流程的最后一个环节，负责将易碎的芯片封装成可用的成品，并检测产品有无缺陷。在封装测试业，台湾占有全球约一半的市场份额，其中大部分份额属于日月光集团(ASE Group)和矽品这两家公司，它们的合计销售额达到3400亿元新台币（合100亿美元）。

But strong competition is emerging from China, where Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology this year acquired domestic rival STATS ChipPAC, to create a chip packaging group that rivals SPIL for third place in the world market.

但是，来自中国大陆的劲敌正在出现——今年收购国内竞争对手星科金朋(STATS ChipPAC)之后，江苏长电科技(Changjiang ElectronicsTechnology)已有能力与矽品争夺全球市场第三的位置。

Tien Wu, ASE’s chief operating officer, believes that Taiwanese semiconductor companies must band together to combat China’s ambitious state-led investment plans by creating economies of scale that will keep their innovation at the cutting edge. In August, his company announced a tender offer for slightly less than 25 per cent of SPIL’s shares — sparking speculation about a takeover attempt, although ASE called it a passive investment.

日月光运营长吴田玉(Tien Wu)认为，台湾半导体企业必须联合起来，通过创造规模经济、让企业创新保持在最前沿，来应对大陆由政府主导的、雄心勃勃的投资计划。今年8月，日月光宣布了一项针对矽品略低于25%的股份的收购要约——引发了市场猜测日月光是否试图收购矽品，尽管日月光称这只是一项被动投资。

SPIL responded a week later by agreeing a share swap with electronics assembly company Hon Hai Precision, which would have made the latter its largest shareholder. But this deal, which implied a discount to SPIL’s market share price, was voted down by shareholders.

一周后，矽品做出回应，同意与电子产品装配企业鸿海精密(Hon Hai Precision)进行换股，此举本可让后者成为矽品最大股东。但这笔换股价格为折价的交易，遭到了矽品股东的投票否决。

As a result, SPIL now has its main competitor as its largest shareholder. Mr Wu says ASE has sent “a clear signal that we’re willing to pay cash, with a premium, to start a dialogue of collaboration.” He adds: “We do need SPIL management’s agreement … a forced merger doesn’t work.”

因此，现在矽品的主要竞争对手也是其最大股东。吴田玉说，日月光发出了“明确信号，我们愿意支付现金、提供溢价，以打开双方合作的对话。”他又说：“我们的确需要获得矽品管理层的同意……强行并购是行不通的。”

That agreement is not forthcoming. Bough Lin, SPIL’s chairman, says his company will need new funding if it is to expand its capacity in China, and his preference is do this with the assistance of a Chinese company such as Tsinghua Unigroup.

取得矽品管理层的同意并不容易。矽品董事长林文伯称，如要扩大在大陆的产能，公司将需要新的资金，而他倾向于接受大陆企业的帮助，比如紫光集团。

Combining with ASE is less appealing, he says. “There are no benefits from merging the two companies — 85 per cent of our customers are the same, and they say they don’t want to see us merged together,” he explains, warning that many would divert business elsewhere to ensure a diversified supply chain.

他说，与日月光合并则没那么有吸引力。“两家公司的合并不会带来任何好处——我们85%的客户都相同，而他们说不想看到我们合并，”他解释说，并警告称，许多企业可能会将业务转移到别处，以确保供应链多样化。

This argument is endorsed by Pua Khein-Seng, chief executive of chip designer Phison, a customer of both companies. “In business, you need a second source,” he says. “[A merger] will kill SPIL. One plus one will be only 1.2 or 1.4.”

芯片设计商群联电子董事长潘健成赞同这一说法。“做生意，有备无患，”他说，“（合并）将会让矽品完蛋。1加1将只能得到1.2或1.4。”群联电子是日月光与矽品共同的客户。

Analysts at HSBC agree that the merger would benefit competitors such as Amkor of the US — the world’s number two chip packaging company. Amkor’s chief executive recently said that mergers among peers were “unequivocally a good thing” for his business.

汇丰(HSBC)的分析师也表示同意，他们认为，两家公司合并，会让它们的竞争对手得利，比如世界第二大芯片封装企业、美国公司安靠(Amkor)。该公司首席执行官最近表示，同行企业并购对他的公司“绝对是件好事”。