The crisis of 2008 showed the perils that can lurk in rapidly growing financial sectors. And few have grown faster in recent years than the business of fund management.

2008年的危机表明，快速发展的金融行业可能潜藏着危险。近些年来，很少有哪个行业的发展速度比基金管理行业更快。

Assets under management have more than doubled in size over the past decade, and the industry now runs some $74tn of money around the globe, according to Boston Consulting Group. That is equivalent to nearly one year’s gross domestic product for the world, or roughly two-thirds the total assets of its banks.

波士顿咨询公司(BCG)数据显示，过去10年里，这个行业的规模扩大了一倍以上，目前在全球管理着约74万亿美元资金。这相当于世界近一年的GDP，约为全球银行业总资产的三分之二。

Growth in itself is nothing to worry about. But the sector’s explosion has gone hand in hand with a shift into more illiquid assets. Over the past 30 years funds have been moving away from developed government bonds and equities to more hard-to-shift debt holdings.

增长本身不值得担忧。但伴随着爆发式增长，流动性差的资产却在增多。过去30年里，基金公司一直在减少发达国家的政府债券和股票，转而持有更多难以转让的债务。

A larger, less-liquid industry poses questions at a time of uncertainty in financial markets. Nervousness is growing about the impact on asset managers of prospective interest rate rises and the unwinding of quantitative easing. These jitters have been compounded by the decision of sovereign wealth funds to pull money from asset managers, linked at least in part to the fall in the price of oil. In the latest quarter they yanked some $19bn according to the data provider, eVestment.

在金融市场充满不确定性之际，一个规模更大、流动性更差的资管行业，让人不禁生出了疑问。人们日益担心预期的加息和量化宽松结束将对资产管理公司造成冲击。主权财富基金从资产管理公司撤回资金的决定——至少与油价下跌有一定关系——更是加剧了担忧。根据数据提供商eVestment，在最近一个季度，主权财富基金撤回了大约190亿美元。

Fund managers are not banks. The fact that they do not, at least in theory, bear credit or liquidity risk ought to make them more resilient in a crisis. The worry, however, lies in the undertakings they have made to investors.

资产管理公司不是银行。这些公司并不承担信用或流动性风险——起码在理论上是这样——这理应使它们更能经受得住危机。令人担心的是它们对投资者做出的保证。

Just as competition before the crisis forced banks to “dance” while the music was playing, it has also forced many asset managers to assure clients they can withdraw their investments quickly. While funds retain some liquid assets to meet sudden cash calls, these could be overwhelmed were there a sudden stampede to redeem.

正如危机之前竞争迫使银行随音乐“起舞”，竞争也迫使许多资产管理公司向客户保证，他们可以快速撤回投资。尽管基金保留着一些流动性资产，以满足突然的赎回要求，但如果骤然发生大规模赎回，那么这些资产可能根本不够用。