Jeff Christian, Managing Director of New York based commodities research firm, CPM Group said, “We have always been kind of snotty about this what we said is that those political events that are important to gold are important to gold, and those that are not.”
—家位于纽约的商品研究所CPM主管杰夫?克里斯琴说：“我们往往对基本面 事件心存傲慢，要说那些政治事件对黄金很重要，那么就是重要的，要说不重要，那 也就不重要了。”
For Christian, a pivotal event occurred during the Iran-lraq war in 1987 when Iraq attacked a Kuwaiti oil tanker near Bahrain. The Kuwaiti government eventually went to the US government asking for protection of their oil tankers, said Christian. The US ultimately established a massive military presence in the Persian Gulf and most, himself included, expected this to be bullish3 for gold, said Christian. To the surprise of most, the price of gold fell.
对克里斯琴而言，在1987年两伊战争期间发生了一粧重大事件，当时伊拉克攻 击了科威特位于巴林附近的石油槽罐。科威特政府最终向美国政府求救，保护其储 油罐,克里斯琴说。美国最终在波斯湾地区开展了大规模军事行动,和大部分人一 样，包括他自己在内都认为此次事件应该使黄金看涨。但是让大多数人震惊的是， 金价居然下跌了。
“We called some of our clients in the Persian Gulf, in Kuwait and said, “why aren’t you guys buying gold?” And they said, “our problem is solved from our perspective the US navy sailing into Persian Gulf, represents a massive reduction in political and military risk,” he said.
克里斯琴说:“我们联系了我们在波斯湾地区和科威特的客户,我们问他们，为 什么你们没有买黄金？他们说，在我们看来,美国海军驶入波斯湾的那一刻起，我们 的问题已经解决了。这意味着政治和军事风险大大降低了。”
Christian also referred to 1982 when Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands. This precipitated the two-month-long undeclared Falklands War between Argentina and the United Kingdom and resulted in the defeat and withdrawal of the Argentine forces.
克里斯琴还指出1%2年阿根廷人侵福克兰群岛事件。这场耗时2个月之长的持 久战并未得到阿根廷和英国的宣战，结果是阿根廷军队失败并且撤军。
“There were people in the gold market who said, “why is gold not responding to this? and we said, 4because it is Argentina over Britainin the South Atlantic in the Falkland islands which do not produce gold,” he said.
“金市中有不少人说，为什么黄金为对此次事件作出反应？ ”我们也这样说，“因 为这是阿根廷在南太平洋对英国的作战，弗兰克群岛不出产黄金，”克里斯琴说。
Christian said that Chile could go to war with Peru again and it probably wouldn’t really affect the price of gold because it is not central to the gold market. “If something happened in a place like Pakistan versus India where you have two people who are very much gold and silver oriented then you probably would see a reaction.”
克里斯琴说，智利可能再次向秘鲁开战,但是这不会真正影响黄金的价格，因 为这两个国家在黄金市场上都不处在举足轻重的地位。“如果像在巴基斯坦和印度 这种地方发生战争，两国人民均持有大量黄金和白银，这时你就会看到你要的反应
了。”
Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Invest ors, said gold will go up if there is a prolonged war regardless of the country. “If it is under siege4 for a long time that country’s currency gets destroyed, so gold in that country’s currency will take off. The country must raise money through taxes or issued bonds to fund the conflict. A quick, slam bam, thank you M’am is not really a sustainable reason for gold to rally，” he said.
美国全球投资人CEO，弗兰克?福尔摩斯说，无论战争发生在哪个国家，黄金都 可能因为战事的况日持久而走高。“长期处于战火煎熬的国家，该国的货币会遭到 毁灭性打击’之后黄金将取代该国货币。国家必须通过税收或是发放债券筹措资 金，以此为冲突事件提供资金支持。突发性、偶发性事件不会成为金价持续上涨的 理由”,他说。
Like Christian, Holmes was also expecting gold to spike during Operation Desert Storm. “That was a factor that surprised me and that is when I started doing a lot of research and looking at that fear trade,” said Holmes.
和克里斯琴一样，福尔摩斯在沙漠风暴期间也认为黄金会大幅上涨。“那是一 个使我吃惊的因素，而那也是我做了大量研究并对恐慌性交易判研后的结论”，福 尔摩狐
The “fear trade” according to Holmes, is driven by negative real interest rates 一where inflation is greater than the nominal interest rate — and deficit spending. Whenever you have negative real interest rates coupled with5 increased deficit spending, gold tends to rise in that country’s currency, he said.
据福尔摩斯说“恐慌性交易”就是因负利率(当通胀率大于名义利率时)和赤字 开支引发的交易。当一个国家发生负利率，同时出现赤字开支的时候,以该国币种 计价的黄金必然出现上涨。
When examining the recent earthquake in Japan, Holmes said the impact on gold may not be felt short-term but long-term it could be bullish. The $500 billion needed to be spent in Japan will inevitably be good news for gold, said Holmes. “We are going to see some unique social spending on housing which will put big demand on all commodities,” he said.
在评估近期日本大地震将会造成的影响时，福尔摩斯说，可能短期不会对金价 造成影响，但是从长期而言必定上涨。日本大约需要花费5_乙美元，这对黄金无 疑是好消息。“我们会看到日本会在住宅方面投入社会花销，这将对所有商品构成 庞大的需求"他说。