Three months ago, analysts expected the companies in the Standard&Poor’ s 500-stock index to boost profits 18% in 2011. Now, they predict 15%. Mutual-fund, hedge-fund and other money managers put the increase at closer to 9%, according to a recent Citigroup survey, while Mr. Levkovich’s estimate is for 7% growth.
三个月前,分析师预计2011年标准普尔500指数成分股获利将增长18%,目前 他们预计增长15%。根据花旗集团最近的调査，共同基金、对冲基金及其他资金管 理机构认为增幅接近9% ’莱乌科维奇预计增长7%。
“The sustainability of earnings is in doubt,” said Howard Silverblatt, an index analyst at S&P in New York. “Estimates are still optimistic.
Equally troublesome, analysts forecasts are becoming scattered. In May. the range between the highest and lowest analyst for^asts of S&500 earnings per share in 2011 was $12. Morgan Stanley predicted $85 a share, while UBS predicted $97 a share. Now, the spread is $15. Barclays said $80 a share; Deutsche Bank predicts $95.
同样让人烦恼的是,分析师的预估有多有少。5月时，分析师对2011年标准普尔 500^数成分股的每股盈余进行了预估，最高和最低差值为12美元。摩根士丹利预 计为每股盈余85美元，瑞银预估为97美元。目前最高和最低差值为15美元，巴克莱 预计为每股盈余80美元，德意志银行预计为95美元。
When profit forecasts are tightly clustered, it signals to investors that there is consensus among prognostlcators4; when they diverge wifdiy, it shows a lack of clarity. The P/E ratio tends to fall as uncertainty rises, and vice versa.
当获利预估差不多的时候，其向投资者暗示，分析师的预估达成了一致;当分 歧较大的时候，显示市场缺乏清晰度，这时候市盈率通常因不确定性上升而下跌， 反之亦然。
“A stock is worth its future earnings, but that involves uncertainty,” said Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. “The more uncertainty there is, the lower the P/E will be.” Not only is the Pf E ratio dropping, it also is in danger of losing some of its prominence as a market
That is because, with profit and economic forecasts becoming less reliable, investors are focusing more on global economic events as they make trading decisions, parsing everything from Japanese government — debt statistics to shipping patterns in the Baltic region.
这是因为随着获利和经济预估越来越不靠谱’投资者在作交易决定时更注重 全球经济事件，认真分析每一件事情,从日本国债统计数据到波罗的海地区船运模 式,不一而足。
To some extent this is in keeping with historical patterns. P/E ratios often shrink in size and significance during periods of uncertainty as investors focus on broader economic themes.