Classic cars have a reputation for being a lucrative, if not the most lucrative “luxury investment,” but last Monday night they scraped up against some wider realities.

古董车一向被认为是利润丰厚（甚至是最丰厚）的“奢侈投资品”，但是上周一（9月7日）晚上，它们不得不面对更宏大的现实。

Affluent aficionados of 1960s Ferraris and 1980s Porsches filed past about 50 chanting and whistling protesters on the way to the first London sale of the newly partnered classic car auctioneers, RM Sotheby’s, in Battersea Park. The small demonstration was part of a campaign to reinstate two cleaners who were suspended by Sotheby’s after they had participated in a protest over salaries and sick pay before its contemporary art auction on Bond Street on July 1.

一干钟情于20世纪60年代法拉利(Ferrari)或80年代保时捷(Porsche)的富豪车迷在前往巴特西公园(Battersea Park)参加新结盟的RM苏富比拍卖行(RM Sotheby’s)的首届伦敦古董车拍卖会时，遇到约50名呼喊、吹口哨的抗议者。这次小规模抗议活动旨在呼吁苏富比公司恢复两名清洁员的工作。7月1日，苏富比在邦德街举办当代艺术拍卖会前，这两位清洁员参加了一个要求增加薪资和病假工资的抗议活动，因此遭到解雇。

The 1,000 or so dealers, collectors, speculators and spectators who arrived on Monday concentrated on finding out whether classic cars were still a high-performance investment, despite a gloomy economy at their doorsteps and internationally, particularly in China.

包括交易商、收藏家、投机家和观察家在内的约一千名嘉宾参加了周一的拍卖会。他们最关心的是古董车是否仍是利润丰厚的投资优选，尽管英国以及国际（尤其是中国）经济不景气。

It turned out that, for the most part, the engine of growth has slowed. The 76-lot event raised 16.7 million, about $25.7 million, with most lots selling around the low estimate and 26 percent of the cars unsold.

结果证明，总的来说，增长势头已经放缓。这场拍卖会共有76件拍品，共拍得1670万英镑，约合2570万美元，大部分拍品的售价在最低估价左右，且有26%的古董车流拍。

The total was well below the 22 million that RM Auctions of Canada achieved at its equivalent sale in London in September. (On Feb. 18, Sotheby’s paid $30.7 million for a 25 percent stake in RM Auctions, with options to increase its share.) The unsold rate could have been higher, but some sellers lowered their reserve prices before the sale began, or hadn’t demanded a reserve at all. Among 23 lots of the latter was a 1987 AC Cobra Mk IV convertible, which sold to a buyer in the room for just 61,600 with fees, against a low estimate of 120,000.

这次拍卖会的总成交额远远低于RM拍卖行(RM Auctions)加拿大分部去年9月在伦敦举办的同类拍卖会，后者的总成交额为2200万英镑（今年2月18日，苏富比以3070万美元购得RM拍卖行25%的股权，并有权增加自己的股权份额）。本次拍卖会的流拍比例本可能更高，但是有些卖家在拍卖会前降低了保留价，或者压根没设定保留价。共有23辆拍品未设定保留价，包括一辆1987年的AC Cobra Mk IV折蓬车，它被现场的一位买家以区区6.16万英镑（含佣金）购得，而预估的最低价为12万英镑。

“People are coming down to earth, even though some sellers still have their heads in the clouds,” said Simon Kidston, a dealer in Geneva who founded the classic car index k500.com last December. “Buyers are financially aware and they get spooked if there is bad news elsewhere.”

西蒙·基德斯顿(Simon Kidston)是日内瓦的一位交易商。去年12月，他创立了古董车交易指数网站k500.com。他说，“人们变得越来越现实，尽管有些卖家仍有过高的期望。买家们在价格方面很敏感，如果其他方面出现坏消息，他们会很惊慌。”

In recent years, the top level of the classic car market has been dominated by signature Ferraris from the 1950s and ’60s. A 1958 example of Ferrari’s highly successful 250 GT Berlinetta Competizione “Tour de France” coupe, with a modest racing history and restored original 263 b.h.p. engine, duly topped the sale with a price of 4.8 million against a low estimate of 4.5 million.

近些年，顶级古董车市场由20世纪五六十年代的法拉利标志性跑车主导。比如，法拉利非常成功的1958年版250GT Berlinetta Competizione “Tour de France”轿跑车曾参与赛车，成绩平平，原装的263b.h.p.发动机也得到修复，很自然地在那场拍卖会上拔得头筹，以480万英镑成交，略高于最低估价450万英镑。

In 2013, the HAGI (Historic Auto Group International) Top Index of auction and dealer sales of exceptional collectable cars gained 46.75 percent; in 2014, it was up 15.8 percent; so far this year (up to the end of August), it has gained 8 percent.

2013年，英国汽车市场研究公司HAGI(Historic Automobile Group International)的顶级拍卖指数和交易商顶级珍藏汽车销售额增长了46.75%；2014年的增长比例为15.6%；今年截至8月底，增长比例为8%。

“It’s definitely slowing down,” said Dietrich Hatlapa, the founder of the HAGI Index, who, like many observers of the classic car market, attribute much of its top-end growth in recent years to wealthy Americans and Europeans benefiting from central banks’ quantitative easing and low interest rates. “People felt comfortable about having 10 percent of their wealth in classic cars, saw values rise and then increased the capital allocation to 15 or 20 percent. The global liquidity just isn’t there any more.”

HAGI指数创始人迪特里希·哈特拉帕(Dietrich Hatlapa)和古董车市场的很多观察家一样，认为近年来高端古董车的销售增长主要是因为美国和欧洲各国央行推行量化宽松政策和低利率，富裕阶层因此获益。他说，“当前的市场确实在下滑。以前，人们愿意拿出资产的10%投入古董车市场，看到价格不断上涨后，他们又把这部分资产配置增加到15%或20%。可惜那种全球流通的局面已不复存在。”

This slowdown was also evident in the overall results at the bellwether specialist car auctions in Monterey, Calif., last month. While RM Sotheby’s led the series with $167.2 million of auction sales, including a week-topping $17.6 million for a 1964 Ferrari 250 LM Coupe, the final cumulative total of $396.8 million at auctions by RM Sotheby’s, Gooding & Co., Bonhams, Mecum, Russo & Steele and JR was 7.9 percent lower than the $428.1 million taken at the equivalent public sales in August 2014, according to data provided by Hagerty, a Michigan-based company that values and insures classic cars.

从上个月在加利福尼亚州蒙特雷举行的领头专家汽车拍卖会的总体行情看，这种下滑势头已经十分明显。据密歇根的古董车估价兼保险公司Hagerty提供的数据，虽然RM苏富比拍卖行以1.672亿美元的总拍卖额领跑，其中一辆1964年产法拉利250LM轿跑车创造了当周最高价1760万美元，但是RM苏富比、Gooding&Co.、邦瀚斯拍卖行(Bonhams)、Mecum、Russo&Steele和JR举办的拍卖会的总拍卖额仅为3.968亿美元，比2014年8月的同类公开拍卖会的总成交额4.281亿美元降低了7.9%。

Auctions of classic cars have a singular atmosphere. Crowded with middle-aged men, all of whom seem to know the exact history, condition and value of every lot, these events increasingly only have the capacity to surprise when an extreme rarity comes under the hammer.

古董车拍卖会具有独特的气氛。现场挤满了中年男人，他们似乎都知道每件拍卖汽车的确切历史、保养状况和价值。除非出现罕见的拍品，很难有惊喜可言。

“The dynamics of the market are changing,” Mr. Kidston said. “If something is truly exceptional, buyers will pay a good price. If it isn’t, they’ll wait and know another one will come along.”

基德斯顿说，“市场的活力在变化。如果真有珍品出现，买家们愿意报出高价。如果没有，他们宁愿等待，因为他们知道会有别的车出现。”

On Sept. 5, for example, Bonhams achieved a top-estimate 3.3 million euros, about $3.7 million, for a unique surviving prototype of Maserati’s 1972 futuristic Giorgetto Giugiaro-designed Boomerang coupe. It was the stand-out lot at the company’s inaugural auction, which coincided with the Arts & Elegance concours event in Chantilly, France.

比如，9月5日，邦瀚斯以330万欧元（约合370万美元）的最高估计卖出了一辆现存的独一无二的1972年版玛莎拉蒂(Maserati)轿跑车，它是未来主义大师乔治盖托·乔治亚罗(Giorgetto Giugiaro)设计的，是该拍卖行首场拍卖会的佼佼者。这场拍卖会与法国尚蒂伊的Arts&Elegance汽车展同时举行。

On the same day, Bonhams also sold a 1929 Bentley 4.5-liter Sports Saloon in its annual sale of collectors’ cars at the Beaulieu National Motor Museum in Hampshire in England. Remarkably, the Bentley, one of 657 made, had been owned by the same English family since 1935 and was in original “barn find” condition, with its engine seized, having been parked in a garage since 1985. It was bought by a British collector for 695,900, more than four times the low estimate.

同一天，在英国汉普郡比尤利国家汽车博物馆(Beaulieu National Motor Museum)举行的收藏车年度拍卖会上，邦瀚斯还卖出一辆1929年产宾利(Bentley)4.5升三厢跑车。此款宾利跑车当初共生产了657辆。这辆车与众不同的地方在于，自1935年起，它一直为某英国家庭所有，完全是“原装”状态，引擎从未发动过，自1985年起一直停放在车库内。它最终被一位英国收藏家以69.59万英镑收入囊中，是最低估价的四倍多。

“The value is what this is, not what it could be,” said James Knight, group director of Bonhams’s motoring department, who estimated that the Bentley could cost as much as 250,000 to restore. He added that the resultant loss of its once-in-a-lifetime originality could result in a lowering of value. “If it were put back in an auction in restored condition, we’d probably estimate it at 500,000-600,000.”

邦瀚斯汽车部主管詹姆斯·奈特(James Knight)估计，修复这辆宾利要花费25万英镑。他说，“古董车的价值在于它本身，而不是它所具备的潜力。”他补充说，修复后车辆将不再是原装的，价值会下降。“如果修复后再拿出来拍卖，估价会在50至60万英镑之间。”

The auction price exemplified the current vogue for cars in “first paint, first trim” condition, that can compete (if the engine works) in concours beauty parades.

拍卖行情表明，当前古董车的卖点在于“原漆原配”，唯有这样才能在竞拍市场上赢得青睐（前提是车辆能够运转）。

An even more extreme example is the 1928 4.5-liter Bentley that the dealer William Medcalf discovered 18 months ago scattered in pieces around a house at Kew in West London. The only known survivor of eight such Bentleys made with Victor Broom “Drophead” bodywork, it still had virtually all of its original components, including a working engine with its original Bentley “five-year warranty” lead seals in place and a speedometer with 39,000 miles.

一个更极端的例子是一辆1928年产4.5升宾利，它是交易商威廉·梅德卡夫(William Medcalf)18个月前在伦敦西区基尤(Kew)的一座房子里发现的，当时它的零件四处散落。这款宾利具有Victor Broom活顶车身，当时仅生产了八辆，这辆是现在所知的唯一留存下来的。它的所有配件几乎都是原装的，仍可正常运转的发动机还保留着宾利“五年保修”的铅封，里程仪上显示仅跑了3.9万英里。

“I’ve never seen a Bentley with its original seals,” said Mr. Medcalf, whose Sussex business specializes in restoring and selling vintage examples of the brand. The “Drophead” has now been reassembled to concours condition. “It’s driveable. You can go to Edinburgh in it,” added Mr. Medcalf, who is quoting an asking price of 1.2 million.

梅德卡夫在萨塞克斯郡开设了一家专门修复和销售宾利古董车的公司。他说，“我从没见过带有原始铅封的宾利。”现在，活顶车棚也被重新装上，整辆汽车达到参展水准。梅德卡夫补充说，“这辆车还能开，开着它去爱丁堡都没问题。”他说报价是120万英镑。

As growth slows in the classic car market, has Sotheby’s, who last held auto auctions in 1999, rejoined the party a little too late? Is this really a sector where it can make up ground on its bigger-grossing rival, Christie’s, who stopped selling cars in 2006?

苏富比上一次举办汽车拍卖还是在1999年。如今古董车市场增速减缓，苏富比在此时回归，是不是有点太晚了？竞争对手佳士得的拍卖总额高于苏富比，前者从2006年起停止了汽车拍卖业务。苏富比真能凭借这一领域赶超对手吗？

“We are actively pursuing cross-selling opportunities between the two organizations,” Tad Smith, president and chief executive of Sotheby’s, said in the company’s first-half earnings conference call on Aug. 7. “We like the collectible car business.”

8月7日，苏富比总裁兼首席执行官塔德·史密斯(Tad Smith)在上半年收入大会上表示，“我们在积极寻找这两个组织的交叉销售机会，我们喜欢古董车业务。”

In other words, wealthy people buy cars, and being wealthy, they might just want to buy other luxury items that Sotheby’s also happen to sell, like art, jewels and wine.

换言之，有钱人喜欢买车，他们也喜欢买其他奢侈品，比如苏富比碰巧在售的艺术品、珠宝和红酒。

Moreover, classic cars — unlike art, jewels and wine — isn’t a luxury investment that has attracted much new money from Asia and Russia, and the volatility of demand that goes with it. It’s a business based on American and European men of a certain age and income level who are passionate about buying and driving old cars, albeit rather fewer when economies stall.

此外，不同于后三者，古董车对亚洲和俄罗斯的暴发户没有太大吸引力，因此在需求方面不会出现动荡。古董车的消费者主要是美国和欧洲的那些具有一定阅历和丰厚收入的男人，他们热衷于购买和驾驶古董汽车，即使在经济停滞、古董车数量大为减少的时候。

“Things can’t keep going up for ever, but I have done well out of my collection,” said Julian Smith, 50, a British businessman based in the Channel Islands who was bidding, but not buying, at RM Sotheby’s auction in Battersea.

50岁的英国商人朱利安·史密斯(Julian Smith)住在海峡群岛。他参与了巴特西RM苏富比拍卖会的出价，但并未购买。他说，“没有什么东西能永远涨个不停，不过我的藏品都还不错。”

Mr. Smith owns, among other cars, a 1973 Ferrari Daytona and an Alfa Romeo 1900C Pininfarina, which he raced in the Mille Miglia competition in Italy this year. “I was more inclined to add to the collection, as all previous cars had appreciated. However, this was not my prime motivation,” he said as he set off into the night, past the Sotheby’s protest. “I just like them.”

史密斯收藏的古董车包括一辆1973年产法拉利代托纳(Daytona)和一辆阿尔法·罗密欧1900C宾尼法利纳跑车(Alfa Romeo 1900C Pininfarina)。今年，史密斯还驾驶后者参加了意大利的Mille Miglia赛车比赛。“我以前买的车都升值了，当然想再购置新藏品。不过这并不是我的主要动机，我就是喜欢古董车。”说完，他发动汽车，穿过抗议的人群，消失在夜色里。