As the Federal Reserve’s open markets committee meets for its crucial two-day session in Washington, Janet Yellen faces her first real policy test since assuming the chair in February 2014. Amazingly, she is already almost halfway through her first term. But, so far she has had the relatively easy task of piloting the exit from quantitative easing. The exit plan had already been mapped out by Ben Bernanke, and it was not particularly contentious inside the committee.

随着美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)在华盛顿召开为期两天的关键会议，珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)面临着自2014年2月接任美联储主席以来的首次真正政策考验。令人惊讶的是，她的首个任期已经几乎过半。但到目前为止，她所做的只是相对容易的工作——引导美国退出量化宽松政策。该退出计划早已由本伯南克(Ben Bernanke)制定好，而且在该委员会内部也不存在特别大的争议。

The decision on whether to raise interest rates this week is, however, proving more divisive. Among her key lieutenants, vice-chair Stanley Fischer seems somewhat hawkish, while William Dudley has stated the case for the doves. John Williams, her successor at the helm of the San Francisco Fed, and a key ally, also seems inclined to a more dovish view than he championed earlier in the summer.

然而，事实将证明，该委员会对于本周是否加息存在更大的分歧。在耶伦的主要助手中，美联储副主席斯坦利费希尔(Stanley Fischer)看起来有些鹰派倾向，而威廉达德利（William Dudley，纽约联储行长——译者注）阐述了鸽派一方的理由。耶伦的关键盟友、接替她掌舵旧金山联储(San Francisco Fed)的约翰威廉姆斯(John Williams)，似乎也比今夏早些时候更偏于鸽派。

Mr Williams recently told the Wall Street Journal that he would “honestly, honestly, honestly” want to hear the opinions of his colleagues at this week’s meeting before making up his mind. Does he protest too much, I wonder? Perhaps the decision has already been taken, but the Yellen camp wants to allow the hawks a full and fair hearing before announcing that rates would remain unchanged.

最近，威廉姆斯对《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)表示，在做出决定之前，他将在本周的会议上“诚心诚意地”听取同僚们的看法。我怀疑他是不是太经常提出异议了。也许决定早已做出，但耶伦阵营希望在宣布利率保持不变前给鹰派成员们一场全面、公平的听证。

Mr Williams also said that he would be eagerly waiting to hear the opinions of Ms Yellen before making up his own mind on the rate hike. With the committee split more than usual, the views of the chair will probably swing the vote, within certain limits. But what does she think? Ms Yellen ducked last month’s Jackson Hole seminar, and has not spoken about monetary policy since a speech on 10 July, since when much water has passed under the bridge. No one can be sure which way she will jump.

威廉姆斯还称，在是否加息问题上做出自己的决定之前，他急切地等着听听耶伦的看法。由于此次委员会内部的分歧比平常严重，美联储主席的意见可能扭转投票结果，但这种影响有一定限度。但她是怎么想的呢？耶伦在上月杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)研讨会上避不表态，而且自7月10日发表过一次演讲之后再未谈论过货币政策，自那时以来形势已经发生了很大变化。没有人确定她会怎样选择。

Among independent economists who normally share Ms Yellen’s way of thinking (eg the FT’s columnists Martin Wolf and Larry Summers), opinion has hardened against a rate rise in September. In fact, some of them express bewilderment about why the Fed would even contemplate a rate hike in today’s economy.

在通常与耶伦思路一致的独立经济学家——如英国《金融时报》的两位专栏作家马丁茠尔夫(Martin Wolf)与拉里萨默斯(Larry Summers)——中间，反对9月加息的立场已变得更加坚定。事实上，他们中的一些人还表达了困惑：美联储为何会在当前的经济形势下考虑加息？

The answer to this, though, is straightforward: the majority of the FOMC believes that the economy has now largely “normalised”, while the level of rates remains far from normal. This can be translated into a Taylor Rule framework, which shows fairly clearly that a rate rise will be overdue by the end of 2015.

不过，这一问题的答案很简单：多数美联储公开市场委员会成员都认为，美国经济如今已经在很大程度上实现了“正常化”，但利率水平仍远未恢复正常。这种观点可以用泰勒法则(Taylor rule)的框架解释，后者相当清晰地显示出，2015年底加息将太迟。

Ms Yellen, based on her past statements, seems to accept this broad framework. One implication of this is that she implicitly accepts that the labour market is now close to “normal”, despite depressed productivity growth and a low level of labour participation. She is not seeking to make the argument that monetary policy should run demand in the economy “hot” in an effort to overcome these supply side problems. This is a major, if poorly explained, strategic decision.

从耶伦以前的声明来看，她似乎接受了这一宽泛的框架。这意味着，她默认了劳动力市场现在已经接近“正常”，尽管生产率增长低迷，而且劳动力参与率处于低水平。她并不寻求主张，货币政策应该使经济中的需求“火爆”，以便克服供应面问题。这是一项重大的——即使解释欠佳——战略决策。

Nevertheless, within this framework there is some wriggle room, which comes into the category of “data dependence”. In her July speech, Ms Yellen said that two requirements would need to be met before the Fed would raise rates:

然而，这一框架中留有一些余地，涉及“数据依赖”的范畴。在7月的演讲中，耶伦说，美联储加息之前，有两个条件需要被满足：

I expect that it will be appropriate at some point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary policy…We will be watching carefully to see if there is continued improvement in labor market conditions, and we will need to be reasonably confident that inflation will move back to 2 per cent in the next few years.

我预计，在今年晚些时候的某个时点首次采取措施提高联邦基金利率是恰当的，从而开启货币政策正常化……我们将仔细观察劳动力市场状况是否得到持续改善，而且我们需要有相当的把握，相信未来几年通胀将重回2%。

The July FOMC statement then added that the committee would also consider “readings on financial and international developments”.

美联储公开市场委员会7月会议纪要中还说，委员会还将考虑“金融和国际发展方面的数据”。

How do these criteria look today? There has certainly been a “continued improvement” in labour market conditions. However, on inflation, wage increases remain stubbornly fixed at about 2 per cent, and the core PCE inflation rate has actually moved downwards to a new low of 1.24 per cent. Not all of this can be explained by “temporary factors” such as the drop in oil prices and the stronger dollar. Furthermore, inflation expectations in the bond market, and among the public, have been falling.

如今这些标准看起来如何？劳动力市场状况肯定是取得了“持续改善”。然而，在通胀方面，工资增长仍然顽固地维持在2%左右，核心个人消费支出(PCE)通胀率实际上已经下滑至1.24%的新低。并非所有情况都能用油价下跌和美元走强等“临时性因素”来解释。此外，债券市场的通胀预期以及公众的通胀预期都持续下滑。

Meanwhile “readings on financial and international developments” have clearly deteriorated markedly. The China shock may not have much impact on the US economy through trade flows, but it could do so through a tightening in financial conditions. According to Goldman Sachs, the pioneers in this field of analysis, the FCI has tightened by almost 75 basis points since the July FOMC meeting owing to the stronger dollar, lower equity prices and widening credit spreads.

与此同时，“金融和国际发展方面的数据”已经显著恶化。中国股市或许不会通过贸易流动对美国经济造成太大影响，但是却可能通过导致金融状况收紧而影响到美国。据该分析领域的领头羊高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，自美联储公开市场委员会7月会议以来，由于美元走强、股市下跌及信贷息差扩大，金融状况指数(FCI)已经收紧将近75个基点。

From where I sit, it is hard to say that these key criteria have been met today, unless they were already met in July, when the Fed decided not to raise rates.

在我看来，很难说如今已经满足了这些关键标准，除非7月美联储决定不加息时就已经达到了这些标准。

So why is a rate rise even on the table? The politics of running the committee may be responsible; in order to maintain a broad consensus, the chair conceded earlier in the year that a rate rise this year was “expected”. This form of calendar guidance was quite likely to cause trouble, and it has. If the committee decides against a rate rise tomorrow, it will probably simultaneously demonstrate in the “dots” plot that a rate rise is still very probable in December.

那么，为什么加息议题如今还摆在桌面上？管理该委员会的政治学也许是原因所在；为了维持一个广泛的共识，耶伦在今年早些时候承认，年内加息“在预期中”。这种时间指引的形式无异于制造麻烦，而如今确实有了麻烦。如果此次委员会决定不加息，很可能同时利用“点状图”表明，12月仍然有很大可能加息。

So, realistically there are two options for Ms Yellen. The first and more likely option is a “hawkish postponement”, under which she explains that the conditions have not quite been met, but that the bulk of the committee believes this will happen by December. I am not sure that would do much to clear the air.

因此，实在地讲，耶伦有两个选项。第一个也是最可能的选项是“鹰派地推迟加息”，解释目前还没完全满足加息条件，但是委员会的大多数成员认为将在12月加息。我不确定这对消除疑虑有多大帮助。

The second is the so-called “one and done” option, under which the FOMC raises rates by 0.25 per cent (or even conceivably by 0.125 per cent), and the “dots” show that no further rate rise is expected in October or December, except by a small handful of hawks.

第二个是所谓的“一次到位”选项——加息0.25%（或更可能的0.125%），并且用“点状图”表明，10月和12月预计不会进一步加息，除了少数鹰派委员有异议。

This option seems to be gaining ground in the public commentary, on the grounds that it would get the bad news out of the way. But the markets know from past experience that they should take the first rate hike seriously as a guide to the Fed’s underlying attitude, and they would probably reprice short rates in 2016 upwards.

这个选项似乎在公共舆论中越来越为人所接受，因为这将避免不利消息的影响。但是市场从过去的经验中得知，他们应该认真对待第一次加息，以此为参考了解美联储潜在的态度，他们很可能又将预期短期利率在2016年上行。

A final, more dovish, option — to keep rates unchanged, and also to eliminate the expectation of a rise in December — is probably not one that Ms Yellen could guide through the committee, even if she wanted to do so.

最后一个是鸽派选项——维持利率不变、并且消除12月加息的预期，这很可能不是耶伦能引导公开市场委员会通过的决定，尽管她希望这样做。