Russia’s Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev proposed last week that the country formulate budgets for only one year instead of the traditional three. Officially, the reason that the government feels unable to plan ahead for so long are the risks surrounding the oil price and rouble exchange rate fluctuations. But cabinet officials say the move was precipitated by the uncertainty over what happens when US rates rise.

俄罗斯总理德米特里蔠德韦杰夫(Dmitry Medvedev)上周提议俄只制定一年的预算，而非传统上的三年预算。俄政府感到无法制定这么长时间的预算，官方就此给出的解释是，存在油价和卢布汇率波动的风险。但俄内阁官员表示，之所以会有这么一出，是因为不知道美国加息后会发生什么。

Economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev has already become a laughing stock for adjusting the economic growth rate several times a year.

俄经济部长阿列克谢乌柳卡耶夫(Alexei Ulyukayev)之前已因一年数次调整经济增长率而沦为人们的笑柄。

“But at least every time the rouble drops or soars again, at least we know what it means for the economy,” said one former senior official in Mr Ulyukayev’s ministry. “We can’t say that of the impact of US monetary policy. It could bring just a little bit more pressure on our currency and just a little bit more capital outflows, both of which wouldn’t be felt too strongly overall, or it could affect our financial stability.”

“但至少，每次卢布下跌或再次飙升的时候，我们还知道这对经济意味着什么。”一名曾任俄经济部高官的人士表示，“至于美国的货币政策会带来什么影响，我们就不知道了。它可能只会对我们的货币带来略多一点的压力、让我们的资本外流稍稍加速，整体而言这两方面的冲击给我们的感觉都不会太强烈；又或者，它可能会影响我们的金融稳定。”

For Russia’s central bank, a stronger dollar, almost inevitably the result of a rate hike in the US, would make it even more difficult to rebuild its international reserves, which have dwindled from more than $500bn before the current crisis to $364bn.

美国加息几乎必然会让美元变得更加强势，这将让俄罗斯央行更难以重建其外汇储备——俄罗斯外汇储备已从本次危机前的逾5000亿美元降至3640亿美元。

The predictions for the fallout of a possible US interest rate rise for Russia differ widely. Western sanctions imposed last year, cheaper oil and consequently a drastically weaker rouble have already wreaked havoc, causing the economy to contract by 2.2 per cent in the first quarter and by 4.6 per cent in the second.

关于美国可能进行的加息会对俄造成何种影响，各种预测分歧很大。西方去年实施的制裁、油价下跌以及由此导致的卢布大幅贬值，已对俄经济造成严重破坏，今年一季度和二季度，俄经济分别收缩了2.2%和4.6%。

“Of course a US rate hike would be negative for Russia, but not as negative as for some other emerging markets, because due to the sanctions, we are no longer as connected economically with the US as we used to be,” says Oleg Kouzmin, an economist at Renaissance Capital.

晋新资本(Renaissance Capital)经济学家奥列格錠神明(Oleg Kouzmin)表示：“美国加息当然会对俄罗斯造成负面影响，但不会像对其他一些新兴市场那样严重，原因是西方的制裁使得我们与美国的经济联系已不像过去那样紧密。”

As a result of capital market sanctions, US banks now play a much smaller role as sources of new loans for Russian companies, many institutional investors have reduced their exposure to Russia, and Russian external trade has shrunk drastically.

资本市场制裁的结果是，美国的银行现在在向俄企业提供新贷款方面起的作用要小得多，许多机构投资者削减了对俄敞口，而俄罗斯的对外贸易已大幅萎缩。

“If you are underweight Russia already, there is not that much more you can reduce,” says Mr Kouzmin.

库兹明表示：“如果你之前已经削减了对俄敞口，那你现在就没有太多减仓空间了。”

But others argue that the key point is how the effects of higher US rates on global trade will hit Russia.

但还有一些人辩称，关键问题在于，美国加息对全球贸易造成的影响将如何冲击俄罗斯。

“Russia’s heavy dependence on oil and gas exports means that its economy is more vulnerable to external shocks of all kinds,” says a US executive who has been investing in Russia for almost 20 years.

将近20年来一直投资俄罗斯的一名美国企业高管表示：“俄严重依赖石油和天然气出口，这意味着，其经济抵御各种外部冲击的能力要更弱一些。

“The question is therefore more what a US rate hike does to all emerging markets and the world economy, and if it does much damage there, Russia will suffer maximum pain.”

“因此，问题在更大程度上在于，美国加息对所有新兴市场和世界经济有何影响，如果它给新兴市场和世界经济造成重创，俄罗斯遭受的苦难将最为严重。”