投资有风险 Black Monday highlights Beijing's hard choices
日期:2015-08-26 10:48

(单词翻译:单击)


It is a sign of the severity of China’s stock market correction that the authorities in Beijing no longer seek either to thwart or deny the carnage. There is simply too much red on stock brokers’ screens for them to wish away.

中国当局不再试图阻止或者否认此次股灾,这表明了此轮回调的严重性。券商屏幕上显示下跌的股票太多了,祈祷它们消失是不可能的。

The latest slide — an 8.5 per cent drop officially dubbed “Black Monday” — takes to almost a fifth the decline in shares since the renminbi devaluation on August 11. Worryingly for a country that has been encouraging the public to buy stocks that were until recently rising rapidly, the market now stands below its level on January 1.

中国股市周一暴跌8.5%,被官方媒体称为“黑色星期一”。这次的暴跌使得中国股市自人民币8月11日贬值以来下跌近20%。中国一直在鼓励公众买股票,而直至不久前中国股市还在快速上涨,因此,股市当前点位低于今年1月1日的水平让人担忧。

Gone too are the days when the developed world could look on with unconcern at turmoil on China’s exchanges. Their fall is ricocheting around the globe, hitting shares and already-peppered commodity prices. London’s FTSE 100 index shed 4.4 per cent of its value, and many European bourses fell similar amounts. The Dow Jones index slid sharply at the opening, before rallying later.

发达世界对中国股市动荡漠然置之的日子也一去不复返了。中国股市本轮下跌影响到了全球,对股市和已经深跌的大宗商品价格造成冲击。伦敦富时100 (FTSE 100)指数下跌4.4%,许多欧洲股指也下跌了类似的幅度。道琼斯指数(Dow Jones)开盘大跌,不过后来有所反弹。

China’s initial reaction to the turmoil was less than impressive. Beijing sought to turn back the markets, pumping $200bn into a support operation, restricting selling and instructing pension funds to wade in and snap up unwanted shares. Having abandoned its attempt to treat the symptom, it must address with a surer hand the underlying malaise.

中国对本轮股市下跌的最初反应并不引人瞩目。中国政府之前曾寻求扭转市场趋势,投入2000亿美元用于救市,限制卖股,并要求养老基金入市接手没人要的股票。现在中国政府不再寻求治标,它必须用更可靠的方式治本。

China’s economic challenges are immense. The country faces a sharp investment slowdown at a time when it is only part of the way into a long-term plan to rebalance the economy towards domestic consumption. Reversing track might be tempting were it possible. Unfortunately for the Chinese leadership, it is not.

中国经济面临严峻挑战。中国经济再平衡、向依赖国内消费转型的长期计划只进行到中途,而在此之际投资急剧放缓。如果有可能走回头路的话,那可能极具诱惑力。但对中国领导人来说,遗憾的是现在不可能回头。

Exports can no longer be the country’s saviour. Representing some 15 per cent of the global economy, China is too large to trade its way to glory. Nor would it be wise to revert to the investment-led model that has powered the economy since the financial crisis. Such high levels of capital investment are both an inefficient model of development and one inevitably prone to sudden stops.

出口不再是中国的救星。中国大约占到全球经济的15%,规模太大而无法通过贸易实现辉煌。中国回到投资驱动的模式也将是不明智的——这种模式自金融危机以来一直为经济提供动力。如此高的资本投资水平既是无效的发展模式,也不可避免地容易突然停滞。

Beijing does have space to respond. China is not a debtor on its uppers. It is more in the position of a liquidating creditor. Nonetheless, investors will watch closely for signs that its market distress signifies a wider slump in demand.

中国政府还有应对的空间。中国并非是走投无路的债务人。它更大程度上是一个变现资产的债权人。尽管如此,投资者将密切关注,看是否有迹象表明中国股市下跌意味着更为广泛的需求下降。

While Beijing should not panic, the government needs to think hard about how it might boost consumption were that to prove necessary. It should be public about its conclusions, however much this may go against the grain. Markets and the wider world need confidence in the existence of a plan, given the absence of the monetary and fiscal tools common to market economies.

尽管中国政府不应该恐慌,但它需要认真思考如何才能促进消费——如果事实证明这么做是有必要的话。它应该公开其结论,无论这多么不合其一贯作风。鉴于中国缺乏市场经济常见的货币和财政工具,股市和更广泛的世界需要相信存在某个计划。

China is not alone in facing hard choices. The same can be said for the US Federal Reserve. The market slide comes as the central bank prepares to decide whether to raise interest rates, a move that many had predicted might happen next month. Although the Fed should never target asset prices, the volatility strengthens the hands of those arguing for delay.

并非只有中国面临艰难选择。可以说美联储(Fed)同样如此。股市下跌之际,美联储正准备决定是否加息——许多人预计美联储可能在下月加息。尽管美联储绝不应以资产价格为目标,但市场波动让一些人更有理由主张美联储推迟加息。

Rebalancing China and weaning the world off rock bottom interest rates were always going to be delicate undertakings, and so they are proving. Such a sweeping correction is unnerving, but so long as it does not infect the real economy, there are some benefits in more market volatility.

让中国经济实现再平衡以及让全世界摆脱极低水平的利率,始终是非常棘手的任务,而且事实也证明它们的确如此。像这样席卷全球的回调令人不安,但只要它没有影响到实体经济,更多的市场波动是有一些益处的。

It is a reminder that there are risks in investments and it is not the job of central bankers to protect the value of people’s assets. As the Chinese public is learning, and the developed world may have forgotten in recent years, this is part of normality too.

它提醒我们,投资有风险,央行的职责不是保护人们的资产价值。这也是常态的一部分,中国公众正在明白这一点,但发达世界最近几年可能已经忘记了。

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