Five years ago, two of the most attractive investment propositions for British investors collided. Anthony Bolton, Fidelity’s famed stockpicker, launched a China fund in a year when the Asian nation’s economy grew by almost 12 per cent in the first quarter.

五年前，对英国投资者最具吸引力的两个要素凑到了一起。富达(Fidelity)著名基金经理安东尼波顿(Anthony Bolton)推出了中国基金，那年这个亚洲国家第一季度经济同比增长近12%。

Fast forward to 2015, and Mr Bolton’s legacy fund — now run by Australian small-cap specialist Dale Nicholls — is trading on the London stock exchange at a wide 20.5 per cent discount to net asset value, depressed by China’s surprise currency devaluation this week and volatility on the Shanghai stock market as China’s economy slows down.

到了2015年，波顿的这个基金已由澳大利亚小盘股专家戴尔尼科尔斯(Dale Nicholls)接手。在伦敦证交所上市的该基金的股价相对于资产净值有20.5%的折让，受人民币最近意外贬值和中国经济放缓之际A股市场震荡的影响。

Discounts on UK-listed China funds may look tempting for retail investors with a strong risk appetite, but amid such uncertainty, there is much to be nervous about.

对于风险偏好较强的散户投资者而言，这支在英国上市的中国基金的价格折扣也许很诱人，但置身于这么多的不确定性之中，实在是有很多事情让人不安。

The dwindling numbers of China bulls argue that whilst the nation’s economic growth has slowed to 7 per cent, this level will be sustained as long as the country remains closely controlled by Beijing policymakers who determine everything from bank interest rates to birth rates.

人数越来越少的看涨中国者辩称，虽然中国经济增速已下降到7%，但只要北京的政策制定者仍管得住国家，中国的经济增速就将保持在这一水平。从银行利率到出生率，这些政策制定者决定着中国的一切。

Meanwhile, some long-term investment stories, such as the opportunity for China’s consumer economy to develop, remain compelling.

同时，一些长期投资故事仍扣人心弦，比如中国消费经济发展的机会。

“You can see the Chinese government is trying to control the growth rate lower,” said Brewin Dolphin Asia Pacific analyst Mike Paul, referring to measures such as Beijing’s clampdown on so-called shadow lending by funds and trust companies that previously boosted growth.

券商Brewin Dolphin的亚太分析师迈克保罗(Mike Paul)说：“你可以看到中国政府正试图以可控的方式放缓增长速度。”他提到北京方面采取措施抑制所谓的影子银行贷款，这些贷款由基金和信托公司发放，在前些年曾推动增长。

“You can argue they can raise it again.”

“你可以说，他们能够再次提高增速。”

He contended however, that China’s economy is opaque and its stock markets are “pretty volatile,” adding: “China does make us nervous.”

但他提出，中国经济缺乏透明，A股市场“相当波动”，他还说：“中国确实让我们紧张。”

Certainly, China’s central bank spooked markets this week by devaluing the Chinese currency, the renminbi, in an attempt to stoke up exports as the economy slows.

中国央行最近肯定惊吓了市场，随着经济增长放缓，该行引导人民币走低，以求促进出口。

A further worry is China’s high debt, which hit 282 per cent of GDP in mid-2014, according to McKinsey.

市场的另一个担忧是中国的高负债，据麦肯锡(McKinsey)的数据，2014年中期中国的债务总量已达到国内生产总值(GDP)的282%。

In 2009, to shelter China’s economy from the global recession that was sparked by the subprime lending crisis in the US, Beijing prompted what could be a subprime crisis of its own.

2009年，为保护中国经济，使其免受美国次贷危机所引发的全球经济衰退影响，北京方面采取了最终可能酿成中国自己的次贷危机的行动。

The country’s banks, the largest of which remain mostly owned by the state, lent an estimated $1,650bn to local governments in the aftermath of the global recession for GDP-boosting infrastructure projects. Many were unnecessary, with the artificial demand they created bloating industries such as steel, which overproduced.

全球衰退过后，中国的银行（几家大银行仍主要为国有）向地方政府贷出了1.65万亿美元，让后者投入有助于提高GDP的基础设施项目。许多项目毫无必要，而它们人为创造的需求使钢铁等产业更加臃肿，导致这些产业生产过剩。

With China’s central planners now having ordered lower growth, some classes of steel became cheaper by weight than cabbages last year. Wangjing, a gleaming new office district in Beijing, is half empty.

现在中国的中央政策制定者已调低增长目标，去年某些品级的钢材按重量计算比白菜还要便宜。望京是北京一个光鲜的新建办公区，现在却有一半闲置着。

The Shanghai Composite index — which owing to China’s strong currency controls is mostly traded on by domestic investors — has lurched 12 per cent lower over the past three months. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, which offers shares of many of the same companies that can be purchased in freely exchangeable Hong Kong dollars, has fallen 13 per cent.

上证综指(Shanghai Composite index)三个月来震荡下跌12%；中国严格的外汇管制意味着，活跃在境内股市的主要是国内投资者。香港恒生指数(Hang Seng index)下跌13%，在上海上市的很多股票也在这里挂牌上市，能用可自由兑换的港元买卖。

But in the longer term, China’s consumer economy is a source of investor optimism. According to Fidelity, 33 out of 100 rural households do not currently own a washing machine or fridge. China’s vast scale makes the numbers even more compelling. For example, McKinsey calculates that China’s online gaming sector — which it valued at $18bn last year — is now bigger than Turkey’s passenger vehicle market.

但从长远来看，中国的消费经济是投资者乐观情绪的来源。根据富达的数据，目前每百户中国农村家庭还有33户没有洗衣机或电冰箱。而中国的庞大规模使此类数字更让人动心。比如，据麦肯锡估计，中国的网络游戏产业去年估值为180亿美元，已超过土耳其的乘用车市场。

The consumer sector is what Mr Nicholls’ Fidelity fund focuses on, and analysts back his ability to pick the right stocks in a slowing economic environment. But because the fund buys riskier, small companies, many remain lukewarm about its growth prospects.

中国的消费领域正是尼科尔斯执掌的富达基金所专注的，分析师们也对他的能力给予肯定，相信他能够在一个不断放缓的经济环境挑选出正确的股票。但由于该基金购买的是风险较高的小公司的股票，许多人仍对其增长前景持冷淡态度。

Numis Securities analyst Ewan Lovett-Turner calls Fidelity’s fund “one for the contrarian”. Brewin Dolphin’s Mr Paul has a neutral rating, meanwhile, calling it “too aggressive” for most of his clients.

Numis Securities分析师伊万洛维特-特纳(Ewan Lovett-Turner)称，富达的这支基金是“适合逆向投资者的基金”。Brewin Dolphin的保罗则给予该基金中性投资评级，但同时称，该基金对于他的大部分客户来说“太过激进”。

The other listed option for UK investors is the JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust, which focuses more the large, blue-chip companies that dominate China’s economy. It is trading at an 18 per cent discount to net asset value.

英国投资者的另一个上市基金选项是摩根大通中国投资信托基金(JPMorgan Chinese Investment Trust)，该基金更关注主导中国经济的大型蓝筹公司。该基金的股价较资产净值有18%的折让。

This fund is also highly geared, at around 116 per cent, which its client director James Glover said is because there are multiple “opportunities” from the “pullback” in equity markets.

该基金的杠杆率也很高，约为116%。其客户总监詹姆斯格洛弗(James Glover)表示，高杠杆率是因为股市的“回调”包含很多“机会”。

Investors managing their own money would be wise to navigate China’s great wall of risks with caution.

对那些自己理财的投资者来说，谨慎对待中国的“风险长城”将是明智之举。

China’s alphabet soup

中国股市简介

Volatility on the Shanghai stock market grabs many headlines, but is not a bourse that foreign institutions are even allowed to put a lot of money into.

上海股市的震荡多次登上报纸头条，但境外机构根本不被允许在该交易所投入大量资金。

Because of Beijing’s strict currency controls, foreign investors mostly buy stocks in Hong Kong, which are broadly labelled as H shares. Shares of the same Chinese companies, for example the country’s largest bank ICBC and China Telecom, trade as an H share in Hong Kong and an A share in the Shanghai market, which is dominated by local investors.

北京方面严格的外汇管制意味着，大多数境外投资者在香港买入中国内地股票，这些股票被宽泛地称为H股。同一家中国公司的股票，比如中国最大银行中国工商银行(ICBC)和中国电信(China Telecom)，在香港作为H股交易，在由本土投资者主导的上海股市则作为A股交易。

The A share market has been the most volatile, with sharp swings in sentiment driving the Shanghai Composite down by ten per cent in the week to July 31 and up 9 per cent in the week to June 5. It is still 21 per cent ahead so far this year.

A股市场是近期震荡幅度最大的市场，投资者情绪的剧烈波动使上证综指在截至6月5日的那一周上涨9%，在截至7月31日的那一周下跌10%。上证综指今年迄今依然上涨了21%。

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index, meanwhile, is up a more sedate 4 per cent this year, even though two out of its three biggest components by weighting — China Mobile and internet giant Tencent — are also companies that trade in Shanghai.

与此同时，香港恒生指数今年仅平缓上涨4%，尽管其三大成分股中的两家——中国移动(China Mobile)和互联网巨擘腾讯(Tencent)——也同时在上海挂牌上市。

But the same companies’ stocks are valued completely different on the A and H share markets. ICBC’s stock trades at 98 per cent of its book value in Hong Kong, and 110 per cent in Shanghai. Overall, shares in Shanghai are trading at a 35 per cent premium to their Hong Kong counterparts, according to Bloomberg data.

不过同一家公司的股票在A股和H股市场上股价相差较大。工行股票在香港的股价为账面价值的98%，而在上海则为110%。根据彭博(Bloomberg)的数据，整体上，A股相对于H股有35%的溢价。

James Glover, client director of listed investment trust JPMorgan Chinese, said that his fund’s wide discount to NAV has been driven by the headline-grabbing ructions in Shanghai. Like most foreign-managed China funds, however, this trust has scant exposure to A shares. “Our weighting to A shares last quarter was 4 per cent,” he said.

摩根大通的詹姆斯格洛弗表示，其中国投资信托基金股价相对于资产净值的大幅折让是上海股市引人注目的震荡所致。然而，就像大多数境外管理的中国基金一样，该基金对A股的敞口很小。“上个季度我们对A股的投资比重为4%，”格洛弗说。