You had a tough 2014. In September, you left Pimco, the investment firm you founded in 1971, where you became known as “the bond king.” What was the hardest part about the past year for you? The fact that I was fired. That was hard — very hard — for me, because I’m sensitive. I’m just sensitive to negative criticism — which I think was unfair and unjust. You haven’t been divorced yet, have you?
你的2014有些艰难。9月，你离开了太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)，也就是你在1971年创办的投资公司，你在那里成了众所周知的“债券之王”。对你而言，过去一年中最艰难的事情是什么？就是我被解雇一事。因为我很敏感，所以这对我来说很艰难——非常艰难。我就是对负面批评很敏感，我认为那都是不公平公正的。你目前还没离过婚，对吧？
Nope. I’m happily married. Sorry, the “yet” was not appropriate. Just to explain, it’s sort of like divorce. You don’t want to get up and get out of bed. It is depressing, and it was a hard period of time and sort of still is. But it gets better every day. Like when you’re divorced, you have to meet new people, and life goes on.
没有。我的婚姻很幸福。不好意思，说“目前还没”不是很合适。我只是想解释，这件事有点像离婚。你不想起床，不愿意下床。很沮丧，这段时间很难熬，而且从某种程度而言，至今仍然如此。但是，情况在一天天好转。就像你离婚之后，还是要去认识人，生活还要继续。

You have to deal with the market and your business and then your personal life. Are you good at compartmentalizing? I think I’ve been able to do that really well. I don’t know if that’s a positive, but I think I can separate it. I went through a nasty divorce years ago and powered through it while building a business and doing well in the market. Maybe that doesn’t speak to being a well-rounded human being. I don’t know.
你需要同时打理市场、你的生意，然后还有你的个人生活。你擅长区分这些东西吗？我认为，我一直处理得非常好。我不知道这算不算有益的事，但我认为我能区分开来。几年前，我经历了一次不愉快的离婚，并竭尽全力地渡过了那个时期；我还创办了一个企业，在市场上的表现很好。或许这无法说明我是一个面面俱到的人。我也不知道。
As an undergraduate at Duke, you majored in psychology. Do you use what you learned there when you invest? You don’t need a degree in psychology to understand human nature. There was an old dude, Jesse Livermore, who wrote a great book that said the most important thing in investing was to know yourself — your weaknesses, your flaws and your strengths.
你在杜克大学(Duke)本科学的是心理学。你在做投资的时候，会利用自己所学吗？要理解人性，你不需要拿心理学的学位。过去有个叫杰西·利弗莫尔(Jesse Livermore)的人，他写了一本伟大的书，书中称，投资中最重要的就是了解自己——你的弱点、你的缺陷和你的长处。
The big question on Wall Street right now is when the Fed will raise interest rates. When do you think they’ll go up? Probably sometime this year. You know, if you’re sick in bed, you’re lying around for 24 hours, at some point you just want to get out of bed and walk around the house for a while. And I think the Fed wants to get off zero, if only to get a sense as to whether they can begin the process of getting healthy again.
目前，华尔街面临的最大的问题就是，美联储将在何时提高利率。你认为利率会何时上涨？可能会在今年。这就像是如果你卧病在床，一天24小时一直躺在那里，你有时就是想起床，在屋子里走动一会儿。我认为，美联储也想摆脱零利率，即便只是看看他们是否可以开始恢复健康的进程了。
Do you think that this low-interest-rate environment has helped or hurt the economy? The savings side of the economy has been damaged. At 2 or 3 percent interest rates, there’s no way insurance companies and pension funds can justify their liabilities and guarantees going forward. Same thing with Mom and Dad and their expectations for education, retirement and so on.
你认为这种低利率的环境对经济有利还是有害？经济在储蓄这个层面上受到了损害。在利率为2%到3%的情况下，保险公司和养老基金根本无法接受他们的潜在保险责任和担保。有子女的人以及他们对教育、退休等问题的期望都是如此。
So what’s the average person supposed to do? Save more. An investor could also take on more risk. I wouldn’t recommend that, but that is something investors are doing, which suggests there’s a bubble.
那么，普通人应该怎么做？把钱更多地存下来。投资者也可以冒更大的险。对此我不推荐，但投资者就是这么做的，这说明这里存在泡沫。
Is the bubble in stocks or in bonds? I think both. I sort of have a sense of an ending. I think that the 35-year bull market in bonds and in stocks is ending. Now, when you say something like that, it conjures up a crash. It doesn’t have to be that way. It probably ends, like T. S. Eliot said, with a whimper and not a bang.
泡沫在股票市场还是债券市场？我认为两者都有。我隐约感觉结局即将到来。我认为，债券和股票市场持续了35年的牛市即将结束。现在，如果你说出这样的话，就会让人联想起灾难。事情并非总是那样。正如T· S·艾略特(T. S. Eliot)所说，它的终结或许不是砰的一声，而是一声抽泣。
I have to know: Why do you wear your tie like that? I came down here to Orange County in ’71 from L.A., and Pimco had this brand-new, beautiful building, but they didn’t have a gym or showers. I was an exercise nut. At noon, I’d change in the bathroom and then run for about five miles. Since there wasn’t a shower, I’d towel off as best I could, but I’d be sweating and hot for an hour or two. So in the afternoon, I began to just not tie my tie. Then a year or two later, I said: “Well, what the hell, I guess I’m not tying it in the afternoon, I’ll just not tie it in the morning either.”
我很想知道：为什么你是这样戴领带的？1971年，我从洛杉矶来到奥兰治县，Pimco有一栋漂亮的新楼，但他们没有健身房，也没有淋浴，而我是运动狂人。下午，我会在洗手间换好衣服，然后跑大概5英里。因为没有淋浴，我只好尽量用毛巾擦干汗水，但是接下来一两个小时，我还会流汗，而且觉得热。所以，我下午就开始不系领带了。然后过了一两年，我说：“好吧，管他的，既然下午不系领带了，那上午干脆也不系了。”
Now you’ve joined Janus Capital Management as portfolio manager. You’re 71. What motivates you to keep doing this? I have an obsessive quality to me. When I left Pimco — or, put it this way, when Pimco left me — it was important to me to prove that they made a mistake.
现在，你作为投资组合经理加入了骏利资产管理公司(Janus Capital Management)。你已经71岁了。你的动力来自哪里？我有一点强迫症。当我离开太平洋的时候——或者说当太平洋离开我时——对我来说，有必要证明他们犯了一个错。
Are you going to do this forever? Well, my wife tells me she married me for better or worse — but not for lunch.
你会一直做这件事吗？我妻子告诉我，她嫁给我算好事坏事说不好——但肯定不是冲着午餐来的。