智能手表新时代终于到来，Apple Watch宣告正式发售。尽管这并不是说你现在随便走进一家苹果商店就能买到，很可能得等到5月才行。但现在正是我们来探讨一个重要问题的好时机：各位读者，你们应不应该成为Apple Watch的早期用户呢？
The Apple Watch was officially released today. That doesn’t mean you can walk up to the counter and buy one yet—watches may not be coming to retail outlets until May—but now is as good a time as any to ask the all-important question: Should you, gentle reader, become an Apple Watch early adopter?
答案或许归根结底要看你对这款产品感觉怎样。评论人士告诉我们，Apple Watch很酷，虽然稍有瑕疵，但绝对是可穿戴科技领域的首款主流产品。如果对你来说，把一款苹果移动产品绑在身上不是非常有吸引力，那就不难下决定：暂时不买。不过对像我这样的科技狂热者来说，买不买第一代Apple Watch根本不用问，非买不可。
The answer may simply come down to your feelings about the product, which the reviewers tell us is a cool, somewhat flawed, but legitimately mainstream first foray into wearable technology. If the idea of literally strapping an Apple mobile device to your body doesn’t sound very appealing, then the decision isn’t complicated: Skip it for now. At the other end of the spectrum are tech junkies like me for whom a first-generation Apple Watch isn’t a question at all, but an inevitability.
But for many normal people who make rational purchasing decisions based on costs and benefits—let me know what that’s like sometime!—the Apple Watch presents a real dilemma: Do you take the plunge and get in early on the smartwatch trend, or do you wait until the kinks have been worked out?
A short history of Apple price cutting
Your decision should largely depend on two variables: How much cheaper and better will the Apple Watch be in the future, and how long will one have to wait until that future arrives?
A look at Apple’s major new product categories going back to the beginning of the millennium gives us some insight into both of these unknowns.
The original iPod.Released in October of 2001, it cost $399 and shipped with five gigabytes of storage. A year and a half later, the first major hardware revision—which introduced the dock connector and a greatly improved and less break-prone interface—doubled the base model’s storage and dropped the price down to $299.
The iPhone.A cautionary tale for early adopters if there ever was one. Launched in late June 2007 with the 8 gigabyte model retailing for $599, the iPhone’s price was cut to $399 less than three months later. And just over a year after the original release, Apple shipped the iPhone 3G at $199, a 66% price reduction.
Apple TV机顶盒。并不是所有苹果新产品的价格都会如此迅速下降。Apple TV机顶盒就三年半没有降价。但当它开始降价时，一下从2007年3月的299美元降到了2010年9月的99美元。
Apple TV.Not all of Apple’s new product categories have seen their price fall quite so fast. The Apple TV didn’t get cheaper for three and a half years; but between March 2007 and September 2010 it went from basically a $299 media center PC to a $99 streaming box.
iPad。也许有人会说，iPad的价格没有太大的变化。问世四年多以来，iPad基本款售价仍是原来的499美元。不过，许多等待了两年半的消费者以329美元买下iPad mini后，都觉得这个选择很明智。销售预期已经显示，iPad mini才是大多数人实际上想要的。
The iPad.Some might argue that the price of the iPad hasn’t changed much at all. More than four years after its release, the base model still sells for the original sticker price of $499. That said, the many consumers who waited two and a half years for the $329 iPad Mini feel they made a very wise decision—and it’s hard to argue considering that sales estimates suggests it’s the iPad most people actually wanted.
So what’s the bottom line? Well, I crunched the numbers together (you can see my admittedly unscientific methodology in the footnote below) and found that since 2000, the average major new consumer-product category from Apple fell 48% in price between the original launch and the first major price cut, which on average took 2 years and 3 months.