Lex专栏 中国房企H股的牛市行情
日期:2015-05-06 11:37


In China’s liquidity-inspired rally, the latest beneficiaries are shares in Hong-Kong listed Chinese residential property developers. After lagging most mainland brethren over the first quarter, the sector is catching up, rising an average of two-fifths so far this quarter. State-owned blue-chip and institutional favourite China Overseas Land and Investment, up nearly one-third, is at a record high. Trading at 2 times historic book value, it no longer looks cheap versus its five-year average of 2.1 times. Peer China Resources Land, up a similar magnitude, already trades above its five-year average.
在中国此轮由流动性引发的涨势行情中,最新的受益者是在香港上市的中国住宅房地产开发商。在第一季度落后于多数内地同行之后,该板块正迎头赶上,本季度迄今平均上涨了五分之二。机构青睐的国有蓝筹股——中国海外发展(China Overseas Land and Investment)的股价上涨了近三分之一,目前已位于记录高点。该股目前的交易价格是历史账面价值的2倍,相比起其2.1倍的5年平均水平,看起来不再便宜。同行华润置地(China Resources Land)涨幅相当,目前的股价已经高于5年平均水平。

Bears might argue that the run in a troubled sector is further sign of the bubbly nature of China’s rally; recent data, however, point to a turnround. Yesterday, real estate consultancy Shanghai Uwin said Shanghai new home sale volumes rose by three-fifths in April, with prices up more than 5 per cent month on month. News agency Xinhua said that secondary unit sales in Beijing hit a 25-month high. And last week, April new home prices in China’s top cities were flat compared with March, according to property researcher China Index Academy, potentially bottoming. The recovery is trickling down, too. Deutsche Bank says that sales volume in third and fourth tier cities rose substantially versus March; prices also ticked up.
看空者或许认为这一问题板块的行情进一步表明了中国此轮涨势的泡沫本质;然而,最近的数据有所好转。昨天,房地产咨询公司上海佑威(Shanghai Uwin)称,4月上海新建商品住宅成交量环比上涨约60%,成交均价环比上涨逾5%。新华社称,北京二手房成交量处于25个月高点。房地产研究机构中国指数研究院(China Index Academy)上周数据显示,中国主要城市4月新建住宅均价与3月持平,可能表明房价已经触底。房地产复苏也在向下层渗透。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)称,中国三四线城市的住宅销量较3月大幅增加,价格也出现上升。
So in spite of previously poor data for mid-cap names — including rights issues and China’s first corporate dollar debt default from developer Kaisa — smaller companies are outperforming: Hopson and Greenland, for instance, have nearly doubled in recent weeks.
The run could continue. Many mid-caps, such as Franshion and Greentown and China Overseas Grand Oceans, still trade below historic book values. As shares rise, bargain-hunting investors should keep an eye on city-specific pricing and inventory trends. Seasoned estate agents know: property is all about location, location, location.
此轮涨势可能会继续。方兴地产(Franshion)、绿城(Greentown)和中国海外宏洋(China Overseas Grand Oceans)等很多中盘股目前的股价仍然低于历史账面价值。随着股价上涨,寻求抄底的投资者应该密切关注特定城市的房价走势及库存趋势。经验丰富的房地产经纪人知道:房地产最重要的三个因素就是位置、位置、还是位置。