If there is consensus on any single trade these uncertain days, it is that the dollar will continue rising, up 23 per cent since June, albeit with some volatility. Equally, there is agreement that an ascendant dollar will only aggravate the negative circumstances of emerging markets. “2015 may turn out to be the year of localised emerging market currency crises,” notes Stephen Jen, of SLJ Macro in London.
在最近这种不确定的日子里，如果说人们还对某个市场走向有共同的看法，那就是美元将继续上涨——自去年6月以来美元已经上涨了23%，尽管中间有一些波动。人们还认为，美元不断上涨肯定会使新兴市场的处境更加不利。伦敦SLJ Macro的任永力(Stephen Jen)指出：“2015年新兴市场可能遭遇局部性的货币危机。”
Less alarmingly, JPMorgan economists recently noted: “Many emerging markets are hobbled by some combination of depressed corporate profitability, excessive private sector leverage, tight financial conditions and poor governance,” to which add fears of capital outflows.
让人也有点担心的是，摩根大通(JPMorgan)经济学家们最近指出：“许多新兴市场受到企业盈利能力疲弱、私人部门过度杠杆化、金融状况紧缩以及治理不善等因素综合作用的困扰。”除此之外它们还担忧资本外流。
There is a lot of history on the side of the pessimists. Many emerging market corporates set aside the lessons of history and borrowed cheap dollars a few years ago, even if they lacked dollar revenues. They assumed that a rise was improbable — given that one of the points of quantitative easing in the US was precisely to weaken the dollar.
历史上有许多例子支持悲观者的看法。数年前，许多新兴市场企业无视历史教训，大量借入廉价美元，即便它们缺少美元收入。它们认为，鉴于美国量化宽松的一个用意正是压低美元汇率，美元不可能上涨。
But now that the US appears to be moving (however reluctantly) to raise rates, while the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank continue on the path of aggressive monetary easing, the euro and yen have dropped against the greenback, as have the currencies of virtually every emerging market. The notable exception to the general pattern, of course, is the Chinese renminbi, or yuan, (which is also an exception to Mr Jen’s generalisation that now is the time to sell four letter currencies). Today, many market participants assume the dollar will strengthen further, the euro and yen will continue to weaken and the Chinese will inevitably devalue their currency.
但现在美国似乎正朝着加息的方向靠近（无论多么不情愿），同时日本央行(BOJ)和欧洲央行(ECB)继续在量化宽松的道路上阔步前进，为此欧元和日元兑美元汇率已经下跌，而几乎所有新兴市场的货币也是如此。当然，人民币是个明显例外。如今，许多市场参与者认为，美元将进一步上涨，欧元和日元将继续下跌，而中国人将不可避免地让他们的货币贬值。
But neither the dollar nor the renminbi may fulfil those widespread expectations. Among those who think the dollar is at its cyclical peak is David Bloom, the chief currency strategist of HSBC, who notes that the dollar is already up 40 per cent since its 2011 low, a rise that way exceeds its average 20 per cent move against other currencies.
但无论是美元还是人民币都可能不会满足那些普遍预期。汇丰(HSBC)首席外汇策略师戴维•布卢姆(David Bloom)等一些人就认为，美元已处于周期的顶部。布卢姆指出，美元自2011年低点以来上涨了40%，这已经远远超过了它对其他货币平均20%的涨幅。
“We are in the last throes of the US dollar bull party,” he warns. “Time to leave.”
布卢姆警告道：“我们处于美元上涨盛宴的最后阵痛阶段。是时候离开了。”
Mr Bloom adds that recent macro data in the US fall short of expectations; that the US government is likely to resist further appreciation because of its impact on everything from corporate earnings to exports, and that market positioning suggests the dollar is overbought. Moreover, he points out the pattern is that the dollar rises on talk of rate increases but does not move further up when the Fed actually embarks on rate rises.
布卢姆补充称，美国最近发布的宏观经济数据不如预期；美国政府可能不愿让美元进一步升值，因为这会对企业利润、出口等各个领域造成影响，而且市场持仓情况表明美元已经超买。此外，他还指出，美元往往会因加息传言而上涨，但是当美联储(Fed)真的开始加息时，美元不会进一步上涨。
It is equally probable that the markets are wrong on China looking for a weaker currency.
同样，市场对中国寻求人民币贬值的判断也有可能是错误的。
“China is the great exception,” notes Chen Long of Gave Kal Dragonomics, a research boutique, in a recent piece entitled “Don’t Bet on a Renminbi Depreciation.” That is partly because Beijing is not pursuing the conventional Asian mercantilist policy of driving down its currency to support exports in a zero sum game.
研究机构龙洲经讯(Gave Kal Dragonomics)的陈龙在最近发表的一篇名为《别押注人民币贬值》(Don’t Bet on a Renminbi Depreciation)的文章中指出，“中国是一大例外”。其中一个原因是，北京方面目前没有奉行亚洲传统的重商主义政策，即不玩压低本币汇率以支持出口的零和游戏。
It is true, of course, that the growth of debt in China has been vast and that a large part of it is dollar denominated. Cross-border claims on all Chinese borrowers rose almost 40 per cent from September 2013 to September 2014. Chinese non-renminbi denominated corporate debt has gone from $270bn in 2008 to $983bn in 2014, according to data from Morgan Stanley. (Of total debt in China, more than a quarter is in US dollars.) That is a constraint, but the main argument against more than a slight depreciation of the currency is not about the debt, or even about capital outflows, which the government frets about and monitors carefully, despite its $3.8tn in reserves.
当然，中国债务大规模增长而且很大一部分债务以美元计价，这是事实。从2013年9月到2014年9月，中国各类借款人的跨境负债总额增长了近40%。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的数据显示，2014年，中国非人民币计价的企业债务从2008年的2700亿美元增加至9830亿美元（在中国的全部债务中，逾四分之一是以美元计价的）。这是一个约束因素，但人民币不会大幅贬值的主要理由与债务无关，甚至也与资本外流无关——尽管中国拥有3.8万亿美元外汇储备，但中国政府仍对资本外流感到担心，并对此密切监控。
In fact, China is playing a longer and a different game. Unlike most of its competitors it is relying on moving up the value added curve, developing innovative technology and leading edge research for its competitive edge. It is moving away from its (and its Asian neighbours’) export-driven manufacturing model and the quick fix of depreciation. It is also moving toward a more domestic demand-driven economy. More importantly, it has determined that a stable to gradually appreciating currency is the best approach of eventually challenging the US dollar’s hegemony as the world’s only reserve currency.
实际上，中国有着更为长远和截然不同的谋划。与大多数竞争对手不同，中国目前依赖于提升自身在价值链上的位置、发展创新科技，以及领导前沿研究以获得竞争优势。中国正转变自己（及其亚洲邻国）那种出口主导型的制造模式，也不再通过贬值来快速解决问题。同时，中国经济增长正在逐步转向更多地依靠内需推动。更重要的是，中国断定，人民币稳定、渐进升值是最终挑战美元作为全球唯一储备货币的霸主地位的最佳方式。
There are lots of question marks about the probability of that happening outside China. But inside, there is a lot more certainty.
中国以外的地区对出现这一结果的可能性存在许多疑问，但中国国内对这一点要确定得多。