It was one of the most hotly awaited Federal Reserve meetings since Janet Yellen became Fed chairwoman over a year ago. The Fed on Wednesday ditched its pledges to be patient before increasing interest rates, allowing it to hike as soon as June in what would be the first upward move for close to a decade.
这是自珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)一年前上任美联储(Fed)主席后，最受外界期待的一次美联储会议。在周三的这次会议上，美联储放弃了在加息问题上“保持耐心”的承诺，这使得美联储最早将于6月加息，这将是美联储近10年来首次加息。
However, the Fed surprised markets by setting out a shallow longer-term path for rate hikes — as well as by cutting its growth and inflation projections. This changed picture likely reflects in part the recent surge in the dollar, which is dragging on the US economy. The overall message is that the Fed still wants to prime the markets for higher rates, but it is very much taking a softly-softly approach.
然而，让市场感到意外的是，美联储指出的较长期的利率上行幅度低于预测，同时下调了经济增速和通胀预期。这些变化在一定程度上反映在了美元走势中，美元最近的飙升正拖累美国经济。总体而言，美联储传递出这样一种信息：它仍希望市场对加息做好准备，但它的动作会十分轻柔。
No more “patience”?
不再“保持耐心”？
That word — effectively a pledge to keep rates at near-zero levels for at least two meetings — no longer appears in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement. This was no surprise. Ms Yellen said pretty clearly to Congress back in February that she wanted to free the FOMC’s hands to move rates when it saw fit. The Fed is making a careful transition away from its practice of offering markets meticulous guidance on where borrowing costs will go, to making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
“耐心”一词没有出现在美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的最新声明中。这并不令人意外。此前，这个词的出现实际上意味着，美联储承诺将接近零的利率至少再维持两次会议。今年2月，耶伦曾非常明确地告诉美国国会，她希望让该委员会放开手脚，能够视时机自由调整利率。美联储正小心地改变先前的一种做法，那就是向市场提供有关利率走向的细致指引，而是更多以每次会议作为节点做出利率决策。
What are the Fed’s new signals on rates?
美联储在利率方面发出了何种新信号？
The Fed has a new test which was also foreshadowed in Ms Yellen’s Congressional testimony. Rate-setters will need to see “further improvement in the labor market” as well as being “reasonably confident” that inflation is heading back to the 2 per cent target over the medium term — around three years. The FOMC’s new forecasts suggest unemployment is on the right track — it will drop to as low as 4.8 per cent by 2017 from the current 5.5 per cent level. While weak inflation is a bigger headache for the Fed, the recent declines in inflation are still expected to be transitory, with the FOMC expecting price growth to be running at 1.9 to 2 per cent by 2017.
美联储需要考虑一系列新的经济形势，耶伦在国会上的证词已经预示了这一点。它需要看到“劳动力市场的进一步改善”，并且“有理由相信”通胀将在中期（3年左右）达到2%的目标。FOMC的最新预测表明，失业率的走势符合预期——到2017年将从当前的5.5%下降至4.8%。尽管偏弱的通胀是令美联储更为头痛的问题，但近期通胀下降仍然预期是暂时性的。FOMC预计，到2017年通胀率将达1.9%至2%。
So the way is clear for hikes this year?
那么，今年加息的道路已扫清吗？
That is still the view of the vast majority of the FOMC. Some 15 of 17 members expect the first move to come in 2015. And while Ms Yellen insisted that the market should not assume an initial hike will come as soon as June, she was not ruling that month out either. But the message that investors took away from the Fed’s March meeting was a dovish one: the latest rate projections from Fed officials suggest the first move now won’t come until September. FOMC members’ median interest rate projections for the end of 2015, 2016 and 2017 were all reduced by 0.5-0.75 of a point compared with December.
是的，这仍是FOMC绝大多数委员的观点。17名委员中有15名预计，第一次加息将发生在2015年。尽管耶伦坚称，市场不应想当然地认为最早将于6月首次加息，但她也不排除这种可能。但是，投资者从美联储最新会议中听到的仍是一种鸽派的声音：美联储官员的最新利率预测显示，首次加息将不会早于9月。 FOMC委员们对2015年底、2016年底和2017年底的利率预测平均值，都较去年12月时的水平降低了0.5至0.75个点。
Why the changed interest-rate outlook?
为何利率展望发生了改变？
The Fed’s projections for interest rates, growth and inflation are all weaker than in December — and a number of factors are at work. A critical one is the dollar’s surge to multi-decade highs, which has in itself represented an effective tightening of financial conditions. While Ms Yellen said the strong dollar reflected a strong US economy, she also observed that it would restrain import prices and inflation for longer than expected. The FOMC also noted a weakening in exports, which is a result of the dollar’s surge. There are other changes that tilt in a dovish direction. For example, the Fed has decided that the longer-run rate of unemployment is lower than previously believed, at 5-5.2 per cent compared with 5.2-5.5 per cent, which could point to more slack in the jobs market.
美联储目前对利率、经济增长和通胀率的预期均弱于去年12月。背后有很多原因。一个关键因素，是美元汇率飙升至几十年来的高点，这表明资金状况有所收紧。尽管耶伦表示，美元走强反映了美国经济的强劲，但她也评论道，这将在比预期更长的时间内抑制进口价格和通胀率。FOMC还提到了美元飙升造成的出口疲软。
What was the market reaction?
市场有何反应？
The Fed’s shallower path for rate hikes — plus its jawboning on dollar headwinds — led to a sharp drop in the greenback against the euro on Wednesday afternoon. Stocks rallied, as did bonds, in a reflection of relief among investors that the Fed is taking a cautious approach to higher rates. As Ms Yellen said herself: the opposite of patient is not impatient — a message traders embraced with relief. Officials still expect rates to settle eventually at 3.75 per cent — much higher than the market expects — but it will take longer for them to get there. The question remains whether the Fed is mollycoddling investors with dovish language — and whether a sharp and painful adjustment to the market’s rock-bottom interest-rate expectations still lies ahead.
美联储给出了加息幅度将小于预期的信号，加上它对美元上行的警告，导致周三下午美元兑欧元汇率大跌。债市和股市同时上涨，表明投资者相信美联储对加息的考量十分慎重。正如耶伦自己所说，耐心的反义词不是不耐烦——这一信息让交易员们欣然松了口气。官员们仍预计利率最终将达到3.75%，这个水平远高于市场预期，但要经过更长时间才能达到。现在的疑问是，美联储是否在用温和语言纵容投资者，而对市场最低利率预期的剧烈、痛苦的调整仍可能出现。