The euro fell closer to parity with the dollar yesterday, as the US currency’s strength heightened the policy conundrum facing the US Federal Reserve as it prepares for its first interest-rate rise in nearly a decade.
昨天，欧元下跌，逼近与美元平价水平。美元强势突显出美联储(Fed)在准备近10年来首次加息时面临的政策难题。
The euro dipped under $1.06 as Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank president, credited the cheap single currency with helping the reversal in the eurozone’s slowdown and said euro area developments are “pointing in the right direction”.
欧元兑美元汇率跌破1欧元兑1.06美元水平。欧洲央行(ECB)行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)认为廉价的单一货币有助于逆转欧元区经济放缓，称欧元区各项发展正“指向正确的方向”。
The moves come as the Fed prepares for a key policy meeting next week at which it is expected to lay the groundwork for a rate rise as soon as June by dropping a pledge to be “patient”. The dollar is rising in part because of the prospect of higher interest rates and stronger growth. That is squeezing earnings of exporters and US companies with large global operations, and could damp inflation as import prices fall.
此举正值美联储准备下周举行关键的政策会议，预计美联储届时将摒弃“耐心”承诺，为最早于6月开始加息铺平道路。美元走强的部分原因在于人们对加息以及更强劲增长的展望。这挤压着出口商及拥有大规模全球业务的美国企业的利润空间，并可能随着进口价格的下降而压低通胀。
Some US policy makers concede that the value of the greenback has triggered concern among corporations. James Bullard, president of the St Louis Fed, told the Financial Times he could understand some of the “consternation” but that big companies can hedge their currency exposure. The bulk of the dollar gains may have happened, he added.
美国一些政策制定者承认，美元汇率已经在企业界引发忧虑。圣路易斯联储(St Louis Fed)行长詹姆士•布拉德(James Bullard)向英国《金融时报》(Financial Times)表示，他可以理解某些“恐慌”，但是大企业可以对冲其汇率风险敞口。他补充称，美元上涨的大部分可能已经发生。
“We are trying to run the best monetary policy for the United States that we can,” he said, warning that an interest rate rise was already overdue. “We are going to let the exchange rate go where it needs to go to equilibrate international markets.”
“我们正在试图实行对美国最有利的货币政策，”他表示。他警告称，加息的时机已经晚了一点。“我们会让汇率向着平衡国际市场的方向发展。”
Gary Cohn, president and chief operating officer at Goldman Sachs, said the foreign exchange moves were putting the Fed in “a very tough position”.
高盛(Goldman Sachs)总裁兼首席运营官盖瑞•柯恩(Gary Cohn)称，汇市变动将美联储置于“一个非常艰难的境地”。
He added: “The Fed is going to be continuously in this tough dilemma where they are going to want to raise interest rates — and I fundamentally understand why they want to raise interest rates — but they are going to be constrained by circumstances and be concerned by the strength of the dollar, and other countries around the world are going to continue to devalue,” he said.
他补充称：“美联储将继续处于这种艰难的进退两难之地，一方面想要加息——我从根本上能理解他们为什么想要加息——但另一方面受到实际情况的制约，并对美元走强、而世界其他国家会继续贬值感到担忧。”
Chris Williamson of Markit, who forecast in December that the euro would reach parity against the dollar this year, said: “The Fed looking like it was going to raise rates in 2015 was always going to hit the exchange rate. The clear divergence between the US central bank and the ECB is the big market play in 2015.”
Markit的克里斯•威廉姆森(Chris Williamson)曾在去年12月预测，欧元将在今年触及与美元平价的水平。他称：“美联储看起来将在2015年加息，这必然会影响汇率。美国央行与欧洲央行之间的明显分化将是2015年的市场主旋律。”
The single currency’s depreciation, alongside lower oil prices and the bank’s quantitative easing programme, had led ECB economists to upgrade their economic forecasts, Mr Draghi said at a conference in Frankfurt.
德拉吉在法兰克福一个会议上称，欧元贬值，再加上油价下跌以及欧洲央行启动量化宽松计划，已促使欧洲央行的经济学家上调了他们的经济预测。
The euro fell 1.6 per cent yesterday to a 12-year low of $1.0524 and has dropped 12 per cent since the start of the year. The dollar index, measuring the currency against a basket of its major peers, rose nearly 0.9 per cent to a 12-year high of 99.649.
昨天，欧元兑美元汇率下跌1.6%，至1欧元兑1.0524美元的12年低点，今年迄今已下跌12%。衡量美元对一篮子主要货币汇率变化的美元指数上涨近0.9%，至99.649的12年高点。
The ECB now expects growth of 1.5 per cent this year, up from a December estimate of 1 per cent.
欧洲央行现在预计今年欧元区的增长率为1.5%，高于去年12月预测的1%。