Commodity cycles. We have all seen them. High returns and low barriers to entry suck in lots of players, profits fall, no one exits, companies bleed to death. Of course, sometimes one or two participants gain a competitive advantage (for instance technology, or financial backing) to ensure survival. For the rest it is carnage.
大宗商品周期。我们都见过它们。回报高，进入障碍较低，吸引了很多参与者，随后利润下降，谁也不愿退出，企业“失血过多”致死。当然，有时一、两个参与者获得某种竞争优势（比如技术或资金支持）以确保生存。对其他参与者来说，整个过程像是一场大屠杀。
In the past decade China, with its predilection for irrational capital allocation, has been a big player in low tech, capital-intensive industries such as solar panel production. Developed world subsidies made the industry profitable, and Chinese companies leapt in. A glut in output ensued.
过去10年里，存在非理性资本配置倾向的中国，一直在大力发展技术水平低的资本密集型产业，如太阳能电池板的生产。发达国家的补贴使该行业能够盈利，于是中国企业竞相涌入。供应过剩接踵而至。
The share price performance of Hong Kong-listed China solar play Hanergy this week might suggest that things are looking up. On Thursday morning, the stock jumped as much as 40 per cent, adding $14bn to the company’s value. Even before that it was up two-fifths since Monday. The shares, nearly three-quarters of which are owned by the founder Li Hejun, closed up 14 per cent for a market capitalisation of $40bn.
在香港上市的中国太阳能企业汉能(Hanergy)本周的股价表现可能表明，情况正在好转。周四上午，该股飙升40%，使公司市值一举增加140亿美元。在那之前，该股自周一以来已上涨五分之二。昨日该股收盘涨14%，市值达到400亿美元。创始人李河君拥有该公司近四分之三的股份。
There has been good news. This week, both Hanergy and peer GCL Poly announced positive profit warnings. GCL Poly will make its first profit in three years; Hanergy’s profits will rise more than half year on year (that is one-third ahead of market forecasts). And a recent viral video in China may have helped to reignite interest in the environment. On China’s mainland indices, stocks with “environment” in the name have hit Shanghai’s maximum 10 per cent upside move each day this week. Hong Kong has no constraints and through Stock Connect (which links the Shanghai and Hong Kong exchanges), Hanergy has been mainlanders’ top net buy this week.
近来有一些利好消息。本周，汉能和同行保利协鑫能源(GCL Poly)都发布了正面盈利预告。保利协鑫将报告3年来首次盈利；汉能的利润将同比增长50%以上（比市场预测高出三分之一）。最近一部在中国被广泛点播的视频可能重燃了人们对环境问题的兴趣。在中国内地股指中，本周名称中带有“环境”的成份股天天在上海股市涨停（触及10%的每日涨幅上限）。香港股市没有此类涨停限制，通过连接上海和香港股市的“沪港通”，汉能是本周内地投资者净买入量最大的股票。
But Hanergy is not quite like other Chinese solar companies. The stock is now valued at over 100 times the 2014 earnings it just flagged. Its market capitalisation — $1.4bn two years ago — is now $39bn. The share price rise has been breathtaking. But falls from grace can be no less spectacular.
但汉能与中国其它太阳能企业并不是很相像。当前股价达到该公司刚刚指引的2014年盈利的逾100倍。两年前仅14亿美元的市值，现已达到390亿美元。迄今的股价上涨令人喘不过气，但假如掉头下跌，其跌势也会同样壮观。