High in a building in central Kuala Lumpur, not far from the twin Petronas Towers that dominate the Malaysian capital’s skyline, staff at Oriental Pacific Futures are busy broking futures for some of the group’s 1,000 or so clients.
Since late last year, when trading volume on Bursa Malaysia’s equities market started to slow, there has been more interest in trading futures in Southeast Asia’s third-largest economy, says Ryan Chua, manager of dealing. “People see there’s more volatility with futures so they are more willing to give it a try,” he says.
Derivatives trading on Bursa hit a record last year, up 17 per cent year on year. The most widely traded contracts were palm oil futures, which allow traders to speculate on prices of the edible oil, of which Malaysia is one of the largest producers. That contract grew 28 per cent in volume during 2014.
Malaysia is not well known for futures trading, and nor is the region, outside Japan, South Korea and Singapore, which have more developed markets.
But that is changing. Exchanges have been upgrading their trading systems and putting on roadshows to promote use of derivatives among an unexpected group: retail investors. Most of them are male and in their 30s — the typical client at Oriental Pacific, which was set up in 2007 by its parent Julong, a palm oil company based in China.
In Thailand retail investors accounted for 55 per cent of volume on the local futures exchange last year. Brokers say the high proportion of retail participation in Asia’s derivatives markets is a result of speculative appetite in many parts of the region.
Bourses are also tapping a growing middle class that is becoming familiar with futures trading, which is riskier than equities but can offer higher returns.
Not everyone thinks this is the best way to ensure sustainable growth for Asia’s futures markets, however. Industry experts say the region should encourage institutional participants. “Derivatives are a hedging tool and not actually created purely for speculation, so for a healthy market you need to see a balance between retail and institutional investors,” says Matthew Png, chief executive of UOB Bullion & Futures, the futures broking unit of Singapore’s United Overseas Bank.
One way to judge the degree of speculation on a futures market is the ratio of open interest to volume. Open interest is the amount of margin collateral left at the clearing house overnight, and indicates intent to trade in the future. Historically the ratio at futures exchanges in China — so far limited to domestic participants — has been low, indicating relatively few positions held for longer than a single trading session.
“People are trading for the sake of trading,” says Bill Herder, president of the US-based Futures Industry Association’s Asia chapter, in Singapore. “Is that always a good thing?”
Tim Massad, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, said on a visit to Singapore last week that he thought regulators in Asia — particularly China — were aware of the need to encourage institutional participation in futures. “I think you are going to see developments in [that direction] because as the Asian economies continue to grow and become more sophisticated, they need well-developed derivatives markets,” he said.
Foreign banks are preparing their responses to a consultation paper issued last month by the China Securities Regulatory Commission on its plans to give foreigners access to commodity futures — starting with a crude oil contract launched last year on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
That is being taken as a sign of China’s interest in institutional involvement, to ensure balanced market participation.
South Korean authorities were among the first to tackle the issue, in 2010, when regulators took measures to curb speculative activity in Kospi options and futures. Until that point they were so popular with retail investors that Seoul ranked as the world’s largest futures market by number of contracts traded.
Mr Png says exchanges in Asia need a broader set of products, such as government bond and interest rate futures — mainstays of western exchanges — to attract institutional participants. But lack of depth in Asian bond markets remains one impediment. “The growth in the underlying [asset class] needs to pick up first,” he says.
Bursa Malaysia has taken steps in this direction. In December it relaunched a five-year government bond future. The exchange is also planning to reform its membership criteria to encourage the creation of groups of traders — known as “arcades” in the west.
“It’s so that we encourage people to trade professionally and continually, including through mentorship and training,” says Chong Kim Seng, chief executive of Bursa Malaysia Derivatives. “Our whole vision is to get up to the level of the US and Europe.”
在东泰期货(Oriental Pacific Futures)位于吉隆坡市中心一栋大楼高层的办公室内，员工们正忙着为一些客户执行期货交易。该公司有约1000名客户，距离主宰这座首都城市天际线的双峰塔(Petronas Towers)不远。
交易经理Ryan Chua表示，自去年底马来西亚证交所(Bursa Malaysia)的股票成交量开始放缓以来，在这个东南亚第三大经济体，人们对期货交易的兴趣越来越浓厚。他说：“人们看到，期货价格波动更大，所以他们更愿意尝试一下期货交易。”
去年马来西亚证交所的衍生品交易额创下纪录，同比增加17%。交易最多的是棕榈油期货合约，2014年棕榈油期货合约成交量增加了28%，这种期货合约让交易者可对这种食用油的价格展开投机。马来西亚是全球最大的棕榈油生产国之一。
马来西亚并不以期货交易而闻名，除日本、韩国和新加坡之外的亚洲地区也是如此。上述三个国家的期货市场更发达。
但这一局面开始发生改变。各交易所一直在升级交易系统并进行路演，以在散户投资者这个令人意想不到的群体中推广衍生品交易。他们多为30多岁的男性，是东泰期货的典型客户。东泰期货成立于2007年，母公司为中国的棕榈油企业聚龙集团(Julong)。
泰国去年当地期货交易所的成交量中有55%是由散户投资者创造的。经纪商表示，亚洲衍生品市场散户参与比例高的原因，在于亚洲许多地区存在的投机心态。
各交易所也在开发对期货交易越来越熟悉的不断壮大的中产阶层客户。期货交易比股票交易风险更大，但回报率也更高。
然而，并非所有人都认为这是确保亚洲期货市场可持续发展的最佳途径。业内专家表示，亚洲应当鼓励更多机构投资者参与进来。“衍生品是一种套期保值工具，实际上并不是纯粹为投机而创造的，所以，对一个健康的市场而言，散户和机构投资者之间需要达到一定的平衡，”新加坡大华银行(United Overseas Bank)期货经纪子公司UOB Bullion & Futures的首席执行官Matthew Png表示。
判断一个期货市场投机程度的一条途径，是考察持仓量/交易量比率。持仓量是指留在清算所的隔夜保证金数量，它反映未来的交易意图。从历史上看，中国期货交易所的该比率一直处于低位，表明投资者相对只保持很低的仓位超过一个交易日。中国的期货交易所目前仅限国内投资者加入。
“人们是为了交易而交易，”美国期货业协会(Futures Industry Association)新加坡亚洲分部的总裁比尔•赫德(Bill Herder)表示，“这总是一件好事吗？”
美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)主席蒂姆•马萨德(Tim Massad)上周访问新加坡时表示，他认为，亚洲、尤其是中国的监管机构已意识到鼓励机构投资者参与期货交易的必要性。“我认为，大家将会看到（这个方向的）进展，因为随着亚洲经济体的持续增长并日臻成熟，它们会需要发达的衍生品市场，”他说。
上月，中国证监会(CSRC)就其允许外资进入商品期货市场的计划发出了一份征求意见稿，多家外资银行目前正准备给出回应。外资准入将首先从上海期货交易所(Shanghai Futures Exchange)去年推出的原油期货合约开始。
外界认为这表明中国有意鼓励机构投资者参与，确保投资者的市场参与平衡。
2010年，韩国当局成为率先解决这一问题的亚洲当局之一。当年，韩国监管机构采取了措施，以抑制针对韩国综合指数(Kospi)期权和期货的投机行为。在那之前，该指数期权和期货在散户投资者中相当受欢迎，以至于首尔成为全球期货合约成交量最大的期货市场。
Matthew Png表示，亚洲的交易所需要提供范围更广的产品，比如占据西方交易所主流的国债期货和利率期货，以此吸引机构投资者的参与。但亚洲债券市场的深度不够，仍是一个障碍因素。“这首先需要标的（资产类别）的增长提速，”他说。
马来西亚证交所已朝这个方向采取不少措施，于去年12月再度推出了一种5年期国债期货。该交易所也打算改革其会员标准，以推动创建交易员群组——这在西方被称为“交易行”。
“我们以这种方法鼓励人们专业、持续地交易，包括提供辅导和培训，”马来西亚衍生品交易所(Bursa Malaysia Derivatives)首席执行官Chong Kim Seng表示，“我们的愿景是赶上美国和欧洲的水平。”