It's got a small, passably well-off population. It's politically stable. And it doesn't shape international relations. So Taiwan easily gets overlooked. Sometimes you look but don't see much either, a chronic frustration with officials bent on more publicity. But the East Asian island with 23 million people, a crucial link in the global high-tech supply chain and one of the world's edgiest relations with emerging superpower China is on my watch list at a tumultuous 2015.
它人口不多，相当富裕，政治稳定，没有形成国际关系。所以台湾很容易被忽视，有时你去关注了，但也没看到多少对倾向于宣传的官员的长期的失望。但这个有2千3百万人口、作为全球高科技供应链的重要一环、与崛起中的超级大国中国关系全世界最不稳定的东亚小岛，被我列在了对这个喧嚣动荡的2015年的观察名单中。
Here are three reasons:
以下是三个理由：
1.Relations with China stand at a uniquely risky juncture.
1、与中国的关系走到了特别的风险关头。
Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou's efforts of the past seven years to build once impossible trust with Beijing through economic agreements are hitting a wall. China feels it has given Taiwan enough goodies with 21 existing trade, transit and investment deals. Now it's pushing Taiwan for payback: political dialogue that would ultimately settle who owns who. China has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan for 65 years but the island says through opinion polls it prefers self-rule. Taiwanese people led that dialogue in 2014 first with mass street protests against legislative ratification of all-but-abandoned service liberalization pact with China and then in November elections by throwing Ma's Nationalist Party out of a staggering nine mayoral and county magistrate jobs.
The two governments will keep talking this year as if nothing happened last year, but Taiwan will lack mandates to sign new agreements. China hopes for a political concession from Taiwan before Ma steps down due to term limits in 2016, leaving the presidency open to the more anti-Beijing Democratic Progressive Party. Ma has said no way. "Beijing appears concerned with the possibility that, without having adopted a new policy toward mainland (China) based on ‘one China,' the DPP could win the presidency in 2016," says Alan Romberg, East Asia Program director with the Stimson Institute, a think tank in Washington. The party angered China with pursuit of greater independence when in power from 2000 to 2008. Expect China to grow more nervous as the presidential campaign ramps up late this year.
台湾“总统”马英九在过去七年里试图通过经济协定与北京建立一度不可能的信任，但这个努力碰壁了。中国觉得自己在现有的21项贸易、运输和投资协定中中给了台湾足够的好处，现在它正向台湾施压，要求回报：最终决定谁拥有谁这个问题的政治对话。中国宣称拥有台湾主权已经宣称了65年，但台湾的民意测验则表示更愿意自治。台湾人在2014年引领对话，起初是集体街头抗议立法机构批准了与中国进行几乎摒弃的服务贸易自由化协定，后来在11月的选举中将马英九的国民党赶出了九项市县长职位。双方政府今年会继续对话，假装去年什么都没发生，但台湾缺乏签署新协议的授权。中国希望台湾能够做出政治上的让步，在马英九由于任期限制而在2016年下台、让“总统”职务空给更加反北京的民进党之前。马英九说过这不可能。位于华盛顿的智库，史汀生中心东亚研究室主任容安澜说：“北京看上去很担心这样的可能性，就是2016年民进党可能会赢得'总统'职位，而不接受对大陆（中国）的一项基于'一个中国'的新政策。”民进党2000年至2008年在任时，就因追求更多的独立而激怒了中国。可以期望，今年晚些时候总统竞选升温时，中国会变得更紧张。
2.High-tech icons are doing their own thing after decades of contract work.
2、在几十年的合同工作之后，高科技巨头做起了自己的事业
After several years of financial setbacks, Taiwan's big-name high-tech firms know they can't rely anymore on just contract work from original designers, even Apple . That was history. A lot of contract work has leeched over to cheaper China, the US government wants Silicon Valley developers to contract onshore and Vietnam shows early promise as a new Asian tech manufacturer because of its low costs. Taiwanese PC developer Acer, smartphone maker HTC and you-name-it-we-build-it assembler Foxconn know their future depends largely on what they do themselves rather than for others.
Acer, once burned by financial losses and management changes, is trying to bolster its world No. 4 rank in PCs with Google Chromebooks including one with an unusually large 15.6-inch display that it announced this month. HTC is coping with thin profits and a shrunken share of the world smartphone market by experimenting with new stuff: a made-for-social media camera, a tablet or two and perhaps a smart band for athletes – evidenced by its partnership with US sports clothier Under Armor. Expect a me-too, made-in-Taiwan boom in wearable devices after Apple releases the iWatch later this year. Foxconn, struggling against competition for Apple assembly contracts, is said to be developing electric vehicles, robotic tools and its own smartphone, depending on whose buzz you believe.
经过了几年的经济挫折后，台湾的大牌高科技公司意识到他们不能再仅仅依靠原创设计方的合同工作了，即使是苹果公司。那已经成为历史。许多合同工作转向依靠成本更低的中国，美国政府希望硅谷开发者们签订岸上合同，而越南由于其低成本成为了新的亚洲科技制造国，也已经表示了早期的承诺。台湾的个人电脑开发商宏碁、智能手机制造商HTC、“只有你说不出来没有我造不出来”的装配商富士康，都知道他们的未来很大程度上取决于他们的自主创造，而不是为了别人加工。曾经被经济损失和管理变动创伤的宏碁，正在通过谷歌Chromebook电脑来努力提高他们目前世界第四的名次，这款电脑包括这个月发布的非同一般大的、有15.6英寸显示屏的型号。HTC正在对付微薄的利润和智能手机全球市场的缩水份额，办法是试验新产品：一款为社交媒体设计的相机，一两款平板电脑，还可能包括一款运动员用的智能腕带——这是HTC与美国体育服装品牌Under Armor的合作关系表明的。可以期待，在苹果公司发布iWatch之后，一次模仿的、台湾制造的可穿戴式设备热潮将在今年晚些时候兴起。正在为了苹果装配合同而努力竞争的富士康，据说正在研发电动车、机器人工具和自己的智能手机，这就看你相信谁说的话了。

Acer's Google Chromebook with a 15.6-inch screen
宏碁的谷歌Chrombook 15.6英寸电脑
3.Taiwanese expect cleaner air, safer food and someday more challenging work.
3、台湾人期待更清洁的空气、更安全的食物和有朝一日更有挑战性的工作。
Taiwanese no longer expect their island to depend wholly on manufacturing, the driver of its half-trillion-dollar economy since the 1960s. They want less pollution and factories that still foul the air or water to pay for it legally. Environmental demands will raise pressure on top Taiwan companies such as Formosa Petrochemical Corp. and Advanced Semiconductor Engineering to price pollution controls into their business plans. They're demanding the stuff they buy, particularly food, be authentic, as shown by the outrage toward a series of scandals involving the suspected tainting or mislabeling of cooking oil under the flag of Ting Hsin International Group. Younger people face new pressure as the education ministry plans to kill off university admission exams that depend solely on rote memorization. That measure would foster talent that thinks outside boxes and welcomes trying risky IT start-ups.
A preference now for safe jobs threatens long-term economic performance. Taiwan, not China as before, is now the best place to incubate young inventors, argues John Chen, senior director and consultant with the Market Intelligence and Consulting Institute in Taipei. Costs are rising in China while material incentives grow locally. "Taiwan's government and enterprises have grants allocated for new start-ups," he says. "Therefore, instead of going to China, the majority of Taiwanese people may rather choose to stay in Taiwan." Expect Taiwan to stiffen laws against companies that pollute, taint or lie to consumers. Expect more favors for inventive university graduates to fuel the next new line of smart gadgetry.
自从20世纪60年代开始，制造业就是台湾高达五千亿美元的经济总量的推动力量，但台湾人不再希望台湾完全依赖制造业了。他们希望更低的污染，希望仍在污染空气与水体的工厂依法付出代价。对于台湾的顶级公司，比如台塑石化公司、日月光半导体公司，环保要求会带来更大压力，让他们将污染控制列入到他们的商业计划中去。台湾人要求他们购买的东西，尤其是食物，必须是真的，就好像在顶新国际集团旗下生产的食用油的疑似污染、贴错标签的一系列丑闻发生时，台湾人对此表现出了愤怒。由于教育部门计划撤除只考死记硬背的大学准入考试，年轻人面对着新的压力。这项措施会培养跳出框架思维的才能，并欢迎尝试高风险的IT创业。当下对稳定工作的偏好威胁到了长期的经济表现。台北的市场情报与咨询研究所的高级助管兼顾问John Chen说，以前是中国，而现在是台湾，才是孵化年轻发明家的最好的地方。中国的花费在升高，而当地的物质激励增长了。他说：“台湾的政府和企业资助新的创业，因此，大部分台湾人会宁愿选择留在台湾，而不是去中国。”可以期待台湾用更强硬的法律来管束污染、不洁或欺骗消费者的公司。可以期待有创意的大学毕业生得到更多支持，来推动智能小玩意的下一条阵线。