Though the Academy Awards won’t be handed out until Feb. 22, Oscar season is already upon us, and The New York Times has appointed a new Bagger — see byline — to navigate this fevered, outrageously expensive annual arms race.
虽然奥斯卡奖要到2月22日才颁发，但是奥斯卡季已经开始，《纽约时报》任命了一个新手——参见作者署名——来为这个极度狂热而又昂贵的年度军备竞赛做导航。
After more than a decade in the very real world of news, covering man-made and environmental perils, including the Iraq war and lots of hurricanes, it’s on to the alien land that is Hollywood.
十多年来，我一直处在非常真实的新闻世界，报道人为和环境危机，包括伊拉克战争和多次飓风，现在我来到好莱坞这片陌生的领地。

Coming in fresh, the new Bagger had one very large question: Are the Oscars really worth all the money, effort and hype?
初来乍到，我这个新手有个非常重要的问题：奥斯卡奖真的值得投入这么多金钱、精力和宣传吗？
The endless parties, the luncheons, the panels, the ads, the screeners, the strategist-driven campaigns, the whispering, the dog-and-pony showings of celebrities in 1-percenter clothes, all of it laser-focused on nabbing a gold statue that the odds are heavily against winning for any given contender: Why, people, why?
没完没了的派对、午宴、座谈会、广告、试映会、战略性宣传、小道消息和名人暴露照片，所有这些都是为了夺取一个小金人，而且对所有参赛者来说胜算都很小：为什么？到底是为什么？
“You’re not talking about rational human agency,” one industry insider said. “A Stockholm syndrome takes over.”
“你谈论的不是理性的人类选择机制，”一位业内人士说，“是斯德哥尔摩综合征在起作用。”
The Bagger put the question to studio heads, directors, actors and producers, some of whom agreed to chat on the record, others off (several confiding that awards season was something they dreaded and loathed).
我又向电影公司主管、导演、演员和制作人们提出这个问题，有些人同意将谈话内容公开发表，有些不同意（有几位坦白地说，颁奖季令他们恐惧、厌恶）。
In an industry unparalleled in its reliance on external validation, there clearly is no bigger stamp of approval than the Academy’s. Independent films, in particular, get a lift. Ego is an obvious motive that people seem to see most clearly in others. Being “part of the conversation,” that much recycled phrase, is a boon in itself: “It’s an honor just to be nominated” may sound clichéd, but garnering a nod truly is a type of win.
这个行业极其依赖外界认可，而奥斯卡奖无疑是最大的认可。尤其是独立电影，它们可以借此提高身价。自尊心显然是一种动机，人们往往在别人身上看得最清楚。成为“谈话的一部分”被多次提及，这本身就是一种恩惠：“能获得提名就是一种荣誉”可能听起来很老套，但获得提名认可真的是一种胜利。
Which raises the question of return on investment: How does all the money that goes into these campaigns — estimates run at more than $100 million for the season — measure against the revenue they supposedly generate?
这就引发了投资回报的问题：本季的宣传投入估计超过一亿美元，它们又产出了多少利益呢？
Right now, in the prenomination phase, money spent on campaigns, particularly those driven by vanity — yep, they’re out there — is a gamble and could be for naught.
目前，在提名前的阶段，在宣传上花的钱，特别是那些为了虚荣做的宣传——是的，确实有这样的宣传——是在赌博，可能徒劳无功。
But landing a nomination means bigger audiences. Jon Kilik, a producer of this year’s “Foxcatcher” whose Oscar-nominated pictures include “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “Dead Man Walking” and “Pollock,” among others, noted that an Academy nod can spotlight art house films that are often extremely hard to get in front of a mainstream audience.
但是获得提名意味着能吸引更多观众。制片人乔恩·基利克(Jon Kilik)曾获得奥斯卡提名的影片包括《潜水钟与蝴蝶》(The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)、《死囚漫步》(Dead Man Walking)和《波洛克》(Pollock)，今年制作的影片是《狐狸猎手》(Foxcatcher)。他指出，奥斯卡提名能使公众注意到一些艺术电影，它们通常很难被呈现到主流观众面前。
More audiences mean more bank, not just in the short term. Marc Shmuger, former chairman of Universal Pictures, said being among the nominated few bestowed a film with a near-everlasting patina.
更多观众意味着更多收入——不只是短期的。环球影业前主席马克·施姆格(Marc Shmuger)说，一部电影要是能跻身少数几部提名影片之列，将具有几近永恒的光彩。
He also proffered the refreshingly noncynical assessment that the awards inspire quality in an industry besotted with the bottom line and prone to churning out big-budget comic-book flicks. “There is an occasion to celebrate when people are aiming high,” he said. “Let’s all applaud that because it deserves support.”
他还提出了这样一个新鲜的、毫不愤世嫉俗的观点：在整个电影行业已经被利润麻痹，倾向于炮制大成本漫画改编影片的情况下，奥斯卡奖的评定能激发电影业注重品质，令人振奋。“它提供了一个机会，来赞美那些追求更高目标的人，”他说，“让我们共同赞美它，因为它值得支持。”
Very nice, right?
说得真好，不是吗？
Back to that bottom line.
我们再回到利润问题上。
Brad Weston, the head of New Regency, which this fall had the acclaimed hits “Gone Girl” and “Birdman,” said “12 Years a Slave,” which his company co-produced, earned $17.5 million after nominations earlier this year, and $6.5 million more after its best picture win. Then the digital and DVD sales hit a year’s projections within the first week.
新摄政娱乐公司(New Regency)今年秋季的热门影片《消失的爱人》(Gone Girl)和《鸟人》(Birdman)受到好评。该公司总裁布拉德·韦斯顿(Brad Weston)说，该公司联合制作的《为奴十二年》(12 Years a Slave)在年初获得提名后赚了1750万美元，在获得最佳影片奖后又赚了650万美元。数字发行和DVD销售在第一周就打破了年度预测。
“Because of the movie’s intensity, let’s call it, a lot of people didn’t see the picture in the theaters,” Mr. Weston said, “but the win validated that it had to be seen.”
“因为该片比较压抑，坦白地说，很多人不会去影院看它，”韦斯顿说，“但是获奖肯定了它的价值，让它成了必看影片。”
Tom Bernard, the co-president of Sony Pictures Classics, known for cultivating small gems, said nominations and eventual wins sent earnings for the 1992 releases “Howards End” and “Indochine,” his company’s first two films, “over the top.” Another example: After the whimsical animated “Triplets of Belleville” landed a best song nomination, its earnings more than tripled, to $7 million.
索尼经典电影公司的联合总裁汤姆·伯纳德(Tom Bernard)以培养低成本精彩影片闻名。他说，该公司1992年发行的头两部影片《霍华德庄园》(Howards End)和《印度支那》(Indochine)获得奥斯卡提名并最终获奖，从而获得了“超乎想像”的收入。另一个例子：异想天开的动画片《疯狂约会美丽都》(Triplets of Belleville)获得最佳原创歌曲奖提名后，它的收入翻了三倍，达到700万美元。
“Oscars are something that bring awareness that money can’t buy,” Mr. Bernard said. “It’s credibility for an indie film to be in the race.”
“奥斯卡奖带来的知名度是钱买不来的，”伯纳德说，“它的公信力使独立电影具有成功的可能。”
The numbers go on. “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008), an outsider film with no known stars, earned more than a third of its box office take after the nominations, and another 30 percent after the win, said Stephen Gilula, co-president of Fox Searchlight Pictures. “The Last King of Scotland” (2006), about Idi Amin — hardly audience catnip — had little traction until the nominations: After its star, Forest Whitaker, received a best actor nod (he would win), it went on to earn over two-thirds of its total revenue.
这样的例子数不胜数。福克斯探照灯影业的联合总裁斯蒂芬·吉鲁拉(Stephen Gilula)说，《贫民窟的百万富翁》(Slumdog Millionaire, 2008)没有大明星参演，本来没有成功的希望，但是获得提名后票房增长了三分之一还多，获奖后又增长了30%。关于伊迪·阿明(Idi Amin)的影片《末代独裁》(The Last King of Scotland, 2006)对观众几乎没有任何吸引力，获得提名前几乎没有任何票房号召力。主演福雷斯特·惠特克(Forest Whitaker)获得最佳男主角奖提名后（他后来获得了该奖），该片又进账超过三分之二。
There’s also the catapult effect on individual careers: After Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova won for original song in “Once” (2007), they saw that film made into a Broadway hit, which used their song and won eight Tony Awards.
奥斯卡奖对个人事业还有快速推动作用。格伦·汉塞德(Glen Hansard)和马尔凯塔·伊尔格洛娃(Marketa Irglova)凭借《曾经》(Once, 2007)获得奥斯卡最佳原创歌曲奖，这部电影被改编成百老汇热门音乐剧，该剧采用他们的歌曲，获得了八项托尼奖。
(Of course, a win brings with it no career guarantee, though Entertainment Weekly has suggested that the myth that winning a best supporting actress Oscar is a career ender turns out to be just that, a myth).
（当然，获奖不一定能确保事业成功，不过，《娱乐周刊》[Entertainment Weekly]称，事实证明，获得奥斯卡最佳女配角奖意味着事业终结这个神话只是故弄玄虚。）
Fox Searchlight bought “Crazy Heart” in late August 2009 and rushed to release it that December after executives accurately gauged warm, fuzzy Hollywood sentiment toward Jeff Bridges, who went on to win best actor.
2009年，福克斯探照灯影业的主管们准确觉察到好莱坞对杰夫·布里吉斯(Jeff Bridges)的好感，8月底买下《疯狂的心》(Crazy Heart)，12月匆忙发行。布里吉斯后来获得了最佳男主角奖。
“Jeff is beloved in the industry, and it reminded everyone why,” Mr. Gilula said. Mr. Bridges also saw a career lift: He went on to make the Coen Brothers’ smash “True Grit.”
“杰夫在业内深受喜爱，让所有人开始思考原因是什么，”吉鲁拉说。布里吉斯的事业也因此得到提升，后来主演了科恩兄弟(Coen Brothers)的杰作《大地惊雷》(True Grit)。
Riding the awards season buzz is a key part of release date strategies — a studio can promote to general audiences and Oscar voters at once — which is why so many films come out at year’s end. David Glasser, chief operating officer and president of the Weinstein Company (the Bagger tried to get Harvey, too; the company demurred), described the fall sweet spot: “We’ve always had a magic November date for the right picture,” he said.
借助颁奖季的喧闹是选择上映时间的一个重要策略，电影公司可以同时向普通观众和奥斯卡投票人做宣传，这就是很多电影在年底上映的原因。温斯坦公司(Weinstein Company)的首席运营官、总裁大卫·格拉瑟（David Glasser，我本来也打算采访哈维[Harvey]，但是被该公司拒绝了）说秋季是最佳上映时间，“我们总是在11月为最好的影片选择一个极佳上映日期”。
The Weinstein film “The Artist,” which would win best picture, was released in late November 2011. The Weinsteins’ big horse in this year’s race, “The Imitation Game,” opened on Friday, two months after winning the Toronto International Film Festival’s audience award, and doubtlessly riding that awards momentum. “A great way to start a campaign, getting that stamp right off the bat,” Mr. Glasser said.
温斯坦公司的《艺术家》(The Artist)在2011年11月底上映，后来获得了最佳影片奖。温斯坦公司今年参赛的重头戏《模仿游戏》(The Imitation Game)周五上映，显然是想借助颁奖季的势头。该片两个月前获得了多伦多国际电影节的观众选择奖。“能这样开始宣传真是太好了，可以马上利用那个奖项的影响力，”格拉瑟说。
Away from Hollywood’s glare, the nominations can have arguably more resonant effects.
除了好莱坞的注目，获得提名无疑能引起更多共鸣效应。
Within days of the nomination of “The Act of Killing” (2013), a surreal, grisly documentary about Indonesia’s slaughter of suspected Communists in the 1960s, the country’s leaders took the unprecedented step of admitting that something terrible had taken place.
《杀戮演绎》(The Act of Killing, 2013)是一部离奇、可怕的记录片，讲述20世纪60年代印度尼西亚对疑似共产党员的屠杀。该片获得提名几天后，该国领导人史无前例地承认，的确发生过一些可怕的事情。
“The government finally acknowledged that the genocide was wrong,” said the film’s director, Joshua Oppenheimer. “It was the first time they’d ever done that. Until then they said, ‘It’s something to be celebrated.’ ”
“该国政府最终承认，那些屠杀是错误的，”该片导演约书亚·奥本海默(Joshua Oppenheimer)说，“那是他们第一次这样说。之前他们总是说， ‘那是值得称赞的事。’”
Of course, for every win, there is a minimum of four losers, with Oscar night bringing a plethora of bruised feelings worsened by the exhausting, marathon-like campaigns. Not to mention the inherently demeaning blow of having your film lose a subjective race that pits such vastly different productions against one another: A showdown involving “Gravity,” “American Hustle” and “12 Years a Slave” is akin to forcing a best picture selection among a Miró, a Pollock and a Monet.
当然，每个获胜者背后至少有四个失败者。令人精疲力尽的马拉松式宣传更加剧了奥斯卡颁奖之夜的伤痛。更何况，它是把各种迥然不同的作品放在一起比较，具有很大的主观性，这样的失败本身就具有侮辱性打击。让《地心引力》(Gravity)、《美国骗局》(American Hustle)和《为奴十二年》一决高下就像是非要在米罗(Miró)、波洛克(Pollock)和莫奈(Monet)的作品中选出一个最佳画作。
“We’ve changed people’s lives, and that’s a wonderful, wonderful thing, but the process is not easy,” Mr. Gilula said. “You have to go in knowing the odds are that you’re not going to win.”
“我们改变了人们的生活，那非常了不起，但是这个过程不容易，”吉鲁拉说，“你必须带着明知自己不一定会获胜的心态去参赛。”
Or, as the actor Edward Norton sagely put it, in a brief chat at the New York Film Festival, “You can’t hang your emotional health on it.”
或者，就像演员爱德华·诺顿(Edward Norton)在纽约电影节上的一次简短交谈中睿智表达的那样，“你不能把自己的情绪健康寄托在这上面。”
There you are, Hollywood. Good luck with that.
我来了，好莱坞。祝大家好运。