The question that hounds every major Chinese film director was asked of Jiang Wen at a news conference earlier this month in Beijing. Mr. Jiang and his business associates had organized the event to generate buzz over the upcoming "Gone with the Bullets," a gangster film set in 1920s Shanghai that is a follow-up to "Let the Bullets Fly," the top earner in the Chinese film industry four years ago.
本月初，姜文和他的商业合作伙伴们在北京举办了一次新闻发布会，为他即将上映的电影《一步之遥》造势。这是一部以20世纪20年代的上海为背景的黑帮片，是四年前位居中国电影票房之冠的《让子弹飞》的续集。在发布会上，姜文被问到一个问题，这个问题困扰过中国的每一位著名导演。
The question, of course, had to do with a certain gold-plated statuette that gets handed out every year on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. A film from mainland China has yet to win one, and Chinese officials are eager for the cultural validation that an Oscar brings.
当然，这个问题与大洋彼岸每年颁发一次的奥斯卡小金人有关。中国大陆的影片从未获得过奥斯卡奖，中国的官员们渴望通过该奖获得文化上的认可。

"As far as I know, for a film to compete for an Oscar, it needs the recommendation of the country's film bureau," Mr. Jiang said at the news conference on Sept. 1, according to Chinese news reports. "You can compete for an Oscar only with that recommendation. I can't decide that. Or should I make the recommendation for them? I'm not sure whether they would mind that."
中国的新闻报道称，9月1日姜文在新闻发布会上说，“据我所知，奥斯卡需要电影所在国的主管部门推荐。电影局要是推荐，你就能去。我可做不了主。我倒是希望推荐，但是他们不一定听我的。”
Mr. Jiang then turned to officials from the national film bureau who were sitting in a front row.
然后姜文把头转向了坐在前排的电影局官员。
"How about just sending us?" he said with some mirth. "Who else could represent China at the Oscars?"Among observers of the Chinese film industry, two other films have been mentioned as possible contenders to be an official Oscar entrant from China this year or next: "Coming Home," directed by Zhang Yimou, arguably the most famous Chinese director; and "Wolf Totem," directed by Jean-Jacques Annaud, a Frenchman. Each year, China's sole entry for the Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film is selected by the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television, which regulates the Chinese film industry.
“要不推荐我们吧？”他笑着说道，“要不谁代表咱们中国去呢？”中国电影业的观察者们提到了另外两部影片，认为它们有可能在今年或明年成为中国官方推荐的奥斯卡参赛影片：一部是中国最著名的导演张艺谋执导的《归来》；另一部是法国导演让-雅克·阿诺(Jean-Jacques Annaud)执导的《狼图腾》。中国每年唯一能参加奥斯卡最佳外语片奖评选的影片是由中国国家新闻出版广电总局挑选的。
Critics of the Chinese film system say the selections are capricious and hobbled by censorship restrictions. Last year, the widely praised "A Touch of Sin," directed by Jia Zhangke, was never allowed by the film bureau to be released in Chinese theaters, presumably because of its depictions of violence and economic disparities in contemporary China. That meant, of course, that China did not submit it as an Oscar entry, and a World War II drama, "Back to 1942," directed by Feng Xiaogang, was chosen instead.
中国电影体系的批评者们称，这样的挑选很随意，而且受到审查制度的限制。去年，贾樟柯导演的《天注定》获得普遍赞扬，但是中国电影当局不允许该片公映，可能是因为它描述了当代中国的暴力事件和经济两极化。当然，这也意味着中国不会推荐该片角逐奥斯卡，而是选中了冯小刚导演的“二战”影片《1942》。
The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences, which awards the Oscars, says that to be eligible for the category of Best Foreign Language Film for the award given in 2015, a film must have been shown for seven consecutive days in a theater between Oct. 1, 2013, and Sept. 30, 2014, and the submission of a single film must be made by Oct. 1, 2014.
颁发奥斯卡奖的美国电影艺术与科学学院规定，2015年奥斯卡最佳外语片奖的参选资格是：必须于2013年10月1日至2014年9月30日期间在影院内连续上映七天，必须在2014年10月1日前提交。
Of the three films mentioned recently as potential contenders, the only one that has been released so far is Mr. Zhang's "Coming Home," which had its worldwide premiere at the Cannes Film Festival last May and features Gong Li, Mr. Zhang's longtime collaborator. Mr. Jiang's film is expected to be formally released in China before the end of this year, and Mr. Annaud's film probably will not be released until early 2015, though there is a chance it could be shown before the new year.
在最近提到的三部可能参选的影片中，目前唯一上映的是张艺谋的《归来》，该片今年5月在戛纳电影节上举办了全球首映，主演是张艺谋的老搭档巩俐。姜文的电影预计今年年底在中国正式上映，阿诺的影片很可能要到2015年初才上映，不过也有可能在新年前上映。
Mr. Zhang has long been a favorite filmmaker of the Communist Party and is known in China as much for directing the opening ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing as for his formidable cinematic oeuvre, which includes "Red Sorghum," "Ju Dou," "Raise the Red Lantern," "To Live" and "Hero." But the Oscar for Best Foreign Film has long eluded Mr. Zhang. His 2011 film, "The Flowers of War," starring Christian Bale as a con man turned reluctant hero in wartime Shanghai, was an official Oscar entry from China, but it got little love from film critics in the United States. In the Oscar race, it did not even make the shortlist of nine films in the Best Foreign Language Film category, from which five nominees are selected.
张艺谋长期以来是中国共产党最青睐的导演，他在中国的名气不仅源于担任2008年北京夏季奥运会开幕式的导演，而且源于他令人惊叹的电影作品，包括《红高粱》、《菊豆》、《大红灯笼高高挂》、《活着》和《英雄》。不过他一直与奥斯卡最佳外语片奖无缘。他2011年的影片《金陵十三钗》是中国官方推荐的奥斯卡参选影片，克里斯蒂安·贝尔(Christian Bale)在片中扮演战时上海的一个骗子，后来变成了一个不情愿的英雄，但是美国的电影评论家们不喜欢这部影片。在奥斯卡角逐中，它甚至没能入选最佳外语片类别的入围名单，入围名单上的九部影片中会产生五部提名影片。
At Cannes this year, a Chinese reporter asked Mr. Zhang about his "Oscar complex."
在今年的戛纳电影节上，一位中国记者在采访张艺谋时问起了他的“奥斯卡情结”。
"If you take a look at all my interviews in the last decade, you'll see that what I have said on this has never changed," he said, according to an article in Guangzhou Daily. "The right to recommend Oscar entries is not in my hand. You have a script and feel it could be a winner, but a year later when you've finished the shooting, how can you ensure that Sapprft will recommend you?"
根据《广州日报》的报道，当时张艺谋说，“你把这十年的访谈拿出来看，这个话题我说的都没变过。奥斯卡的推荐权，不在我手上。你拿了剧本，说这个能得奖，等你拍出来，第二年了，你怎么肯定广电总局就推荐你？”
"There is only one chance — that is you finish it well, then luck strikes and you are recommended," he said. "Then luck strikes again, and five out of nine, you're among the Oscar finalists. Then only when luck strikes again can you win. You need three lucky strikes in a row."
他说：“只有一种可能，就是你拍完了觉得不错，然后运气很好，你被推荐了，然后你运气更好，九进五，你进了名单，运气再好，你才能拿，你这是要连中三元啊。”

"Coming Home" is a love story set in the aftermath of the Cultural Revolution, as a husband and wife try to rekindle their relationship after a long separation and the emotional trauma of one of modern China's darkest periods, one that is often addressed only obliquely in historical material by the Chinese Communist Party.
《归来》讲述的是“文革”后的一个爱情故事。一对夫妻在现代中国最黑暗的一段时期长期分离，情感遭受创伤，“文革”结束后想要重续前缘。“文革”通常只在中国共产党的历史资料中被隐晦提及。
In an email interview, Shelly Kraicer, a film critic and festival programmer who until recently lived in Beijing, said the view of history reflected in Mr. Zhang's latest film conformed with official norms, and so the film could well get the Oscar nod from the film bureau.
电影评论家、电影节策划人谢枫(Shelly Kraicer)在邮件采访中说，张艺谋最新影片中体现的历史观与中国官方的基调一致，所以该片很有可能获得电影局推荐申报奥斯卡奖。谢枫曾在北京居住，前不久才离开。
"Given Zhang's film's obvious consonance with the CCP's current line — history is something to be celebrated when it reflects on the glory of the party, but is something to be ignored and buried to the extent that it questions the CCP's legitimacy — and also given Zhang's (distressingly long-legged) continuing reputation in the West as one of China's prime name-brand cultural exports, I wouldn't be at all surprised if ‘Coming Home' ends up being China's official Oscar entry," Mr. Kraicer said.
“张艺谋的电影明显与中共目前的路线一致——歌颂中共辉煌历史的要多宣传，质疑中共正当性的要忽视和掩藏——而且张艺谋在西方的长久声誉（长得让人有点忧虑）是中国最重要的文化出口品牌，所以如果《归来》最后成为中国官方推荐的奥斯卡参赛影片，我一点也不会感到意外，”谢枫说。
Another prestigious film whose producers are aiming to capture a wide international audience is "Wolf Totem," based on a popular contemporary novel by Lü Jiamin, who writes under the name of Jiang Rong. The novel is a commentary on the settled nature of Chinese civilization and its weaknesses, in contrast to the robust culture of nomads roaming the vast Asian steppes. The protagonist is an ethnic Han intellectual who lives among Mongolian herders in the northern grasslands during the Cultural Revolution.
另一部呼声很高的影片是《狼图腾》，该片的制作人们意在吸引国际观众。它是根据姜戎（原名吕嘉民）的当代同名畅销小说改编的。这部小说把中华文明与游荡在广阔亚洲草原上的游牧民族的强悍文化进行对比，讲述了中华文明的固有本质与弱点。主人公是“文革”时期与蒙古族牧民一起生活在北方草原上的一位汉族知识分子。
A main backer of the project is China Film Group, the largest state film production and distribution enterprise. The choice of Mr. Annaud as director was an interesting one, given that he had previously directed "Seven Years in Tibet," which portrays the friendship between an Austrian climber, Heinrich Harrer, and the 14th Dalai Lama, who fled Tibet in 1959 due to the Chinese occupation.
这部影片的一个主要投资方是中国最大的国营电影制作和发行公司——中国电影集团。选择阿诺担任导演的决定很有意思，因为他之前导演过《西藏七年》，这部影片讲述的是奥地利登山运动员海因里希·哈勒(Heinrich Harrer)和十四世达赖喇嘛之间的友谊，后者在1959年中国政府实际控制西藏后逃离了那里。
Mr. Annaud and other people involved in the film held a news conference in Beijing on Aug. 29. No date has been announced for the film's release, though La Peikang, chairman of China Film Group, said at the news conference that it might not happen until early 2015, around the Lunar New Year. Depending on release dates, "Wolf Totem" could end up vying with "Gone with the Bullets" to be China's Oscar entry next year.
8月29日，阿诺和该片的其他工作人员在北京举办了一个新闻发布会。该片的上映日期尚未公布，不过中国电影集团董事长喇培康在发布会上说，该片可能会在2015年初春节前后上映。从上映日期看，《狼图腾》可能会和《一步之遥》竞争明年的奥斯卡选送影片。
"I think there is a big possibility that this film will bid for the Oscar next year," Mr. La said, according to a report in Guangzhou Daily. "The rules state that each country can send only one film, and in China that final selection is made by the film bureau. Which film will it pick in the end? I don't know, but I am hopeful about ‘Wolf Totem.' And since ‘Wolf Totem' is a joint production by China and France, it could represent not just China but also France in vying for the Oscar. That is to say, ‘Wolf Totem' has two chances to go to the Oscars."
据《广州日报》的报道，喇培康说，“我认为这部影片很有可能申报明年的奥斯卡。但根据规定，一个国家只能申报一部。在中国，具体申报的影片是由电影局决定的。最终电影局会选择哪一部，现在我没法回答。但是我觉得《狼图腾》是很有希望的。因为《狼图腾》是中法合拍片，所以不仅可以代表中国选送奥斯卡，也可以代表法国。也就是说《狼图腾》有两个报送奥斯卡的可能性。”
The film has a built-in audience in China since the book has sold five million copies there, and perhaps double that if counting pirated copies. Total book sales outside of China are in the six figures.
可以预见该片在中国会有庞大的观众群，因为这本小说在中国销售了500万册，如果把盗版书也算进去的话，这个数字可能还会翻倍。这本小说在国外的销量也达数百万册。
"My own sense is that the film is likely to do very well in China, based on the popularity of the book," said Jo Lusby, managing director of Penguin Books China, which has foreign rights to the novel. "For all concerned in the movie — the local film company, the publishers, the author — the main priority though was to make a movie that would cross over and become a mainstream success internationally."
“我个人感觉这部电影很可能会在中国大卖，因为原著小说很畅销，”企鹅（北京）咨询有限公司的董事总经理周海伦(Jo Lusby)说。该公司拥有这本小说的海外版权。“对于当地电影公司、出版社和作者等所有和这部电影有关的方面来说，最重要的是拍摄一部能够跨越大洋、在国际主流世界获得成功的影片。”
Despite the movie's potential global appeal, Isabelle Glachant, a French producer who works in China, said she would be surprised if Chinese film officials selected "Wolf Totem" to be the official Oscar entry, since "many countries only propose films that have been directed by their national directors."
尽管这部电影有可能吸引国际观众，但是在中国工作的法国电影制片人伊莎(Isabelle Glachant)说，如果中国电影局选择《狼图腾》作为官方推荐的奥斯卡参赛影片，她会感到意外，因为“很多国家只推荐本国导演执导的影片”。
"Knowing how China decides on their submission, somehow I doubt that they will ask a French director to represent China," she said.
“我知道中国是怎样决定选送影片的，但是不知怎么，我猜他们不会让一个法国导演去代表中国，”她说。
Weighing the chances of Mr. Zhang and Mr. Jiang, Ms. Glachant said she believed Mr. Zhang was a more probable choice, since Mr. Jiang's "Let the Bullets Fly" was "a big political question mark for the authorities," given the many ways in which viewers interpreted the film, an allegory set in pre-Communist China. She also pointed out that Mr. Jiang had been "banned from acting and directing at a point of his career," referring to his fate after he presented his second feature film, "Devils on the Doorstep," at Cannes in 2000 without official permission. The film, a farce about a Chinese village during the closing days of World War II, won the Grand Jury Prize there.
在估量张艺谋和姜文的入选机会时，伊莎女士认为张艺谋的机会更大，因为姜文的《让子弹飞》“对当局来说是个巨大的政治问号”，因为该片是一个寓言故事，以共产党统治之前的中国为背景，观众用很多方式来解读它。她还指出姜文“一度被禁止进行表演和导演”——她指的是2000年，他未经官方许可在戛纳电影节上展映自己的第二部长片《鬼子来了》之后的遭遇。《鬼子来了》讲述的是“二战”末期一个中国农村的闹剧，获得了戛纳电影节评审团大奖。