Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. Tuesday disclosed long-awaited plans for what could be the world's largest initial public offering. Now investors must decide whether to buy the stock.
阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.)周二披露了外界期待已久的首次公开募股(IPO)计划，这有望成为全球最大规模的IPO。眼下投资者必须作出决定，是否购买这只股票。
It will be costly. Analysts say Alibaba could be valued at $150 billion to $250 billion. The smaller number would make it as valuable as Facebook Inc. The bigger number would put it on par with Wal-Mart Stores Inc.
购买阿里巴巴的股票将代价不菲。分析师们表示，阿里巴巴的估值可能在1,500亿-2,500亿美元之间。如果是1,500亿美元，将与Facebook Inc.的市值相当。如果是2,500亿美元，将与沃尔玛连锁公司(Wal-Mart Stores Inc.)市值持平。
That may still be a good deal, given Alibaba's size, profitability and growth prospects. The company is by far the world's largest online marketplace, with 231 million active buyers annually. In 2013, roughly $248 billion of merchandise moved through its sites. That's one-third more than the combined transaction volume on Amazon.com Inc. and eBay Inc., according to Forrester Research.
但是考虑到阿里巴巴的规模、盈利能力和增长前景，这或许仍是一笔不错的投资。阿里巴巴目前是全球最大的网上市场，每年的活跃用户达到2.31亿。2013年该公司旗下购物网站的商品交易额大约为2,480亿美元。据Forrester Research，这比亚马逊公司(Amazon.com Inc.)和eBay Inc.去年的交易总额还高出了三分之一。
Put simply, investing in Alibaba is a bet on China, and its continued rapid growth. Alibaba dominates Chinese e-commerce, with about 80% of the market last year, according to CLSA Research. Its largest site, Taobao, is a free-for-all bazaar featuring hundreds of millions of goods from eight million merchants. Tmall is a higher-end site with products from the likes of Apple Inc., Nike Inc. and Gap Inc.
简而言之，投资阿里巴巴就是在押注中国以及中国持续快速的经济增长。据CLSA Research，阿里巴巴是中国电子商务市场中的龙头老大，去年的市场占有率大约80%。该公司旗下最大的购物网站淘宝网(Taobao)是一个大市场，任何人都可以在上面开店，该网站有800万家商户，商品数量高达数亿件。该公司旗下的天猫(Tmall)则是一个高端购物网站，提供苹果公司(Apple Inc.)、耐克(Nike Inc.)和Gap Inc.等知名公司的商品。
Alibaba generates revenue from sales commissions and advertising by merchants looking to stand out on its marketplaces. Last year, revenue climbed 62%, to $8 billion. That's roughly as much revenue as Facebook, but Alibaba is growing faster; Facebook grew 55% last year.
阿里巴巴的收入来源是向商户收取佣金和宣传广告费。去年该公司营收增长62%，至80亿美元。这一规模与Facebook基本相当，不过阿里巴巴的增长速度更快。Facebook去年营收增长55%。
But expenses are relatively small, since Alibaba, like eBay, only provides a marketplace for others and doesn't stock inventory itself. As a result, for every $1 of revenue, Alibaba retains 50 cents as operating profit. That's more than the 37% operating margin at Facebook, and nearly twice the 28% at Google, both considered extraordinarily high for a big U.S. company.
阿里巴巴支出规模相对较小，因为与eBay一样，阿里巴巴只提供市场平台，自身不建立库存。因此，每获得一美元营收，其中50美分可以成为阿里巴巴的营运利润。相比之下，Facebook和谷歌(Google)的营运利润率分别为37%和28%，对大型美国企业而言，两者的营运利润率已经算相当高的水平。
Moreover, operating-profit margin has been growing, more than doubling from 20% in 2011. The higher profits for each additional dollar of revenue show how Alibaba is reaping the benefits of its dominant position in Chinese online shopping.
而且，阿里巴巴的营运利润率还在一直上升，相比于2011年的20%已提高超过一倍。这种每多增加1美元收入所获得的利润较高的情况显示出，阿里巴巴正得益于其在中国网络购物领域的主导地位。
And Alibaba appears to have extraordinary growth prospects, which for many investors will justify paying more for $1 of today's profits. China's economy is growing three times as fast as the U.S.'s. A smaller percentage of Chinese are online, 46% compared with the U.S.'s 82%. And the Chinese have fewer retail options, pushing many to shop online.
此外，阿里巴巴似乎还拥有非凡的增长潜力，这为投资者买入该股提供了依据。中国经济增速是美国的三倍。中国上网人口比例还只有46%，而美国为82%。中国人的零售选择也较少，这促使许多人网上购物。
The excitement--and the potential--make it likely investors will have to pay up. Bernstein & Co. analyst Carlos Kirjner says the company is worth up to $250 billion. That's about 70 times last year's profit; Google trades at about 30 times last year's profit.
阿里巴巴良好的业绩以及潜力意味着投资者可能将不得不花更多钱才能买到该股。Bernstein & Co.分析师柯基纳(Carlos Kirjner)表示，阿里巴巴的估值可能高达2,500亿美元。这大致相当于该公司去年利润的70倍。谷歌当前的市值为去年利润的30倍左右。
Investors who tend to care more about future profits might consider this math: Even if Alibaba's revenue grows 45% annually through 2015 and its net profit margin expands by one-fifth, Mr. Kirjner's estimated valuation would be nearly 30 times 2015 profits. By comparison, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is trading at about 14 times 2015 earnings.
更关注未来利润的投资者可能要做一下算术：即使一直到2015年阿里巴巴的收入都保持45%的年增长率， 利润率提升五分之一，柯基纳的估值也接近2015年利润的30倍。相比之下，标准普尔500指数成份股估值与2015年预期收益之比约为14倍。
Many U.S. investors will wind up owning a piece of Alibaba without investing directly, through mutual funds that are likely to buy into the Chinese company. Shareholders of Yahoo Inc. already own Alibaba, because Yahoo owns 24% of the Chinese company, though that investment is set to be reduced at the IPO.
很多美国投资者将持有阿里巴巴股份，并不是通过直接投资，而是通过可能参股阿里巴巴的共同基金。雅虎公司(Yahoo! Inc.)的股东已然持有阿里巴巴股份，因为雅虎公司持有阿里巴巴24%的股份，不过它将在阿里巴巴IPO之际降低持股比例。
There are warning signs, too. Alibaba's momentum could slow as determined rivals clip at its heels. Consumer-electronics specialist JD.com Inc., China's second-largest player in online shopping, has won fans among some middle-class Chinese because it offers delivery, as Amazon does in the U.S. Alibaba is far more profitable than JD.com because it doesn't stock inventory itself and works with outside delivery services. But JD.com could pressure the company to invest more in improving customer service.
目前也存在一些预警信号。由于意志坚决的竞争对手紧追不舍，阿里巴巴的发展动能可能减弱。中国第二大电子商务公司、主营消费电子产品的京东(JD.com Inc.)受到一些中国中产阶级的青睐，因其配送迅速，就像美国市场的亚马逊。阿里巴巴的盈利能力远远好于京东，因为它自身没有库存，而且与外部配送服务合作。但如果京东进一步投资改善消费者服务，就可能令阿里巴巴承压。
A bigger competitive threat is Chinese social-networking giant Tencent Holdings Ltd., owner of the popular WeChat messaging service. Tencent is expanding its e-commerce business through WeChat and the popular online-payments platform Tenpay, which competes with Alibaba's affiliated Paypal-like service, Alipay.
另一个更大的威胁来自中国社交网络巨头腾讯控股有限公司(Tencent Holdings Ltd., 简称：腾讯控股)，它是十分流行的微信(WeChat)通信工具的所有者。腾讯控股正在通过微信和网上支付平台财付通(Tenpay)扩张电子商务业务，财付通与阿里巴巴的支付宝(Alipay)相互竞争。
The combination makes Tencent a particular threat on smartphones. A January survey of merchants by RedTech Advisors showed that nearly one-third of Alibaba merchants have opened up a store on WeChat, which is offering commission-free transactions to win them over. In March, Tencent agreed to buy a 15% stake in JD.com. Alibaba's Taobao app is very popular on smartphones, but its own messaging app trails far behind WeChat.
这一组合令腾讯成为智能手机的一大威胁。研究咨询机构上海睿析科技(RedTech Advisors)今年1月份对商户进行的一次调查显示，阿里巴巴将近三分之一的商户已经在微信开店，微信正在提供免佣金交易，想用这种方式把商户拉过来。今年3月份，腾讯同意收购京东15%的股权。阿里巴巴的淘宝应用程序在智能手机上非常流行，但阿里巴巴的即时通讯应用则大大落后于微信。
RedTech's survey also suggested merchants are grumbling about the high price of Alibaba advertising. That could hamper Alibaba's ability to raise advertising fees and profit margins.
RedTech的调查还表明，阿里巴巴广告收费太高让商户们抱怨不已。这有可能打击阿里巴巴提高广告费用及利润率的能力。
Another concern is Alibaba's corporate governance. Alibaba chose to list in New York in part because Hong Kong regulations would have made it hard to keep its partnership structure, under which founder Jack Ma and some other senior executives can nominate more than half of the board directors, even though the partners' combined stake in the company is only about 10%.
另一个问题是阿里巴巴的公司治理。阿里巴巴选择在纽约上市，原因之一是香港的监管规则是其保留合伙人结构的一大障碍。在这种结构下，阿里巴巴的创始人马云和一些高管可以提名半数以上的董事会成员，尽管这些合伙人的股权加在一起只占总股权的10%左右。
In 2011, Alibaba transferred ownership of Alipay to an outside company under Mr. Ma's control. The move jolted shares of Yahoo, which owns a 24% stake in Alibaba and claimed it didn't know of the move. The companies resolved their difference with an agreement that limits Yahoo's gains on increases in Alipay's value. People familiar with the matter say a new direct ownership agreement is under discussion between Alibaba and Alipay.
2011年，阿里巴巴把支付宝的所有权转移到了马云控制的一个外部公司。这一举动打击了雅虎的股价，雅虎声称不知道这一举动。雅虎拥有阿里巴巴24%的股权。最终，阿里巴巴和雅虎通过签署协议限制雅虎享受支付宝增值利益的方式解决了分歧。知情人士说，阿里巴巴和支付宝正在进行磋商，想让阿里巴巴重新直接拥有支付宝。
Meanwhile, the driving force behind all of this, China's economic miracle, faces its own doubts as critics say growth has been sustained by an investment bubble that could burst.
与此同时，人们对这一切背后的推动力量──中国的经济奇迹也存有疑虑，有批评人士说，一直以来增长都是靠投资泡沫来维持的，而这个泡沫可能会破裂。