In a sign of the tensions roiling global markets, Japan's third-biggest fund manager has abruptly slashed its stance on global equities to neutral from overweight for the first time since 2011.
日本第三大基金管理机构日兴资产管理有限公司(Nikko Asset Management Co.)意外将全球股市评级从增持降至中性，这是该公司2011年以来首次做这样的调整，表明紧张局势给全球市场带来拖累。
Nikko Asset Management, which has more than $160 billion under management, described its sudden decision--taken at an ad-hoc meeting on Monday--as 'extremely rare.' It was based on rising geopolitical risk surrounding Ukraine, slowing economic growth in China, and 'elevated' U.S. equity valuations. It plans to make a final decision on its investment stance on March 27.
日兴资产管理旗下管理超过1,600亿美元的资产。该公司在周一举行的一个特别会议上宣布了上述令人意外的决定。该公司表示，做出这样的决定是“非常罕见的”。该决定是基于以下几个因素做出的：围绕乌克兰的地缘政治风险上升；中国经济增速放缓；美国股市的估值处于高位。该公司计划在3月27日就其投资立场做最后决定。
In what may be the tip of the iceberg, China saw the first default in its fledging corporate bond market last Friday. Chinese residential property prices and the risk of so-called 'shadow banking' defaults are another risk cited by Nikko AM. China's average new-home price in 70 capital cities slowed in January, in the strongest sign yet of a cooldown in the country's property sector. That followed indications from China's banks and developers that lenders are treating the sector with increasing caution amid worries about possible bad loans.
上周五，中国尚处于发展初期的公司债市场出现首个违约案例，这可能只是冰山的一角。日兴资产管理认为，中国住宅地产价格以及“银子银行”的违约风险是全球股市面临的另外一个风险。中国1月份70个大中城市住宅平均价格涨幅放缓，这是目前表明中国房地产行业正在降温的一个最为有力的迹象。此前来自中国的银行以及开发商的迹象显示，出于对出现坏账可能性的担忧，银行正在愈发谨慎地对待房地产行业。
Over the weekend, China's February inflation and international trade data undershot expectations. Nikko AM isn't predicting a hard landing, but it does expect China's economic growth to 'moderately disappoint.'
上周末公布的数据显示，中国2月份通过膨胀数据和国际贸易贸易数据均不及预期。日兴资产管理表示，公司预计中国经济不会出现硬着陆，但预计经济增速会较为令人失望。
Meanwhile, a strong rise in U.S. equity prices over the past year is another concern for the fund manager, particularly in light of high valuations and the prospect that earnings growth will be hampered by recent bad weather.
与此同时，美国股市在过去一年强劲上涨是日兴资产管理担心的另外一个问题，尤其是考虑到估值高企、公司业绩增长将受到近期糟糕天气影响的情况下。
The big swing factor, though, is Ukraine. Nikko AM sees a stalemate as the most likely outcome, given Europe's need for energy supplies from Russia.
然而一个很大的不确定因素是乌克兰。日兴资产管理认为，由于欧洲需要来自俄罗斯的能源供应，因此最可能的结果是出现僵局。
'There is always the chance, however, that the local populations begin to fight with each other, which would escalate geopolitical tensions greatly,' the fund manager warns.
然而该公司警告称，当地民众可能会开始互相斗争，这种可能性总是存在的，这样会大大加剧地缘政治的紧张局势。
Nikko AM's sell down likely included selling the world's biggest mining company, BHP Billiton, which dived 4.1% on Monday. The world's second- and fourth-biggest iron-ore miners, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals also tumbled 5.8% and 9.4%, respectively. Perhaps a bigger alarm bell for risk trades, though, was the spot-iron ore price tumble on Monday--down 8.3% to a 17-month low of US$104.70.
日兴资产管理的抛售对象可能会包括全球最大的采矿公司必和必拓(BHP Billiton)，后者股价周一跌4.1%。全球第二大和第四大铁矿石开采公司力拓(Rio Tinto)和Fortescue Metals也分别跌5.8%和9.4%。然而对于风险交易来说,更大的一个警讯是现货铁矿石价格周一大跌8.3%，至104.70美元，为17个月低点。