Fund managers are gloomier about emerging markets than for many years after last week’s currency rout from Argentina to Russia.
基金经理目前对新兴市场的看法是多年来最悲观的。上周从阿根廷到俄罗斯等国的货币汇率暴跌。
The immediate problems in Argentina on top of the under­lying concerns about the slowdown in Chinese economic growth and the impact of US monetary tapering have left managers worried that the emerging markets sell-off could accelerate.
除了对于中国经济增长放缓以及美国缩减量化宽松的根本担忧外，阿根廷面临的迫在眉睫的问题导致基金经理担心，对新兴市场资产的抛售将会加快。
“Be afraid. China is trying to hit unsustainably high GDP growth rates by generating ­bigger and bigger credit and investment bubbles. Its economy is becoming progressively unhinged, and it’s hard to see how it won’t end badly,” said Mike Riddell, a bond fund manager at M&G Investments who is shorting the Brazilian, South African and Turkish currencies.
M&G Investments的债券基金经理迈克•里德尔(Mike Riddell)表示：“市场有理由感到害怕。中国正试图通过制造越来越大的信贷和投资泡沫来实现不可持续的高GDP增长率。中国经济正在变得越来越失控，很难相信中国经济最终不会出现问题。”里德尔现已开始做空巴西、南非以及土耳其等国货币。
“Emerging market equities have been a big disappointment for some time and going into 2014 we see a degree of pessimism about the asset class that we haven’t seen for many years,” said Richard Titherington, CIO of emerging market equities at JPMorgan Asset Management. “The big risk in 2014 in emerging markets is currencies and how they react to the macro environment.”
摩根大通资产管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)新兴市场股票部门的首席投资官理查德•蒂瑟林顿(Richard Titherington)表示：“新兴市场股市的表现令人大失所望已有一段时间。进入2014年以来，我们看到市场对于这类资产的悲观情绪达到了多年未见的程度。新兴市场2014年的主要风险是货币汇率走势，以及它们如何对宏观环境作出反应。”
Last week’s rout saw the Argentine peso tumble 15 per cent against the dollar, the South African rand and Russian rouble hit five-year lows, and the MSCI Emerging Markets stock index extend its losses so far this year to 5.3 per cent.
上周阿根廷比索兑美元汇率暴跌了15%，而南非兰特以及俄罗斯卢布均跌至五年低点，而摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场(MSCI Emerging Markets)股票指数今年迄今的下跌幅度扩大到了5.3%。
Michael Howell, managing director of London’s Cross­Border Capital, said: “The outlook remains poor as far as we see it. In contrast to 15 years ago, most emerging market economies are now dependent on the Chinese economy rather than on the currently more dynamic US economy.”
伦敦Cross­Border Capital的执行董事迈克尔•豪厄尔(Michael Howell)表示：“在我们看来，新兴市场的前景仍很暗淡。相对于15年前，现在绝大多数新兴市场经济体主要依赖于中国经济，而非目前更具活力的美国经济。”
Investors are “apprehensive” about emerging markets’ ability to cope with reduced liquidity, according to Mark Konyn,
香港国泰康利资产管理有限公司(CCAM)的首席执行官康礼贤(Mark Konyn)表示，投资者对于新兴市场应对流动性萎缩的能力感到“忧心忡忡”。