When Li Ka-shing – one of one of the world’s most successful asset traders – sells anything, the question is always why. For Hong Kong Electric, the first of two big spin-offs expected from Mr Li this year, the answer looks simple at first glance. The sale will help fund juicier investments at Power Assets Holdings, HK Electric’s parent, whose businesses range from keeping the lights on in southern Australia to distributing electricity to the London Underground. But the smarter question is: why now?
李嘉诚(Li Ka-shing)是全球范围内在资产买卖方面最成功的商人之一，每当他出售任何一项资产时，人们总要问个为什么。外界预计，他今年将实施两宗大型分拆案，第一宗涉及的是香港电灯有限公司（Hong Kong Electric，简称港灯）。乍一看，分拆理由很简单：出售港灯能为其母公司电能实业有限公司（Power Assets Holdings，简称电能实业）筹集资金，用于回报更丰厚的投资。电能实业的业务广泛，从为澳大利亚南部供电到为伦敦地铁配电等。但更聪明的问题是：为什么是现在？
Mr Li is creating a business trust for between 51 and 70 per cent of HK Electric, one of just two utilities supplying the territory. PAH shareholders vote today, but since 39 per cent of the votes belong to Mr Li’s empire, it would seem a done deal. PAH should reap between $2.7bn and $4.8bn, after taking out $2.7bn in loan repayments. That is a decent sum for shopping.
港灯是香港仅有的两家电力公司之一。李嘉诚将以建立商业信托的形式，出售港灯51%-70%的权益。电能实业将于今天召集股东投票，但鉴于李氏帝国握有电能实业39%的股权，投票结果几无悬念。在拿出27亿美元偿还贷款之后，电能实业的收益应在27亿至48亿美元之间，这笔钱应能买到很多东西。
Maybe the timing is as simple as Mr Li’s having his eye on a particular bargain, or that PAH’s international business is now bigger than its home base. There may be a regulatory angle too: direct ownership by the Hong Kong public, not through PAH, would likely make it politically harder to cut HK Electric’s current 9.9 per cent regulated returns when renegotiation looms. Limiting Mr Li’s income is one thing, hurting hard-working Hong Kongers is another.
选在此时出售港灯，理由也许很简单：可能因为李嘉诚已经瞄准了一个价格低廉的收购对象，或是因为电能实业的国际业务如今超过了其本土业务。也可能是出于监管方面的考虑：香港公众直接拥有港灯的股权（而不通过电能实业），使李嘉诚在再议价临近时面临更大的政治阻力，难以降低港灯目前9.9%的受监管回报率。人们或许不反对限制李嘉诚的收入，但损害勤劳的香港民众则是另一回事。
There are also rising interest rates to consider. HK Electric’s planned yield of between 5.5 and 7.3 per cent makes it interesting when electricity utilities around the world are offering an average 4 per cent. But even the highest-yielding equities will suffer if rates ratchet up properly. Hong Kong’s five-year yields have trebled since May . Mr Li is not selling at the absolute top for yieldy investments, but his timing is still good. That leaves investors free to ponder the next question of any Mr Li deal: just what will he use the money for?
利率上升也是需要考虑的因素。目前，世界各国电力公司的平均股息收益率为4%，在此情况下，港灯5.5%-7.3%的预期股息收益率颇具吸引力。但如果利率上升到一定程度，就连收益最高的股票也会蒙受损失。自去年5月以来，香港五年期债券的收益率已升高两倍。李嘉诚没有在投资回报率最高的时候出售，但他现在出售的时机仍然不错。这使投资者不得不思考任何李氏交易都会牵涉的下一个问题：他会把这笔钱用在何处？