China has recently made majordecisions about its economic future. On November 15, 2013, China announceddramatic new social and economic policies contemplating much greater relianceon market forces than it has in the past and inviting private-sectorparticipation and foreign competition in industries long previously controlledby the central government. It also relaxed its one-child policy, openingthe country and its people to vast new opportunities and inspiring new hopes anddreams.
中国最近正在进行大规模的经济改革。 2013年11月15日，中国推出了一系列以市场经济为导向的社会和经济上的改革政策，在一些国有经济中引入了私有经济参与和国际竞争。同时一胎化政策放松，为中国和中国人民带来了更多的机会，激发了希望和梦想。
Xi Jinping and other leadershave made it clear that China is willing to accept a slower growth pace if thiswill allow for a more sustainable, consumer-driven expansion of its economy.Some prognosticators are quick to conclude that China’s economy will soonsignificantly slow down, especially because China’s economy has sputteredfollowing prior instances when the nation’s leaders have effected suchfundamental economic reforms (such as in 1978 and 1993).
习及一些领导人员已经明确指出，中国将会进行可持续发展、内需为依托的经济转型，为此中国可以忍受稍微慢一些的增长速度。于是一些预言家马上就下出结论，认为中国经济会因而立即大幅减速。特别是中国曾经有过这样的先例。在1978到1993年中国领导人进行改革开放，然而在政策施行的最初阶段中国经济曾经遭遇不稳定。
But we at The BostonConsulting Group believe that the current dip in China’s growth will not endureand that, under Xi’s leadership, China’s economy is destined to continuegrowing at a rapid clip. In fact, we are confident last week’s reforms willcontribute mightily to China’s growth between now and 2020. We stand by our base case forecast that China will deliver$4 trillion in growth over the next decade and combine with India to deliver a$10 trillion prize — an economic powerhouse driven by booming middle classconsumption and growing overall optimism. No one can perfectly forecastthe future … and in our book we describe scenarios where growthslows. But we remain optimistic and positive about China’s future.
但是我们波士士顿波士顿咨询集团不认为中国本次改革会导致中国经济不稳定。我们相信中国经济在习主席的领导下会持续高速增长。我们相信上个星期的改革（三中全会）会确保中国经济从现在一直增长到（至少）2020年。根据我们已掌握的资料，我们预测中国经济在未来10年会增加4万亿美金(而书中说是6.4万亿。2012中国GDP为8.3万亿美金)。如果加上印度，亚洲两大国未来的增长总量会达到10万亿美金。在此期间，中产阶级会迅速膨胀，进而增强对经济增长的乐观态度。当然，没有人能完美地预测未来，在我们的近期的一本关于中国和印度经济发展的书中（《Trillion Prize:Captivating the Newly Affluent in China and India》），我们也描述了一些经济增长缓慢的例子。不过总体上我们还是对中国的未来保持乐观态度。
Here are our top 10expectations for China in 2014:
如下是我们对中国2014年的10个预测
1. China’s leadershipwill ignite the capital economy, funding an aggressive growth program withmajor infrastructure investments to support urban development, including hugeallotments for housing, schools, roads, and more.
中国领导人会刺激国有经济。资助更多的扩张性增长项目，比如用以支持城镇化发展的基础建设的投资，包括大量的房屋、学校、公路等方面的建设。
2. The new one childplus policy will substantially raise the birth rate, contributing up to 2million new children to the 2014 economy, a 15 percent one-year lift that willonly further boost consumer morale and spirit.
新的计划生育政策将会一定程度地刺激生育率。2014年将会有2百万新生儿童。这意味着1年就产生了15%的增长，这将会在未来进一步增强消费者信心。
3. The government bothlocal and national will invest in more technology-driven sectors, includingadvanced agriculture, transportation, medicine and other sectors. Thisinitiative will be aimed squarely at improving China’s productivity andmanufacturing competitiveness. There will be a national effort aimed atachieving quality, first-time yield and ensuring “productivity driven” globalcompetitiveness.
中国中央和地方政府会对技术升级方面投入更多的经费。 包括现代化农业、运输、医疗等方面。这些积极的投资将会进一步提高中国生产和制造业的竞争能力。这将是一次国家行为，目的是为了推动提高产品质量和产品合格率以及以提升产品主导的全球竞争力。
4. China will continueefforts to build out C-9 (the top nine universities in China) in the form ofmore than $1 billion new investments in major campuses. Funds will becommitted to attract top faculty, build state-of-the-art facilities, andrecruit the very best students. China will lock into a global war forintelligence, education, and skill.
中国投资10亿美金用以将进一步打造C9大学（中国最好的9所大学）。 经费将会主要用来吸引顶级的教职人员，建造世界一流的教学设施，和招募一流的声源。中国将会国际智力、教育和技能的人才大战中逐鹿。
5. The top 300bureaucrats will rally behind Xi’s reforms and these bold new programs, backingthe central government while bringing these ambitions to their provincialgovernments and setting parallel growth goals at home. Detailed plans forreform and accelerated growth will be set, and then promptly executed, ingeographies across China. We expect the tier three and four markets torally again this year, growing faster than tier one and two cities.
习主席讲会同300名智囊官员一起制定新的改革方案并协同省级政府制定增长目标。关于刺激增长的细节方案将会逐渐制定出来，并在中国迅速执行。我们认为明年中国的三线四线城市的市场增长速度会快于一线二线城市的增长。
6. China will also soonmake further announcements regarding affordable housing and more accessiblehealthcare. The country still needs 75 million more $75,000 housing unitsand it will begin breaking ground on them, in earnest, in 2014. Theseinvestments, particularly in health care, will effectively become self-funded,allowing average Chinese consumers to consider saving less, and spending more. It will drive longevity and years of productive employment.
中国会很快宣布一系列的关于房价调控和医疗保险的措施。在2014年，中国仍然需要建造7500万间超过7万5千美金的房产。这方面的投资，特别是医疗方面，使得普通中国消费者开始进入少存钱多花钱的消费习惯，进而促进内需，最终促进长期的就业增加。
7. Big anti-corruptionprograms will be accelerated. We expect to see increased prosecutions,from approximately 140,000 per annum today to more than 200,000 in 2014. Thisaggressive push for integrity and accountability will set the country on astrong new course. Success will become much more about what you know ratherthan who you know.
反腐力度将会被加强。2014年中国反腐调查案件将会从如今的14万件，增加到超过20万件。这将使得中国更强大。 如果反腐能够成功，将会使中国更关注于做事，而不是搞人事关系。
8. Across the world,China will continue to flex its might with acquisitions and transactions. Theone million Chinese in Africa will continue their efforts to lock up naturalresources.
在全球，中国将会进一步进行并购和交易。在非洲，1百万中国人在努力获取自然资源。
9. The Chinese militarywill demand and receive vastly expanded investments in the form of advancedaircraft and ships.
中国的军队会获得更多的投入，从而增加更为先进的飞机和战舰。
10. China watchers inthe United States will continue to postulate China’s declining growth rate inthe face of evidence that it is stable at over 7%. China will grow fasterin 2014 than in 2013.
我们认为中国2014年的经济成长会高速增加，增速会超过2013。而在美国的“中国问题专家”们，在面对中国稳定的超过7%的年增长率铁据之后，还会坚持唱衰中国的经济。
As China clears the way forfreer markets and increased foreign participation, fortifies the infrastructureof its burgeoning cities, and creates the social conditions for middle classfamilies to grow in size, confidence, and spending power, watch for continuedgrowth in the world’s second biggest economy in 2014 and beyond.
中国正在清除自由市场上的障碍，促进国际参与，并增强了对发展中城市基础建设，改善社会条件并壮大中产阶层，展现信心和国力。基于此，我们认为中国作为世界第二大经济体在2014年之后还会继续高速发展