China's new leaders are counting on urbanization to remake the economy but have tried to limit the flow to the country's largest cities, fearing that a surge in migration could turn them into Latin American-style slums.
中国新一届领导人正在指望城市化能重塑中国经济，但同时又在试图限制流入中国大型城市的人口数量，担心迁移人口激增可能导致这些城市出现拉丁美洲城市那样的贫民窟。
Some urbanization specialists inside and outside China argue that the fear is largely misplaced. The problem with Beijing, Shanghai and other Chinese megacities, they say, is that they aren't even more densely packed─or better planned.
中国境内外部分城市化专家认为，这种担心在很大程度上弄错了方向。在这些专家看来，北京、上海和中国其它大城市的问题在于，这些城市的人口密度还不够大，或者说这些城市的规划还不够好。
Adding more people to Beijing, for example─on top of the 18 million or so who already live here─would encourage better public transportation, boost land prices so high that factories would move away, and attract talented people with fresh ideas, according to these specialists. Imagine, say, Manhattan or Tokyo.
这些专家说，比如在北京现有大约1,800万居住人口的基础上继续增加人口能够鼓励有关方面继续改进公共交通，将土地价格提高到工厂愿意选择搬走的水平，并吸引带有新鲜想法的优秀人才。请试想一下曼哈顿或东京的情形。
'We have to let the market play a bigger role in the development of cities and dismantle barriers' to urban growth, said He Fan, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the government's most prestigious think tank. 'People prefer to move to larger cities because there is more opportunity there.'
中国政府最负盛名的智库中国社会科学院高级经济学家何帆说，在城市发展过程中我们必须让市场发挥更大作用，打破阻碍城市发展的藩篱。他说，人们喜欢迁徙到更大城市，因为那里机会更多。
Angel Gurría, secretary-general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is another big-city booster. 'When you see the situation in the large urban conglomerations, you say, 'Let's stop the growth,' ' he said during an interview in Beijing. 'But you probably don't want to stop the growth [because] a well-organized, predictable process of urbanization allows for a much better allocation of resources.'
经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)秘书长古里亚(Angel Gurria)是大城市战略的另一大推动力量。他在北京接受采访时说，当你看到大城市集群的情况时，你可能会说别再变大了吧，但很可能不应该停止，因为一个组织良好且可以预见的城市化进程会大大提高资源分配的效率。
Urban planners talk about 'agglomeration' effects─the idea that cities gain by having people more tightly packed. That's because travel by car becomes impractical and is replaced by public transportation. Also, old-line industries are forced to relocate because of rising prices, and lightly polluting service industries take their place. The influx of people brings an energy to a city that helps create new businesses and investment.
城市规划者经常谈到“集聚效应”，即加大人口居住密度可以让城市获益。这是因为靠私家车出行变得不切实际，公共交通工具取代了私家车。此外，传统行业由于物价上涨被迫搬迁，污染较轻的服务业取代了它们的位置。涌入城市的人群带来了一种能量，有助于创造新的企业和投资。
In Manhattan, with a density of 18,300 people per square kilometer, about 45% of the working population takes public transportation, for instance, says Jonathan Woetzel, China analyst for McKinsey Global Institute. In Charlotte, N.C., where population density is about 15% of Manhattan's, just 5% of the locals take public transportation. In China, says Mr. Woetzel, only downtown Shanghai approximates the public-transportation ridership of Manhattan.
麦肯锡全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute)中国分析师华强森(Jonathan Woetzel)说，以曼哈顿为例。这里的人口密度为每平方公里18,300人，约45%的工作人口靠公共交通工具通勤。在北卡罗来纳州夏洛特市(Charlotte)，其人口密度大约只有曼哈顿的15%，只有5%的当地人乘坐公共交通工具。华强森说，在中国，只有上海中心城区的公共交通载客量与曼哈顿相当。
While China has some of the world's largest cities, it also has about 160 cities in the 200,000 to 1,000,000 population range. The fear of urban planners is that the government will try to develop them all, leading to a mishmash of highways, industries and pollution.
虽然中国有世界上最大的一些城市，但中国也有大约160座城市的人口在20万至100万人之间。城市规划者的担心是，政府将试图发展所有这些城市，使得道路、工业建设和污染相伴而生。
China's government hasn't bought into the bigger-is-better argument so far, but it is listening to new ideas. The country's new premier, Li Keqiang, who has made urbanization a focus of China's economic reform plans, said the government had received 500 proposals on the subject at a March meeting of the largely ceremonial parliament. China's planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, says it will release a blueprint to guide urban-growth policies later this year.
虽然到目前为止中国政府尚未对这种城市规模越大越好的说法表示认同，但它正在倾听各种新的想法。中国新任总理李克强将城镇化当做了中国经济改革计划的一个重点，他说在今年3月的“两会”期间政府已收到了有关城镇化问题的500项建议。中国的计划部门国家发展和改革委员会说，它今年晚些时候将发布一份蓝图，以指导中国的城市增长政策。
Chinese leaders argue that urbanization is crucial to remake the economy so it relies more on domestic consumption and less on exports, a long-sought goal by China and one its trading partners encourage. Rural migrants make higher salaries in the cities and their departure from the villages can boost incomes back home too, as demand for labor starts to outstrip supply in rural areas.
中国领导人称，城镇化对于中国经济的重新调整有重要作用，这种调整可以使中国经济增加对国内消费的依赖，减少对出口的依赖，这既是中国一直寻求实现的一个目标，也是中国的贸易伙伴所鼓励的。农民进城务工后可以获得更高的收入，而他们离乡外出也可提振其家乡的收入水平，因为农村地区的劳动力需求将开始超过劳动力供给。
'Urbanization will not only spur tremendous consumption and investment demands and create more job opportunities but also directly enrich the farmers,' Mr. Li said during his first news conference as premier.
李克强在其担任总理后首次举行的新闻发布会上说，城镇化不仅可以刺激大量消费和投资需求，并创造更多就业机会，还能直接让农民致富。
How best to manage urban growth is hotly debated. Urban specialists point out that many of China's cities aren't as densely populated as Singapore, Seoul or downtown Tokyo, which have made the transition to the consumer-led service-industry centers that China aspires to. Beijing is seen as especially poorly planned. It has about half of the population density of Seoul and is circled by six ring roads that encourage automobile use and urban sprawl.
管理城市增长的最佳方式是什么成为人们热议的话题。城市专家们指出，中国许多城市的人口密度不及新加坡、首尔或东京城区。而这几座国外城市已经完成了向消费主导的服务业中心的过渡，中国渴望自己的城市也能实现这种过渡。北京市的城市规划工作被认为做得尤其差。北京的人口密度只有首尔的一半左右，它被六条环路层层环绕着，这种布局对人们驾车出行以及城市摊大饼似的向外扩张起了鼓励作用。
In China, more densely populated cities, like cosmopolitan Shanghai and the central transportation hub of Wuhan, produce less pollution per person from cars and trucks than sprawling Beijing, according to the OECD.
经合组织称，中国那些人口密度更大的城市，如国际化大都市上海以及中部交通枢纽武汉，与城区面积广阔的北京相比，这些城市的人均机动车污染物排放量较低。
Much more could be done to make China's largest cities more efficient, including expanding subways. The OECD says China's 10 largest cities have far less extensive rail systems to service downtowns than major cities outside China, though many cities are now in the process of adding subways. But China has long been wary of supersize urban centers for fear of creating slums like those surrounding some Latin American or African centers, or of worsening pollution or spurring centers of political opposition. Since China opened its economy in 1978, officials have tried to control the influx of migrants to coastal export centers by denying migrants the resident permits they need to collect social benefits or get their children into local public schools. Many migrants leave their children at home and eventually return to their villages to live.
在提高中国那些最大城市的效率方面还有很多工作可以做，比如扩建地铁。经合组织说，与国外的大城市相比，中国10个最大城市用于服务城市中心区人口的铁路系统要薄弱得多。不过中国许多城市目前都在增建地铁。但中国一直对超大规模的中心城市心存谨慎，担心这会使中国像一些拉美和非洲国家那样出现中心城市周边贫民窟环绕的现象，害怕这会加重城市污染或催生出一批政治反对势力聚集的中心。自从中国经济1978年对外开放以来，官员们一直在试图控制人口向沿海出口中心流动，政府拒绝给流入沿海城市的人口办理当地户口，而没有当地户口这些人就享受不到其居住地的社会福利，其子女也无法进入当地的公办学校就读。许多农民工都将子女留在家乡，并且他们最终也会返回家乡生活。
Yukon Huang, a former China director for the World Bank, estimates that if such restrictions were eliminated, about 60% of China's population would now live in cities, rather than the current 52.6%.
曾任世界银行(World Bank)中国局局长的黄育川(Yukon Huang)估计，如果以前取消了这类限制，现在中国人口将约有60%生活在城市中，而不是当前的52.6%。
The government appears to continue to balk at a biggest-city approach. While Premier Li says he is in favor of 'coordinated development of large, middle and small cities,' he also warns of 'urban malaise' and the creation of shantytowns in cities 'filled with tall buildings.' Some China scholars note that he uses a Chinese word for urbanization─chengzhenhua─ that suggests giving priority to development of townships and smaller cities, rather than large ones.
政府似乎继续回避超大城市的策略。虽然李克强说他倾向于大、中、小城市协调发展，但他也对城市病和在城市高楼中制造贫民区提出了警告。一些中国学者强调，他使用了“城镇化”这个词，表明要优先发展城镇和小城市，而不是大城市。
Mr. Woetzel, the McKinsey China analyst, says a smaller-city approach can work, particularly if such cities are linked to large, regional hubs. Globally, McKinsey estimates, much of the growth in the coming decades will come from cities with a population of less than 10 million. In China, Mr. Woetzel said, 'the sweet spot is cities of 1.5 million to 5 million people,' which have plenty of room to grow. He says Beijing has enormous power to route people to favored locations through financial credit, subsidy and residence-permit policies.
麦肯锡中国的华强森说，中小城市路线能够行得通，尤其是如果这类城市连接着大规模的地区中心。麦肯锡估计，在全球范围内，未来10年的大部分增长将来自人口不到1,000万的城市。华强森说，中国最理想的地方是人口在150万至500万的城市，这些城市有很大的增长空间。他说，中国政府拥有极大的力量，可以通过金融信贷、补贴以及居住许可政策将人们引导到政府青睐的地方。
But critics warn that such incentives won't work if ordinary Chinese think the new locations are lousy places to live. They point to the emergence of what Chinese call ghost cities─like the much-publicized city of Ordos in Inner Mongolia─places chock-a-block with new apartment houses, boulevards, commercial space, but largely void of residents. Expect more of these ghost cities, they say, if the government chooses wrongly where to build.
但批评人士警告说，如果普通中国民众认为新的地点不适宜居住，这类激励政府就无法发挥作用。他们指出，“鬼城”已经出现，比如得到广泛报道的内蒙古鄂尔多斯市，这些地方满是崭新的公寓楼、宽阔的街道和商业空间，但基本无人居住。他们说，如果政府选错了地方，预计会有更多这样的鬼城。
Mr. He, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences economist, says spending heavily on infrastructure and real estate to build up smaller cities across the country could produce bad debts if the new projects don't pay off. The money would be better spent in the largest cities, he said, to build subways, clean up pollution and pay for social services for new residents.
中国社科院经济学家何帆说，为了在全国各地建设小城市而在基础设施和房地产上花费巨资，如果新的项目不成功，就可能产生坏账。他说，这些钱花在大城市更好，用来修建地铁、治理污染以及用于支付新居民的社会服务成本。
While infrastructure spending on smaller cities could boost growth in the short run, Mr. He said, 'the problem would be a financial crisis down the road.'
何帆说，虽然小城市的基础设施开支在短期内可能提振增长，但问题是将来会出现金融危机。
Another priority, say the critics of Beijing's urbanization policies: abolish the residence-permit system over time, so people can live where they want. Some cities in China's interior would grow naturally, they argue, because housing prices are cheaper there and industries, looking to move away from high-cost coastal regions, are relocating there too.
对中国政府城市化政策持批评意见的人说，另一个政策重点是逐步废除居住许可制度，让人们可以自由选择居住地。他们提出，中国一些内陆城市将会逐步发展，因为那里的房价较低，希望离开高成本沿海地区的工业企业也正向内陆转移。
'You need to let entrepreneurs, ordinary people and businesses decide where they want to move,' said Kam Wing Chan, a China specialist at Washington University.
华盛顿大学(Washington University)中国城市化问题专家陈金永(Kam Wing Chan)说，你得让创业者、普通民众和企业自己决定想去哪里。