Of Vicissitude Of Things
论世界的变迁
SOLOMON saith, There is no new thing upon the earth. So that as Plato had an imagination, That all knowledge was but remembrance; so Solomon giveth his sentence, That all novelty is but oblivion. Whereby you may see, that the river of Lethe runneth as well above ground as below.
所罗门说：“地球上没有新事物”。甚至，柏拉图这样遐想：“一切知识都只是旧事物的记忆”；所罗门也说过几乎同样的话：“一切新事物都只是旧事物的遗忘”。由此可见，“冥河”或“忘川”，不仅存在于地府，而且存在人间。
There is an abstruse astrologer that saith, If it were not for two things that are constant (the one is, that the fixed stars ever stand a like distance one from another, and never come nearer together, nor go further asunder; the other, that the diurnal motion perpetually keepeth time), no individual would last one moment. Certain it is, that the mat-ter is in a perpetual flux, and never at a stay. The great winding-sheets, that bury all things in ob-livion, are two; deluges and earthquakes. As for conflagrations and great droughts, they do not merely dispeople and destroy. Phaeton's car went but a day. And the three years' drought in the time of Elias, was but particular, and left people alive.
世界有两样东西是永恒的：其一、位置固定的星体之间距离永远不变，既不靠近，也不离开；其二、它们每日的运动永远遵守时间。有一位玄妙的星占家就说过：“要是没有两样永恒的事物，那就没有什么个体存在于瞬间”。万物肯定处于永恒的流动中，从不停止。洪水和地震是席卷或埋葬一切事物的两块大的收尸布。至于火灾和大旱，它们并不总是摧毁人类。法厄的车只走一天；而伊利亚时代的三年旱灾是特殊现象，而且还是有人活下来。至于西印度常见的因雷电而引起的大火，烧毁的面积很有限。
但需要进一步指出，在洪水和地震所造成的两种破坏中，劫后余生者通常是无知的山村野民，他们对过去一无所知，遗忘殆尽，那里好像没有留下一个幸存者。
As for the great burnings by lightnings, which are often in the West Indies, they are but narrow. But in the other two destructions, by deluge and earth-quake, it is further to be noted, that the remnant of people which hap to be reserved, are commonly ignorant and mountainous people, that can give no account of the time past; so that the oblivion is all one, as if none had been left. If you consider well of the people of the West Indies, it is very probable that they are a newer or a younger peo-ple, than the people of the Old World. And it is much more likely, that the destruction that hath heretofore been there, was not by earthquakes (as the Egyptian priest told Solon concerning the island of Atlantis, that it was swallowed by an earthquake), but rather that it was desolated by a particular deluge. For earthquakes are seldom in those parts. But on the other side, they have such pouring rivers, as the rivers of Asia and Africk and Europe, are but brooks to them. Their Andes, like-wise, or mountains, are far higher than those with us; whereby it seems, that the remnants of gen-eration of men, were in such a particular deluge saved. As for the observation that Machiavel hath, that the jealousy of sects, doth much extinguish the memory of things; traducing Gregory the Great, that he did what in him lay, to extinguish all heathen antiquities; I do not find that those zeals do any great effects, nor last long; as it ap-peared in the succession of Sabinian, who did revive the former antiquities. The vicissitude of mutations in the superior globe, are no fit matter for this present argument.
如果你研究西印度人，他们很可能比先人进步和年轻。（注7）那里的破坏也不像是由于地震造成，（如埃及祭司对梭伦说的：“大西岛被地震吞没。”）其荒芜的现状更像是由于特大的洪水。因为这些地区很少地震。但另一方面，这些地区有如此浩瀚的水域，非亚洲、非洲和欧洲那样的大江大河可比，后者只如同一条条小溪。安第斯山之类山脉也比我们这里的高得多；看来那一代人的幸存者是靠着这些高山才在如此特殊的洪水中获救。至于马奇维尔的看法，我不敢苟同；他说什么宗派之间的嫉妒导致大量文物的遗忘，甚至污蔑格利葛里教皇尽力毁掉了异教的一切古迹；但我看不出教皇这种宗教狂热能起多大作用，而且也没有维持多久；看来萨比尼安即位后就恢复了这些古迹。天体运动的变化完全不适合在本文讨论。
It may be, Plato's great year, if the world should last so long, would have some effect; not in renew-ing the state of like individuals (for that is the fume of those, that conceive the celestial bodies have more accurate influences upon these things below, than indeed they have), but in gross. Comets, out of question, have likewise power and effect, over the gross and mass of things; but they are rather gazed upon, and waited upon in their journey, than wisely observed in their effects; specially in, their respective effects; that is, what kind of comet, for magnitude, color, version of the beams, plac-ing in the reign of heaven, or lasting, produceth what kind of effects.
如果世界会持续存在很长时间，那么柏拉图的“大年说”可能有所应验——但不是在某些个人身上（因为这些人狂言，天体对他们的外在环境具有明显的影响），而是对整个地球体，慧星对事物的整体与质量无疑具有这种类威力或作用；但人们更多地注视与期待慧星的运行过程，却较少聪明地观察慧星的作用，如何种慧星产生何种作用，特别是慧星的大小、颜色、光线的变化、在天上的位置、持续的时间等有关方面。
There is a toy which I have heard, and I would not have it given over, but waited upon a little. They say it is observed in the Low Countries (I know not in what part) that every five and thirty years, the same kind and suit of years and weath-ers come about again; as great frosts, great wet, great droughts, warm winters, summers with little heat, and the like; and they call it the Prime. It is a thing I do the rather mention, because, comput-ing backwards, I have found some concurrence.
至今还可以听到有人闲聊，但引起了我的注意，他们说低地三国（我不知道是哪一部分）发现这样的情况：每隔三十五年，重来一次同样的年景和天气；如大的冰冻，大的潮湿，大的旱灾，温暖的冬天，不热的夏天，诸如此类；——他们称之为轮回（或译“周而复始”）的“顶点”。我之所以愿意提及此事，是因为我也计算出这种巧合。
But to leave these points of nature, and to come to men. The greatest vicissitude of things amongst men, is the vicissitude of sects and religions. For those orbs rule in men's minds most. The true re-ligion is built upon the rock; the rest are tossed, upon the waves of time. To speak, therefore, of the causes of new sects; and to give some counsel con-cerning them, as far as the weakness of human judgment can give stay, to so great revolutions.
还是离开自然回到人间。宗教及其宗派导致人世间的变迁；因为这些“天体”主宰人心。真正的宗教坚如磐石，其他的宗教风雨飘摇（或直译：真正的宗教建立在礁石上，其他的宗教在时代的风浪里颠簸）。因此，尽管对于这样伟大的变革，人的理智显得单薄无力，但我不揣冒昧，讨论一下新宗教产生的原因，并提出一些相关的建议。
When the religion formerly received, is rent by discords; and when the holiness of the professors of religion, is decayed and full of scandal; and withal the times be stupid, ignorant, and bar-barous; you may doubt the springing up of a new sect; if then also, there should arise any extrava-gant and strange spirit, to make himself author thereof. All which points held, when Mahomet published his law. If a new sect have not two prop-erties, fear it not; for it will not spread. The one is the supplanting, or the opposing, of authority es-tablished; for nothing is more popular than that. The other is the giving license to pleasures, and a voluptuous life. For as for speculative heresies (such as were in ancient times the Arians, and now the Armenians), though they work mightily upon men's wits, yet they do not produce any great al-terations in states; except it be by the help of civil occasions. There be three manner of plantations of new sects. By the power of signs and miracles; by the eloquence, and wisdom, of speech and persua-sion; and by the sword. For martyrdoms, I reckon them amongst miracles; because they seem to ex-ceed the strength of human nature: and I may do the like, of superlative and admirable holiness of life. Surely there is no better way, to stop the rising of new sects and schisms, than to reform abuses; to compound the smaller differences; to proceed mildly, and not with sanguinary persecutions; and rather to take off the principal authors by win-ning and advancing them, than to enrage them by violence and bitterness.
当原来的宗教因争吵而分裂，当教主们（或译“宗教职业家们”）的神圣日益衰落，怪事层出不穷；并且世风日下，人们愚昧、无知、野蛮；——新的宗派就要兴起。这时，某人将发表一种新奇的过激的教义，并自认教主，（原文省略了一句。译者注）。如果新的教派没有如下两个特点，就不用害怕，因为它不能传播。其一、取代或反对原有的权威，因为这最能煽动人心；其二、允许教徒吃喝玩乐，生活放荡。因为异端邪说（原文括号里的一句省略。译者注）虽然能蛊惑人心，却不能给国家造成大乱，除非它借助政治事件。新教派的建立靠三种手段：符咒与奇迹的力量，演讲、说教的口才和智慧，手中的宝剑。我把殉教的行为看成一种奇迹，因为它似乎超出了人性；我把生活至高无尚的圣洁也看成一种奇迹。阻止宗教分裂和新教兴起的最好办法，肯定是改革旧的弊病，调和较小的分歧，温和地前进，而不采取****；此外，宜用争取和提拔教主们的办法收服他们，而不是用暴力和伤痛激怒他们。
The changes and vicissitude in wars are many; but chiefly in three things; in the seats or stages of the war; in the weapons; and in the manner of the conduct. Wars, in ancient time, seemed more to move from east to west; for the Persians, Assyrians, Arabians, Tartars (which were the invaders) were all eastern people. It is true, the Gauls were west-ern; but we read but of two incursions of theirs: the one to Gallo-Grecia, the other to Rome. But east and west have no certain points of heaven; and no more have the wars, either from the east or west, any certainty of observation. But north and south are fixed; and it hath seldom or never been seen that the far southern people have invaded the northern, but contrariwise. Whereby it is manifest that the northern tract of the world, is in nature the more martial region: be it in respect of the stars of that hemisphere; or of the great continents that are upon the north, whereas the south part, for aught that is known, is almost all sea; or (which is most apparent) of the cold of the northern parts, which is that which, without aid of discipline, doth make the bodies hardest, and the courages warmest.
战争对世界变迁的影响是多方面的；但主要在三方面：战场和战区，武器的变化，战争进行的方式。在古代，战争看来多从东往西进行，因为波斯人、亚述人、阿拉伯人、鞑靼人（他们是侵略者）都是东方人。的确，高卢人是西方人，但我们只读过他们的两次侵略：一次对加拉格拉西；一次对罗马。但东方和西方在天上没有固定点，因此再也不该说战争来自东方还是西方，这样的说法再也无法固定。但北方和南方是固定的；而且很少或从未见到遥远的南方人进犯过北方人，而只是相反。这就表明：世界的北方本性上是比较好战的地区——这可能与北半球的诸星宿有关，或者与地球北部的各大陆有关；而世界的南部，大家知道，几乎全是海洋；或者北方的冷（这是最明显的原因），不用训练与纪律，就能使人身强体壮，勇敢顽强。
Upon the breaking and shivering of a great state and empire, you may be sure to have wars. For great empires, while they stand, do enervate and destroy the forces of the natives which they have subdued, resting upon their own protecting forces; and then when they fail also, all goes to ruin, and they become a prey. So was it in the decay of the Roman empire; and likewise in the empire of Almaigne, after Charles the Great, every bird tak-ing a feather; and were not unlike to befall to Spain, if it should break. The great accessions and unions of kingdoms, do likewise stir up wars; for when a state grows to an over-power, it is like a great flood, that will be sure to overflow. As it hath been seen in the states of Rome, Turkey, Spain, and others. Look when the world hath fewest bar-barous peoples, but such as commonly will not marry or generate, except they know means to live (as it is almost everywhere at this day, except Tar-tary), there is no danger of inundations of people; but when there be great shoals of people, which go on to populate, without foreseeing means of life and sustentation, it is of necessity that once in an age or two, they discharge a portion of their people upon other nations; which the ancient northern people were wont to do by lot; casting lots what part should stay at home, and what should seek their fortunes. When a warlike state grows soft and effeminate, they may be sure of a war. For com-monly such states are grownm rich in the time of their degenerating; and so the prey inviteth, and their decay in valor, encourageth a war.
大国或帝国破裂瓦解之际，无疑是战争爆发之时。因为当伟大帝国雄踞天下，肯定要依靠自己的防卫力量，削弱和摧毁被它臣服的当地武装；等到帝国衰落, 土崩瓦解，，它也变成被掠夺的猎物。罗马帝国的衰落就是这样；加洛林帝国在查理大帝之后同样也分崩离析（或译“作鸟兽散”）。如果西班牙将分裂，也难免是同样的命运。王国之间的兼并和联合同样也会挑起战争。因为一个国家变得过分强大（或译“变成超级大国”），就一定会像洪水，泛滥成灾。罗马、土耳其、西班牙、以及其他国家也见到这种情况。
如果当今世界已经很少野蛮民族，而这样的民族又普遍不愿结婚生育（除了鞑靼，这种情况今天几乎到处都是），那就没有人口泛滥的危险；但世界有大量大量的人口，而且继续大量增加，而他们却看不见生存的手段，因此每隔一、两个年代（age），必须把一部分人转移到别的国家；这种做法，古代的北方民族习惯用抽签来确定哪部分留在家，哪部分出外寻找幸福。当一个好战的国家变得软弱可欺，它肯定要有战争了。因为这样的国家在衰落时期变得富裕，更易成为猎人的对象，而他们的士气低落，更促使别国发动战争。
As for the weapons, it hardly falleth under rule and observation: yet we see even they, have re-turns and vicissitudes. For certain it is, that ord-nance was known in the city of the Oxidrakes in India; and was that, which the Macedonians called thunder and lightning, and magic. And it is well known that the use of ordnance, hath been in China above two thousand years. The conditions of weapons, and their improvement, are; First, the fetching afar off; for that outruns the danger; as it is seen in ordnance and muskets. Secondly, the strength of the percussion; wherein likewise ord-nance do exceed all arietations and ancient inven-tions. The third is, the commodious use of them; as that they may serve in all weathers; that the car-riage may be light and manageable; and the like.
至于武器，几乎无规则可以研究，然而我们可以回顾武器的过去和演变。现在可以肯定，火炮早在印度奥克斯拉斯市就已出现；而马其顿人也曾经把火炮称作雷电和魔法。众所周知，两千多年前中国就使用了火炮。武器的状况与改善有三点：第一、射程远，避免（自己）危险；火炮与步枪就是这样。第二、攻击力：在这方面，火炮胜过类似武器所有的定位器和古代发明；第三、使用方便：可以在各种天气使用，搬运轻便与操作简易，等。
For the conduct of the war: at the first, men rested extremely upon number: they did put the wars likewise upon main force and valor; pointing days for pitched fields, and so trying it out upon an even match and they were more ignorant in ranging and arraying their battles. After, they grew to rest upon number rather competent, than vast; they grew to advantages of place, cunning diversions, and the like: and they grew more skil-ful in the ordering of their battles.
至于战争进行的方式，最初，人们完全依靠数量，他们主要靠兵力和士气取胜；约定交战的日期，争取平等的竞争条件；对列兵布阵无知。后来，他们在依靠数量中逐渐学会重视战斗力，逐渐学会利用地形地貌、机动灵活的战术，等等；他们在指挥战斗方面变得日益成熟。
In the youth of a state, arms do flourish; in the middle age of a state, learning; and then both of them together for a time; in the declining age of a state, mechanical arts and merchandize. Learning hath his infancy, when it is but beginning and almost childish; then his youth, when it is luxuri-ant and juvenile; then his strength of years, when it is solid and reduced; and lastly, his old age, when it waxeth dry and exhaust. But it is not good to look too long upon these turning wheels of vicissitude, lest we become giddy. As for the philology of them, that is but a circle of tales, and therefore not fit for this writing.
国家有自己的青年、中年、壮年和晚年。在青年扩军备，在中年繁荣学术文化；文武昌盛的壮年之后是衰落的晚年，工业科技和商业贸易发达。学术文化也有自己的童年，如人生开始，幼稚可笑；然后是青年，血气方刚，繁荣成熟；然后是壮年，年富力强，但锐气日减；最后是老年，干瘦枯萎，精力衰竭。但我们不宜过久地注视世界这些转动的车轮，以免头晕眼花。至于语言学和文献学的做法，只能引出一系列传说，因此不适合本文。