英文原文

MOOD OF OPTIMISM SHOWS LITTLE SIGN OF ABATING

Equities and other risky assets climbed to 2009 highs yesterday as the mood of optimism over the global economy showed few signs of abating.

The annual gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole in Wyoming over the weekend saw several officials claim that the world economy was pulling out of recession – although with the caveat that much work still remained to be done.

“As is often the case there was something for everyone – optimists can point to officials' growing confidence that the worst is over, while pessimists will note the near-universal view that the recovery will be slow and bumpy,” said Julian Jessop at Capital Economics.

“For us, the key message from Jackson Hole was therefore that monetary policy is likely to remain ultra-accommodative for the foreseeable future – at least for the next several years.”

Steve Barrow at Standard Bank said it was important to bear in mind that central banks would not start tightening policy just because the economy was showing signs of improvement.

“For as well as being cautious about choking off any fledgling recovery, policymakers will have to bear in mind the huge output gaps that have developed,” he said.

“Evidence suggests that core [non-energy] inflation only starts to rise again once the output gap has been closed.”

Mr Barrow pointed out that in spite of growing hopes for a global recovery bond yields had remained relatively low. Indeed, yesterday saw further buying of government bonds in spite of the improvement in risk appetite – the 10-year Treasury yield was down 4 basis points at 3.53 per cent and the 10-year Bund yield was 3bp lower at 3.29 per cent.

Kim Rupert at Action Economics suggested that stock and bond markets had traded in recent weeks as if they “were from different planets”.

“Most global equity markets have been buoyed by recovery enthusiasm – while bonds have been boosted by concerns the recovery will be stilted,” she said.

“This war of worlds won't be won or lost this week, but after mostly upbeat comments from central bankers at last week's Jackson Hole symposium, the onus will be on data to prove stocks are over-valued.”

There were few signs yesterday that investors felt valuations to be overstretched just yet, as leading equity market indices reached fresh 10-month highs.

By midday in New York, the S&P 500 was up 0.6 per cent, while the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index rose 0.9 per cent. In spite of the advance, the Vix volatility index – often described as Wall Street's “fear gauge” – rose 1 per cent to trade back above the 25 level.

Asian stocks markets put in even stronger performances. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 Average jumped 3.4 per cent to close just a whisker off a recent ten-month peak, while Seoul ended at a 13-month high and Taipei enjoyed its best one-day rise for two months.

Chinese stocks also enjoyed a steadier session in the wake of last week's turbulence.

Jan Loeys, global head of market strategy at JPMorgan, said a stable equity market was particularly important for China as it was a precondition for the successful resumption of IPOs and the ambitious capital market reforms planned in the near term.

“We believe that the Chinese authorities will take measures to put a floor under stock prices in the event of further correction,” he said.

中文翻译

全球股市及其它高风险资产价格昨日攀升至2009年高点。人们对于全球经济的乐观情绪，几乎没有显示出任何减弱的迹象。

在上周末美国怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的央行行长年会上，有多名官员称，全球经济正走出衰退——尽管他们同时告诫称，还有许多工作仍需完成。

“与通常发生的情况一样，大家都有话可说——乐观者可以指出官员们的信心与日俱增，说明最糟糕的时候已经过去；而悲观者将会指出，各方近乎一致的看法是，此轮复苏将是缓慢而曲折的，”伦敦资本经济(Capital Economics)的朱利安·杰瑟普(Julian Jessop)表示。

“对我们来说，从杰克逊霍尔传出的关键信息是，货币政策在可预见的将来（至少是今后数年期间）很可能将保持极度宽松。”

标准银行(Standard Bank)的史蒂夫·巴罗(Steve Barrow)表示，有必要记住的是，各国央行不会仅仅因为经济出现好转迹象，就开始收紧政策。

“因为除了悉心呵护刚刚露头的复苏之外，政策制定者们还将不得不考虑已经产生的巨大产出缺口，”他表示。

“证据显示，核心通胀[剔除能源]只会在产出缺口消失的情况下，才会开始再度上升。”

巴罗指出，尽管人们对于全球复苏的希望日渐增强，但债券收益率仍保持在相对低位。的确，尽管风险偏好有所上升，但昨日政府债券的购买量进一步增加——10年期美国国债的收益率下跌4个基点，至3.53%，而10年期德国国债的收益率下跌3个基点，至3.29%。

Action Economics的金·鲁珀特(Kim Rupert)表示，近几周股市和债市走势迥异，仿佛“它们来自不同的星球”。

“对于复苏的激情，提振了全球多数股市，而对于‘复苏将步履踉跄'的担忧，则提振了债市，”她表示。

“两大阵营之战，不会在本周决出胜负，但上周各国央行行长在杰克逊霍尔发表总体上较为积极的言论后，悲观者将需要拿出数据证明股票估值过高。”

昨日几乎没有迹象显示，投资者眼下觉得股票估值过高。各大主要股指均升至10个月新高。

截至纽约午盘，标普500指数上涨0.6%，而FTSE Eurofirst 300指数上涨0.9%。尽管股市上升，但素有华尔街“恐惧风向标”之称的Vix波动指数上升1%，重新回到了25上方。

亚洲各地股市的表现更为强劲。在东京，日经225指数跃升3.4%，收盘略低于近日创下的10个月高点。韩国股市收于13个月高点，台湾股市则录得两个月来的最大单日涨幅。

中国股市在上周的震荡后，昨日的走势也较为稳健。

摩根大通(JP Morgan)市场策略部门全球主管詹·洛伊斯(Jan Loeys)表示，稳定的股市对中国尤其重要，因为这是成功重启IPO以及近期计划出台的资本市场改革的先决条件。

“我们认为，中国政府将在市场出现进一步回调时采取措施，为股价下落划定底线，”他表示。