英文原文

China's Economy: Rare Signs of Optimism

The global economy is short on just about everything it needs for recovery these days — credit, jobs and new customers. But most of all, the world is suffering from a shortage of optimism. As unemployment mounts, asset values deteriorate and governments scramble for solutions, most consumers and investors still don't see the light at the end of the recession tunnel.

Except, that is, in China. Some economists and investors have turned mildly bullish on the Chinese economy. A February survey conducted by Merrill Lynch saw the number of fund managers who believed China's growth would be lower in the next 12 months shrink drastically. Jing Ulrich, chairman of China securities at JPMorgan in Hong Kong, noted after client meetings that "attitudes toward China's efforts to counter the economic slump seem to have turned more positive." The happy mood also showed up in Chinese stocks. By mid-February, the Shanghai stock market had surged more than 30% since the beginning of the year, making it the world's best performer. (The index has fallen off slightly since.) (See 10 things to do in Shanghai.)

These optimists are focusing on some surprising data emerging from the Chinese economy. The purchasing managers index (PMI) — a measure of the health of the manufacturing sector — has inched upward since November, indicating that China's important industrial sector isn't decelerating as quickly as it did in the preceding months. Most important, Chinese banks doled out nearly $240 billion of new loans in January — a one-month record. Some economists have taken these data as evidence that China's economy has already bottomed out. Merrill Lynch economists Ting Lu and T.J. Bond reaffirmed their bullish 8% GDP-growth estimate for 2009 in a February report, arguing that the turnaround could begin in the second quarter. "China looks set to be the first major economy to recover from the current global meltdown," they proclaimed.

Much of that rosy outlook is pinned to a rock-solid faith in the Chinese government. These signs of new life in the national economy are seen by some economists as evidence that Beijing's massive monetary and fiscal-stimulus measures are kicking in. In November, the government announced a $586 billion spending package, mainly in new infrastructure projects, and since then, policymakers have introduced a long slate of measures to boost consumer spending. The government raised pension payments to retirees from state-owned enterprises, hiked teacher salaries, cut sales taxes on some vehicles and subsidized purchases of appliances for rural consumers. Some local officials have even issued spending coupons. The effort to keep growth going at all costs will continue, the optimists say. "China needs to build up credibility and establish its reputation as it rises as a global power, and the timing has never been so right when Western economies are being brought to their knees in this global financial meltdown," the Merrill economists wrote. (See pictures of the global financial crisis.)

Not everyone is so convinced. The current improvement in data "is not big enough to warrant optimism" that a recovery is around the corner, says Eric Fishwick, head of economic research at brokerage CLSA in Hong Kong, who has maintained his 5.5% growth estimate for 2009. Jun Ma, an economist at Deutsche Bank, argues that China will experience a "double-dip" or "W-shaped" recovery. While the economy may show signs of life in the near term, he believes the current upturn will fizzle and the economy won't hit a final bottom until the first half of 2010.

The bears, instead, are looking at the Chinese economy's continued signs of weakness. Exports, a key driver of growth, continue to plummet as demand for China's toys, blue jeans and TV sets dries up in the United States. In January, exports plunged 17.5% from the same month a year earlier. Nor are the more negative convinced that the better data coming out of China are as meaningful as they appear. Take, for example, the record level of loans, which some argue won't stimulate growth as much as expected. There are signs that some borrowers, for example, are trying to turn a quick profit by capitalizing on differentials in interest rates. The loan growth may also not be sustainable, as government concerns about rising nonperforming loans could lead to reduced lending in coming months. "Given the sharpness and severity of the recent slowdown, the recovery path is likely to be volatile as well," wrote Goldman Sachs economists Helen Qiao and Yu Song in a recent report. They're holding to their below-consensus 6% GDP-growth forecast for 2009.

Economist Jim Walker of Asianomics, an independent research firm in Hong Kong, argues that what appear to be signs of recovery in China are in fact indications that the country might be headed for long-term problems. Walker believes that Chinese policymakers aren't allowing the economy's excessive and unnecessary industrial capacity to die off naturally, keeping alive sick companies that could drag down the economy in the future. "By throwing money into the economy ... Beijing is running the risk of turning a nasty cyclical downturn into a structural problem that will take years to unwind," Walker writes. "Beijing is now embarked on perhaps the greatest policy mistake in its history." So much for optimism.

参考翻译

最近，全球经济复苏所需的一切都处于短缺状态——信用缺失，工作难找，新消费者难求。最缺少的是乐观的精神状态。面对着不断增长的失业人数，进一步恶化的资产和政府勉强拼凑出来的措施，大部分消费者和投资者都没有看到经济衰退隧道尽头的曙光。
　　
中国例外。一些经济学家和投资者目光转向了适度上涨的中国经济。二月份，美林证券调查发现，越来越少的基金管理人认为中国经济将会在未来12月内下跌。Jing Ulrich，中国香港摩根大通证券监督管理委员会主席，在客户会议后表示，“人们开始对中国针对经济危机采取的措施表现出积极的态度。”这种乐观的情绪也感染了中国股市。自年初到二月中旬，上海股市增幅超过了30%，全球首高（自二月中后，该指数略有下降）。
　　
中国经济展现出来的一些惊人数据吸引了乐观主义者的眼球。采购经理人指数（PMI）——衡量制造业的体检表——从11月开始步步高升，表明中国重要的工业部门没有像先前那几个月一样持续减速。更重要的，中国银行在一月份发放了将近2400亿美元贷款——一项单月记录。一些经济学家将这作为中国经济已经触底回升的证据。美林证券的经济学家Ting Lu 和 T.J. Bond在二月份的报告中，再度表示他们预计2009年GDP增长率为8%，并表明经济可能于第二季度开始好转。“看起来，中国可能是第一个走出当前金融危机的国家。”
　　
蒸蒸日上的前景与中国政府坚如磐石信念息息相关。经济学家认为，这些国民经济新活力的象征是政府财政和金融措施介入的结果。11月，政府宣布将耗资5860亿美元以促进经济发展，着眼于新的基础建设工程。自那以后，决策者们提出了一系列措施来推进消费者消费。政府提高了国有企业退休工人的退休金，涨了教师的薪水，降低了一些交通工具的营业税，为购买电器的农村消费者提供补助。一些地方政府甚至发行了开支优惠券。乐观主义者认为，中国会继续努力不惜一切代价保持经济持续增长。“西方经济向全球经济危机屈膝投降的时刻，就是中国建立起信用体制，确立全球强国声誉的最佳时机。”美林的经济学家们写道。
　　
并不是每个人都如此心服口服。目前数据的改善“并不足以保证”复苏即将来临，香港里昂证券经纪公司经济研究头目Eric Fishwick如是说。他预计2009年GDP增长率为5.5%。德意志银行的经济学家Jun Ma表示，中国将会经历二次衰退或者呈W形复苏模式。最近，经济可能表现出一定的活力，但他认为目前的好转将会成为泡影，中国经济将于2010年中降至谷底。
　　
悲观主义者关注着中国经济持续衰弱的迹象。随着美国对中国制造的玩具，牛仔裤和电视的需求枯竭，经济增长的关键驱动力——出口额持续下跌。1月份，出口额比去年同期降低了17.5%。更悲观的人认为，那些好数据并不像看起来那么有实际意义。比如，有人认为贷款记录不会如人所愿地促进经济发展。有迹象表示，一些贷款人想通过利率差额的资本化来牟取暴利。随着政府对不良贷款增多的关注，未来几月内借贷可能降低，因此贷款额的增长也是非持续的。高盛公司的经济学家Helen Qiao和Yu Song在最近的一份报告中表示，“鉴于此次经济危机来势迅猛，破坏力强，复苏之路可能会出现反复，”他们一致认为，09年的GDP增长率将约为6%。
　　
香港一家独立经济研究机构Asianomics的经济学家Jim Walker说，目前中国展现的复苏倾向实际上表明中国正朝长期问题而去。他认为，中国不允许冗余工业走向自然死亡，让病态的企业持续生存将会给未来的经济发展拖后腿。“通过向经济体系扔钱…北京正冒着从经济周期性低迷转向结构问题（将会在几年内慢慢展开）的风险，” Walker写道。“北京可能犯了历史上最大的决策错误。”乐观到此为止。