Getting Past Zero-Sum
摆脱零和游戏
Given the way that relations among China, Russia, and the United States are intertwined, no analysis of Chinese-Russian ties would be complete without a consideration of where things stand between China and the United States. Compared with the Chinese-Russian relationship, the one between Beijing and Washington is wider and more complicated. Combined, China and the United States account for one-third of global GDP. In 2014, U.S.-Chinese trade reached nearly $600 billion, and accumulated mutual investment exceeded $120 billion. Thirty-seven years ago, when the People's Republic of China established diplomatic relations with the United States, no one expected such a strong partnership to emerge.
鉴于中、俄、美三国之间的关系互相关联，研究中俄关系也需要关注到中美关系的状况。与中俄关系相比，北京和华盛顿之间的关系更加广泛但也更为复杂。中美经济总量占到全球三分之一。2014年，双边贸易额接近6000多亿美元，双向投资存量超过1200亿美元。37年前，当中美刚刚建交之际，没人预料两国会发展成如此强有力的伙伴关系。
But there is no denying the structural difficulties in the relationship. Significant differences remain between Chinese and U.S. political values and between the governing systems in the two countries. And many Americans perceive China's growing economic strength and its correspondingly higher international influence as a potential threat to Washington's global leadership. China has quickly grown into the world's second-largest economy. When U.S. troops invaded Iraq in 2003, China's GDP was roughly one-eighth that of the United States. By the time the Americans pulled out of Iraq eight years later, China's GDP had grown to half that of the United States. According to many estimates, China's GDP will approach the United States' by 2020. These changes have provoked fears in Washington that China and the United States are on a collision course. Disputes over China's construction activities in the Spratly Islands, in the South China Sea, have fueled a heated debate about how the United States should respond to what some American scholars and commentators see as expansionism. Meanwhile, Beijing regards the presence of U.S. military vessels near Chinese territory in the South China Sea as an act of provocation. Some argue that U.S. policy toward China may shift from constructive engagement to containment.
但不可否认，中美关系也存在结构性的矛盾。两国的政治理念和制度有巨大的不同。很多美国人将中国不断增长的经济实力及与之相应的更大国际影响力视为对华盛顿全球领导力的潜在威胁。中国正迅速成长为世界第二大经济体。当2003年美国派兵入侵伊拉克之际，中国的国内生产总值（GDP）大约是美国的八分之一。八年后，当美开始从伊拉克撤军之时，中国的GDP已增至美国的一半。很多报告预测，到2020年，中国的GDP将与美国接近。这些变化令华盛顿担心中美走上了对抗之路。针对中国在南中国海的斯普拉特利群岛（即我南沙群岛——本网注）一些岛礁上的扩建行为，很多美国学者和评论家认为这是"扩张主义"的体现，并就美国应如何应对展开了激烈讨论。同时，北京认为，美国派军舰接近中国的南中国海岛礁是挑衅行为，有观点认为美国的对华政策从建设性接触转向遏制。
These debates provided the backdrop for Xi's state visit to Washington last September. In remarks during the visit, Xi directly addressed the idea that China's development presents a challenge to the United States' global leadership. "The path China follows is one of peaceful development, and China does not pose a threat to other countries," Xi said. Later, he added, "People should give up the old concepts of ‘you lose, I win,' or zero-sum game, and establish a new concept of peaceful development and win-win cooperation. If China develops well, it will benefit the whole world and benefit the United States. If the United States develops well, it will also benefit the world and China."
在这些争论的背景下，习近平主席今年9月对美国进行了国事访问。习主席在访美期间，对美国内有关中国的发展对美国的世界领导力构成挑战的观点进行了回应。他说，"中国坚持走和平发展道路，对其他国家不构成威胁"。后来，他还表示，"人们应摈弃你输我赢、零和博弈旧观念，树立和平发展、合作共赢新理念。中国发展好了，对世界有利，对美国也有利；美国发展好了，对世界和中国也有利"。
Chinese leaders attribute much of their country's rapid ascent to China's successful integration into the world economy. They see China as a beneficiary of the international order, with the UN at its core, and as a strong advocate of principles such as sovereign equality and nonintervention in the internal affairs of states, which the UN Charter enshrines. China expects that it will have to focus on its own domestic economic and social development for a long time to come and thus highly values the maintenance of a stable and peaceful external environment. Although China is determined to protect its own interests and would respond firmly to provocations, encroachments on its territorial sovereignty, or threats to its rights and interests, its main goal is still to ensure that peace and stability prevail. And China is committed to safeguarding the international order and the Asia-Pacific regional order, as well as further integrating into the globalized world.
中国领导人认为中国的快速发展在一定程度上得益于成功融入世界经济体系。他们认为中国是以联合国为核心的国际秩序的获益者，秉持和推崇《联合国宪章》规定的主权平等和不干涉他国内政的原则。中国认为自身在相当长时间里都需要聚焦国内经济和社会发展，因此高度重视维护一个稳定与和平的外部环境。中国在维护自身利益上的态度是明确和坚决的，对于任何挑衅和侵犯中国领土主权和权益的做法都会给予坚决的回应，目的仍是要确保和平与稳定。中国将继续致力于维护地区和国际秩序，更紧密地融入这个全球化的世界。
Improving U.S.-Chinese relations represents an important part of China's diplomatic effort. Last September marked Xi's first state visit to Washington, but he and U.S. President Barack Obama had previously met five times since 2013 and had spoken over the phone on three occasions. In June 2013, when the two leaders met at the Sunnylands summit, in California, they talked for more than seven hours. After the meeting, Xi announced that China and the United States would pursue a "new model of major-country relationship," which he defined as a relationship based on nonconflict, nonconfrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation. The two leaders have since continued their conversations on that theme: in November 2014 in Beijing, they held the "Yingtai dialogue," which lasted for nearly five hours. And during Xi's state visit, he and Obama spent around nine hours talking to each other and attending events together. These long meetings between the two leaders have helped them build understanding and ward off the confrontation that some U.S. analysts believe is inevitable.
促进中美关系是中国外交的重要组成部分。2015年9月，习近平主席对美国进行首次国事访问。之前，自2013年以来，他和美国总统奥巴马已会面5次，此外还有3次通话。2013年6月，两位领导人在加州安纳伯格庄园进行了7个多小时的长谈。之后，习主席宣布中美将构建"新型大国关系"，他将之定义为"不冲突、不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢"。两位领导人之后围绕这一主题继续对话。2014年11月，他们在北京的"瀛台夜话"持续近5个小时。在2015年9月习主席对美国的国事访问中，与奥巴马总统直接对话和共同活动时间约9个小时。两国元首长时间的会晤有助于他们增进了解，防止发生一些美国分析家们认为不可避免的冲突。
The state visit, in particular, was very productive. The two sides reached agreement on a wide range of issues, including macroeconomic policy coordination, climate change, global health, counterterrorism, and nuclear nonproliferation. Xi and Obama also spoke candidly about the cybersecurity issues that have represented a serious point of contention between Beijing and Washington; the two leaders clarified their countries' intentions, agreed to form a high-level joint dialogue on the subject, and committed to work together to establish an international cybersecurity code of conduct. This is a strong demonstration that the two countries can promote global cooperation on important issues.
习主席这次国事访问取得了丰硕的成果。双方在广泛领域达成共识，包括宏观经济政策协调、气候变化、全球卫生安全、反恐和核不扩散领域的挑战。网络安全曾是访问前两国分歧严重的领域之一，双方领导人就此进行了坦诚的对话，阐明各自意图并就这方面建立高级别对话机制达成共识，表示将致力于合作构建互联网空间国际行为准则。这充分显示出中美能够在重要问题上促进全球合作。
Of course, Beijing and Washington may continue to have disagreements over the South China Sea, Taiwan, human rights, trade policy, and other matters. The intentions of the U.S. military alliances in the Asia-Pacific remain a particular source of concern for China, especially since Washington announced its "pivot" to Asia in 2011. Some U.S. allies in the region have made claims on China's sovereign territory and infringed on Chinese maritime rights, hoping that by cozying up to Washington, they could involve the United States in their disputes with Beijing. This is a dangerous path, reminiscent of the "bloc politics" of the Cold War.
当然，北京和华盛顿在例如南中国海、台湾、人权、贸易等问题上仍然存在分歧。中国对美国亚太军事同盟的意图极为关切，特别是在2009年华盛顿宣布"转向亚洲"战略之后。美国在亚洲的一些盟友为了强化自己在与中国的领土和海洋权益争议上的地位，试图通过讨好华盛顿，让美国介入它们与北京的争端。这是非常危险的，让人联想到冷战时期的"集团政治"。
Some scholars in China and elsewhere have suggested that if the United States insists on imposing bloc politics on the region, China and Russia should consider responding by forming a bloc of their own. But the Chinese leadership does not approve of such arguments. China does not pursue blocs or alliances, nor do such arrangements fit comfortably with Chinese political culture. Russia does not intend to form such a bloc, either. China and Russia should stick to the principle of partnership rather than build an alliance. As for China and the United States, they should continue pursuing a new model of major-country relations and allow dialogue, cooperation, and management of differences to prevail.
一些中国和其他地区的学者建议，如果美国在本地区坚持推动集团政治，中国和俄罗斯应当考虑通过结盟来应对。但中国领导层并不认可这种说法。中国不搞集团政治和结盟，而且这也不符合中国的政治文化。俄罗斯也没有这样的意愿。中俄两国应该坚持结伴不结盟的原则。中美两国应该继续谋求建立新型大国关系，让对话、合作和管控分歧成为主导。

Three Sides to Every Story
三角关系
Relations among China, Russia, and the United States currently resemble a scalene triangle, in which the greatest distance between the three points lies between Moscow and Washington. Within this triangle, Chinese-Russian relations are the most positive and stable. The U.S.-Chinese relationship has frequent ups and downs, and U.S.-Russian relations have become very tense, especially because Russia now has to contend with significant U.S. sanctions. Meanwhile, both Beijing and Moscow object to Washington's use of force against and imposition of sanctions on other countries and to the double standards the United States applies in its foreign policies.
中俄美三国目前的相互关系如同一个不等边三角形，其中，华盛顿和莫斯科的这条边距离最长。在三国关系当中，中俄关系最为积极和稳定。中美关系一直起伏不断，俄美关系非常紧张，尤其因为俄罗斯现在正遭受美国的严厉制裁。与此同时，北京和莫斯科反对华盛顿动辄以武力和制裁方式对他国施压及其在外交政策中搞双重标准。
The United States and its allies might interpret closer ties between China and Russia as evidence of a proto-alliance that intends to disrupt or challenge the U.S.-led world order. But from the Chinese perspective, the tripartite relationship should not be considered a game in which two players ally against a third. The sound development of Chinese-Russian relations is not intended to harm the United States, nor should Washington seek to influence it. Likewise, China's cooperation with the United States will not be affected by Russia, nor by tensions between Moscow and Washington. China should neither form an alliance based on bloc politics nor allow itself to be recruited as an ally by other countries.
美国及其盟友可能将中俄走近视为走向结盟、意图扰乱或挑战美国主导的世界秩序的证据。但从中国的角度看，中美俄三方关系不应该被视为一方联合另一方对付第三方的博弈。中俄关系的良好发展不针对美国，美国也不应该试图施加影响。同样，中国同美国开展合作也不会受到俄罗斯或莫斯科与华盛顿紧张关系的影响。中国不会构建以集团政治为基础的同盟体系，也不会成为其他国家的盟友。
The current international order is the cornerstone of global stability – but it is not perfect. In 2005, China and Russia issued a joint statement on "the international order in the twenty-first century," which called for the international system to become more just, drawing its legitimacy from the principles and norms of international law. The statement made clear that Beijing and Moscow see the evolution of their relations – from mistrust and competition to partnership and cooperation – as a model for how countries can manage their differences and work together on areas of agreement in a way that supports global order and decreases the chance that the world will descend into great-power conflict and war.
现行国际秩序是世界稳定的基石——但并非尽善尽美。2005年中俄共同发表了《关于21世纪国际秩序的联合声明》，呼吁国际体系更加公正，以公认的国际法准则为合法基础。联合声明显示，北京和莫斯科视双边关系的发展——从不信任与竞争到伙伴与合作——为国与国之间提供了一种选择模式，使他们能够管控分歧，扩大共识，支持全球秩序，减少世界陷入大国冲突与战争的风险。