Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, da jia hao, and thank you for joining us for this important launch of the 2015 China Carbon Market Research Report. The Report was compiled by the Environomist, with contributions from the International Finance Corporation, South Pole Carbon Asset Management, the Central University of Finance and Economics, the 2O Investing Initiative, and UNDP. Thank you all for joining us and contributing.
尊敬的各位嘉宾、女士们先生们，大家好，感谢你们参与2015年中国碳市场研究报告发布会这一重要时刻。这份报告在国际金融公司（IFC）、南极碳资产管理、中央财经大学、2O投资计划与联合国开发计划署的支持下，由北京环维易为低碳技术咨询有限公司编制。感谢诸位的参与和贡献。
As we know, countries are preparing this year to reach a new global climate change agreement at the Paris conference this December. Such an agreement is critical. The International Panel on Climate Change estimated a total carbon dioxide budget of about 3670 Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide for a likely chance of staying within the 2°C limit. Since the late 19th century, the world has already emitted around 1900 Gt CO2 and so has used up a large part of this budget. We are left with less than about 1000 Gt CO2 to “spend” in the future.
我们知道，很多国家都准备在今年12月于巴黎举行的气候大会上达成一个新的全球气候变化协议。这项协议至关重要——据国际气候变化委员会估计，人类最多排放约36700亿吨二氧化碳，才有可能将全球温度变化控制在2°C以内。自从19世纪末，全世界已经累计排放了约19000亿吨二氧化碳，已然用掉了此限额的大部分。我们未来只剩下不到10000亿吨的二氧化碳排放额。
This implies a lot of action in the coming years. Based on a subset of scenarios and these limits, the best estimate is that global emissions in 2050 should be around 55% below 2010 levels. By 2030 global emissions should be more than 10% below 2010 levels after earlier peaking. Yet, under a range of business as usual scenarios, global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to continue rising to 68 GtCO2e in 2030 and 87 GtCO2e in 2050. There is a huge, daunting climate action gap to be filled by public and private sectors in as many countries as possible. And a market mechanism such as emissions trading could well be one of the key solutions.
这意味着未来的几年要采取许多行动。根据一系列情景分析和这些限值，最好的预估是，到2050年，全球碳排放量需比2010年水平下降约55%。到2030年，在达到峰值之后，全球排放量需比2010年水平下降至少10%。然而，如若照目前的排放情况继续发展下去，预计全球温室气体排放量将在2030年增加到680亿吨，并在2050年增加到870亿吨。这就存在着一个巨大气候行动沟壑，亟待尽可能多国家的公共和私营部门采取行动来填补，而碳排放交易这种市场机制很可能是主要的解决方案之一。
Personally, I’ve known about emissions trading for a long time. In 2004 I had the opportunity to work on the first ever voluntary emissions trading scheme for greenhouse gases, in the UK, as well as the mandatory EU emissions trading scheme which began as a pilot in 2005.
就个人而言，我很早就知道了排放权交易。2004年我有幸在英国参与了首次温室气体自愿排放交易计划，以及在2005年开始试点的强制性欧盟排放交易计划的制定施行。
Reading this report took me back to those hopeful and fascinating days – though they were also days that involved a great deal of work – for instance trying to list and calculate the allocations for over 1000 firms from all sorts of sectors, based on data that at that time was very scarce and difficult to verify, and based on projections of industry growth that was also constantly shifting. One of the experiences I will never forget is a meeting with the UK’s Iron and Steel industry, who, at that time, were arguing that their steel production would increase, despite the global shifts in manufacturing taking place, particularly China’s rise. As government officials, we had to be “steely” – otherwise, as would turn out elsewhere, we would give them too many allocations and the market would not work. Looking back on it now, I was one of 25 or so pioneering teams around the world at the time calculating and negotiating these figures. Based on these teams, the EU has had some great experience but has alsohad to face some major challenges and changes.
阅读这份报告把我带回到那充满希望和令人着迷的过往时光。尽管当时工作量巨大——比如说尝试为超过1000个来自不同行业的公司列出并计算出配额：我们所依据的数据在那个时候是非常稀缺、难以核实的，而且行业增长预测也在不断变化。我永远不会忘记的一次经历是与英国的钢铁行业的一次会议上，钢铁行业认为他们的钢产量将增加，尽管全球的制造业正在发生转移，特别是中国的崛起。作为政府官员，我们不得不非常严格，否则，我们就会像其他地方一样给他们太多的配额，这个市场是行不通的。回过头来看，我是当时世界上大约25个计算和谈判这些数据的先锋团队的一员。基于这些团队，欧盟已经有一些伟大的经验，但也不得不面对一些重大的挑战和变化。
Which brings me to China, because China is the new pioneer. In 2011, China took the bold move as the first developing country to implement emissions trading, by first carrying out 7 ETS pilots in Gungzhou, Hubei, Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen, Beijing, and Chongqing. And on December 12th 2014, the NDRC published the Interim Measures on Carbon Emissions Trading Management, which provided the basic details for the framework of a national ETS, which is expected to be launched by mid-2016.
这让我想起了中国，因为中国是这一领域的新的先锋。 2011年，中国成为了采取大胆的举动以实行排放权交易的首个发展中国家。中国在7个省市试点碳排放交易体系，包括广州，湖北，上海，天津，深圳，北京和重庆。2014年12月12日，国家发改委公布的碳排放交易管理暂行办法提供了关于全国排放交易体系的基本细节，而这一框架体系预计到2016年中期推出。
What blows my mind as someone who worked on the EU scheme, is that with just these 7 pilots, China is already the second largest carbon market in the world with allowances equivalent to 1.12 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, more than half of the EU ETS in 2013. The total number of installations – in just these 7 pilots, is almost double the number I was dealing with in the UK for the mandatory EU scheme.
作为一名曾经参与过欧盟体系工作的人，令我非常震惊的是，仅仅凭借这七个试点，中国已经成为世界第二大碳市场，其交易配额相当于11.2亿吨二氧化碳当量，超过了2013年欧盟排放交易体系的一半。仅仅这七个试点的总数已经几乎是我在英国处理的强制性欧盟计划数量的两倍。
Now, of course, China is the world’s second largest economy and largest greenhouse gas emitter, so perhaps I should not be surprised. And in fact it is not quite the scale of outcomes that blows my mind.
现如今，中国成为世界第二大经济体和最大的温室气体排放国，也许我不应该为此感到惊讶，而事实上并不是这个结果的规模使我震惊。
In fact two things stand out for me.
有两件事情格外引人注目。
First, and what comes out through the report we have today is the wide range of experience that these pilots are giving China – well beyond the experience that the UK, EU and other existing emissions trading schemes can give. For example, what is already excellent is that China’s National scheme looks like it will be based on ambitious goals – as set out in the historic China-US agreement last year. This doesn’t mean it won’t pose challenges however in design. I found it interesting that the pilots mostly have free allowances, which I can tell you from experience are very difficult to calculate. And different pilots are covering different sectors and sizes of installations. It will be key to translate this experience – what works and what doesn’t work here in China – into the national ETS. And this report is critical for that.
首先，我们今天的报告展示了这七个试点带给中国的广泛经验，这些经验远远超出了英国、欧盟和其他现有的排放交易体系可以给的。例如，中国的国家计划已然出类拔萃——它依据了去年历史性的中美协议中所制定的宏伟目标，但是这并不意味着它不会在设计中带来挑战。我觉得有趣的是，大多数试点是有免费配额的，而我的经验告诉你们这是非常难以计算的。不同的试点覆盖不同的行业和规模，关键是要把什么可行，什么在中国行不通的经验纳入国家排放交易体系，这也是这份报告的重要所在。
Second, what really came out of the report is its focus on companies. Back in the UK I built some strong relationships with the industrial representatives and individual companies while working on the emissions trading scheme. As I said earlier many of them didn’t even monitor their electricity use, let alone convert that into emissions. This is the situation many companies here in China are in too. The report shows this. Even the most enthusiastic companies – the ones that replied to the survey – have difficulties. That said, it is surprising how fast industries, regulators and local governments can adapt and build capacity, including monitoring. Since 2011, UNDP China has been working with NDRC on development of a national ETS registry and building capacity of emissions inventory and accounting at the enterprise level. The report suggests it is essential that we and others keep doing this and increase our work in this area.
其次，这份报告突出了对公司的关注。过去我在英国从事碳排放交易体系的工作时，曾与一些工业代表和个别公司建立了一些牢固的关系。正如我前面说的，很多人甚至没有监控他们的电力使用量，更不用说将其转换成碳排放量。这份报告显示这种情况在很多中国的企业中也存在，即使是那些对调查作出答复的最热心的公司也有这方面的困难。令人惊讶的是工业界、监管机构和地方政府很快地适应和建设了这一能力，包括监测方面。自2011年以来，联合国开发计划署驻华代表处一直在与国家发展改革委员会合作开展这方面的工作，包括发展全国碳排放交易体系注册系统，排放清单和企业层面核算的能力建设。该报告表明，我们和其他人有必要继续这样做，并加大这方面的工作。
Finally, I want to say something about how this report and emissions trading links to development. I cannot emphasize enough that China’s successful implementation of a national ETS will be game-changing for the world, both in providing a market-based solution to climate change, but also in providing a model that other developing countries can follow. In this time of low oil prices in particular, it is helpful for China to be pushing its companies to manage environmental impacts well. It is a great risk management strategy. But as China moves from an industrial based economy to an innovation based economy, other developing countries will need to manage these risks as well. Countries in Africa, like Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria, are industrializing, including with China’s help. But they will not want to suffer the same environmental impacts that China has to date, and China can help them avoid that, including by sharing its experience and technology for emissions trading. This is an area we want to exploresupporting in future, and again, reports like todays help us think about what are the most salient features of China’s experience that can be shared.
最后，我想谈谈这份报告和排放交易是如何与发展相关的。我想强调的是中国全国范围内碳排放交易体系的成功运行将会改变全世界碳排放交易体系的格局，因为它将提供一种以市场为导向的应对气候变化的解决方案，而且它将为其他发展中国家提供一种可借鉴的模式。尤其是在这一次低油价中，中国力推公司管理其环境影响是对中国非常有利的。这是一个很大的风险管理策略，但随着中国由工业型经济进入创新型经济，其他发展中国家也需要管理这些风险。一些非洲国家，如埃塞俄比亚，肯尼亚和尼日利亚，正在中国的帮助下实现工业化，但他们不会想承受中国迄今为止所遭受的环境影响。中国可以通过分享自己在排放权交易方面的经验和技术帮助他们避免这种情况，这正是我们想要在未来支持的领域。再一次的，就像今天的报告一样，许多报告有助于我们思考有哪些中国的经验中最显着的特征是可以共享的。
I have already shared some of my impressions of the report, but this afternoon, you will get the opportunity to develop your impressions, through first a presentation by Mr. Richard Mao of Environomist, and then the presentation of the China National ETS by Director Zhang Xin of NCSC. Afterwards, we will have experts and players in the carbon market sharing their perspectives, and we will also open the floor for open discussion.
我已经分享了我对这个报告的一些看法，而在今天下午，你们将有机会通过两个讲演发展自己的印象。第一个讲演来自环维易为的毛洋先生，然后是由国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心的张昕副主任为我们讲述国家的碳排放交易体系。之后，我们将有在碳市场领域的专家和合作方为我们分享他们的观点，我们也将在最后开展公开讨论。
I wish you all an excellent afternoon, and I look forward to a robust and wide-ranging and solutions focused discussion. This is a critical stage in the history of climate change action, and it is great that we are all part of making it happen.
预祝大家有一个美好的下午，我期待着一个生动的、广泛的、以解决方案为核心的讨论。这是应对气候变化行动的历史中的关键阶段，很高兴我们能够参与将其实现的重要过程。