Mr. Chairman, Governors, honored guests:
主席先生、各位理事、贵宾们：
On behalf of the IMF, let me warmly welcome you to these Annual Meetings. And on the occasion of our 70th anniversary, let me wish you, and all of our 188 member countries, a very happy birthday!
我谨代表基金组织，热忱欢迎各位参加本届年会。值此基金组织70周年纪念日之际，我在此祝愿诸位以及188个成员国生日快乐！
I would like to recognize my good friend and excellent colleague, President Jim Kim, and his great teams who are doing such good work at the World Bank. Happy birthday to you too!
我要感谢我的好友和同事世界银行行长金墉先生和他的团队，他们做得非常出色。也祝你们生日快乐！
This is a moment to reflect on the 70-year journey that we have all taken together. Even more importantly, it is a moment to look ahead. The choices we make today will shape our future.
此时此刻，我们要回想一起走过的70年历程，但更重要的是展望未来。今天的选择将决定我们有怎样的未来。
So let me begin with a story:
下面我想先给大家讲个故事：
In Lewis Carroll’s classic, Alice in Wonderland, there is a scene in which young Alice comes to a fork in the road, where she meets the Cheshire Cat. Alice asks the cat which way she should go:
路易丝·卡罗的经典小说《爱丽斯梦游仙境》中有这样一个场景，小爱丽丝在一个岔路口遇到了柴郡猫，于是她问自己该走哪条路：
“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” says the cat.
“这得看你想去哪儿，”猫回答说。
“I don’t really care where,” says Alice.
“我并不特别在意去哪儿，”爱丽丝说。
“Then it doesn’t matter which way you go”, says the Cheshire cat.
“那你走哪条路也都无所谓了，”猫再次回答。
Why do I begin with this story? For a simple reason: the path we choose at a critical fork in the road has crucial consequences.It matters where we want to go in order to decide which way we go.
为什么要先讲这个故事呢？原因很简单：在这个关键的岔路口上，我们选择的道路将产生至关重要的影响。
Forks in the Road
岔路口
Almost exactly a hundred years ago, the world took a dramatically wrong turn. This was a period of great technological advances, a time of optimism and openness. And yet, instead of using these technological wonders for the betterment of humanity, they were turned toward massive destruction.
约一百年前发生了一个完全错误的转折。那是一个科技飞速进步、乐观开放的时代。但这些科技奇迹并没有给人类带来更多福祉，而是造成了巨大的破坏。
The gates of cooperation were bolted shut.
合作之门就这样关闭了。
Because of this wrong turn, the world went through three decades of carnage, chaos, and calamity. But then something changed.
这个错误的转折开启了三十年的屠杀、混乱和灾难。但最后发生了变化。
Seventy years ago, in 1944, the world faced another fork in the road. This time, it chose the right path. It was the original “multilateral moment”, which gave birth to institutions of cooperation like the Fund and the Bank.
70年前，也就是1944年，世界再次站在了分岔路上。这次它选择了正确的道路。这便是最初的“多边时刻”，从此诞生了基金组织和世界银行等合作机构。
John Maynard Keyes called it “that bigger thing we are bringing to birth”.
约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯称之为“我们正在创造的更伟大的事”。
This choice has paid off over the decades—with rising prosperity, greater stability, and lower poverty. The IMF has played an essential role: helping to fight crisis after crisis; helping low-income and transition countries gain a foothold in the global economy; and helping to build capacity, strength, and resilience across our entire membership.
过去几十年，这一选择已经带来了回报：各国越来越繁荣，世界越来越稳定，贫困也得以减轻。基金组织发挥了必不可少的作用。它帮助应对各种危机，帮助低收入和转型国家在全球经济中获得一席之地，帮助所有成员国开展能力建设，提高实力和恢复能力。
Today, the Fund continues to respond to conditions on the ground, forcefully and flexibly. Since 2008, we have committed almost $700 billion to countries in need, provided training to all of our members, and technical assistance to 90 percent of them. Over the last several months alone, we provided fresh financial assistance to Ukraine, the Arab transition countries, and the African nations hit by Ebola.
今天，基金组织一如既往地以有力而灵活的方式应对发生的各种情况。2008年以来，我们承诺向有需求的国家提供近7000亿美元的贷款，向所有成员国提供培训，并向90%的成员国提供技术援助。仅几个月前，我们刚刚向乌克兰、阿拉伯转型国家以及受埃博拉病毒影响的非洲国家提供了资金援助。
Seventy years after Bretton Woods, the international community stands at another fork in the road. The tried-and-true modes of cooperation seem to be fraying around the edges. The sustainability of the global economic engine itself is increasingly being questioned.
布雷顿森林会议召开70年后，国际社会再次站在了岔路口上。原本行之有效的合作方式似乎开始分崩离析。全球经济动力可持续性本身越来越为人质疑。
Can it really deliver the jobs, the incomes, the better living standards that people aspire to?
这种方式真的能像人们希望的那样创造就业，提高收入，改善生活水平？
There are three key collective choices to be made:
我们要共同做出三个主要选择：
First, how do we achieve the growth and jobs needed to advance prosperity and ensure social harmony? I would call this the choice between acceleration and stagnation.
第一，我们如何实现促进繁荣和确保社会和谐所必需的增长和就业？我把这称为加速与停滞之间的抉择。
Second, how do we make this interconnected world a more inclusive, safer place for all of us to thrive? This is the choice between stability and fragility.
第二，我们如何使这个互联的世界更包容、更安全，使我们都能繁荣发展？这是稳定与脆弱之间的选择。
Third, how do we strengthen cooperation and multilateralism, instead of isolationism and insularity? This is the choice between solidarity and seclusion.
第三，我们如何加强合作和多边主义，而不是加剧隔离和狭隘？这是团结与闭塞之间的选择。
Our future hinges on our choices.
今天的选择决定了明天的命运。
1. Acceleration or stagnation
1、加速或停滞
Let me start with the first and most basic choice of all—acceleration or stagnation. The prospects for growth and jobs. When we look down the road, we all know that there are huge obstacles in our path.
我先讲一下第一个也是大家面临的最基本的选择——加速或停滞，也就是增长和就业的前景。展望前路，我们会发现将有重重障碍。
We experience unprecedented demographic change, as the workforce in many of the world’s most dynamic economies—both advanced and emerging—enters their twilight years. In less than a decade, the over-65s will outnumber the under-5s—for the first time ever.
我们经历了前所未有的人口变化，许多最有活力的经济体（既包括先进经济体也包括新兴经济体）进入劳动力衰退期。在不到十年的时间里，65岁以上人口将首次超过5岁以下人口。
There has been a staggering rise in inequality—7 out of 10 people in the world today live in countries where inequality has increased over the last three decades. And yet, we know that excessive inequality saps growth, inhibits inclusion, and undermines trust and social capital.
不平等现象显著加剧，今天每10个人中有7个人所在的国度，过去三十年来经历了越来越严重的不平等现象。然而，我们知道过度不平等会妨碍增长，损害包容性，破坏信任和社会资本。
And again, we live in a period of dramatic innovation, with all its potential. But the digital revolution is not job-intensive, and it could contribute to further inequalities.
另外，我们生活在一个快速创新、充满巨大潜力的时代。但数字革命不会创造太多就业机会，反而加剧了不平等现象。
If we are not careful, the ghosts of the 19th century will haunt the 21st century.
如果我们不多加小心，19世纪的阴影将笼罩21世纪。
Think also of the ecological carnage that comes with a rapidly warming planet. We all know the stark facts—the 12 warmest years on record have occurred in the last 17 years. The incidence of weather-related disasters has increased threefold since the 1960s. By 2030, almost half of the world’s population will live in regions of high water stress or shortage.
此外，全球快速变暖对生态环境造成了重大破坏。我们都知道这个残酷的现实——历史上温度最高的12个年份都出现在过去17年里。20世纪60年代以来，与天气相关的灾难性事件增加到过去的三倍。到2030年，世界约一半人口将生活在供水压力大或极度缺水的地区。
But the threats to growth do not just come from the future, they assail us from the past.
但是威胁增长的因素不光来自未来，它们从过去就困扰着我们。
What do I mean? I mean that it is taking a very long time for the global economy to climb out of the hole dug by the Great Recession. We expect growth of only 3.3 percent this year, and still under 4 percent next year.
这是什么意思呢？我是说全球经济要经过很长一段时间才能摆脱“大衰退”造成的困境。我们预计今年的增长率只有3.3%，明年也不到4%。
Of even more concern: we are stuck in a painful jobs crisis. 200 million people around the world are looking for work today—if the unemployed formed their own country, it would be the fifth largest in the world. In some regions—southern Europe and North Africa—youth unemployment is now a chronic social problem, leading to widespread disenchantment and disengagement.
更令人担忧的是，我们深陷严重的就业危机。今天，全世界还有2亿人正在找工作。如果失业人口自成一国，那将成为世界第五大国。目前在南欧和北非等地区，年青人失业是一个长期的社会问题，许多人梦想破坏，与社会脱节。
As Dostoyevsky once put it, “deprived of meaningful work, men and women lose their reason for existence”.
正如陀思妥耶夫斯基所言，“如果不从事有意义的工作，人们就失去了存在的理由”。
All told, we risk getting stuck in a “new mediocre” of poor growth and paltry job creation. To overcome it, we need “new momentum” on the policy front.
总而言之，我们可能陷入经济增长疲软、就业创造不足的“新平庸”状态。对此，要在政策方面形成“新势头”予以克服。
On the demand side, monetary policy should certainly continue to support the recovery—and with careful attention to potential spillovers and spillbacks. Fiscal policy must be customized to country circumstances—and we must not give up the gains that have accrued in recent years. At the same time, fiscal policy must be as growth- and jobs-friendly as possible.
在需求方面，货币政策无疑应继续支持复苏，我们要密切注意潜在的溢出和溢回效应。财政政策必须根据各国具体情况而定，我们不能放弃这几年积累的成果。同时，财政政策必须尽可能的促进增长和就业。
On the supply side, we need movement across many dimensions. Opening up cozy monopolies in service industries. Boosting infrastructure investment. Improving educational opportunities, financial inclusion, and the business environment—especially in many emerging markets and low-income countries. Using fiscal instruments—like carbon pricing—both to help make energy use more efficient and to encourage people to make green choices.
在供给方面，我们要多方面行动起来：打破服务业的垄断；促进基础设施投资；改善教育机会、金融服务普及性和商业环境，特别是在许多新兴市场和低收入国家。采用碳定价等财政工具，既帮助提高能源使用效率，又鼓励人们保护环境。
These are not new insights, but action in the past has often lacked. This time the challenge is for real. We must aim higher, try harder, and work better together to achieve higher growth outcomes.
这些并不是什么新的想法，只是以往通常缺乏行动。面对当下切实的挑战，我们要志存高远，奋发图强，加强合作，实现更高的增长。
We also need to make the job market more inclusive. This means active labor market policies and training programs to help young people. It means more family-friendly policies like affordable child-care and flexible working arrangements to entice more women into the workforce.
我们还要使就业市场更具包容性。这意味着要采取积极的劳动力市场政策和培训计划帮助年青人，意味着要采取更有利于家庭的政策，如实惠的保育安排和灵活的工作安排，吸引更多妇女加入到劳动力大军中来。
Remember, an estimated 865 million women around the world are being held back. Yet we know that enabling women to participate on an equal footing with men is an economic game-changer.
我们要记住，全世界约8.65亿妇女没有参与劳动力市场。我们都知道，使女性像男性一样平等参与，是经济活动的变革性因素。
The IMF stands ready to help our members with this agenda—offering country-specific advice on the reforms needed to make growth more sustainable, job-rich, and inclusive. That’s what we are here for.
基金组织已做好准备帮助成员国实施这项议程。它将针对各国具体情况，提出必要的具体改革建议，促进更可持续、创造更多就业以及包容性更强的增长。