昨天，我们开车经过了美丽的广州歌剧院，让我想起过去。我是一九八四年第一次来中国。现在的变化真大。那时，中国一九七八年实行的改革开放政策刚刚开始有了效果。我当时无法想象一家外国公司能参加广州歌剧院的设计。这是个非常有影响的建筑。澳大利亚马歇尔戴公司（Marshall Day）为广州歌剧院做声学设计。这是中国三十年来巨大变化的标志。过去是文革时期封闭的中国，现在是二十一世纪开放的中国。
Yesterday, driving into Guangzhou and past the strikingly beautiful new Opera House, I was reminded of how much China has changed since I first came here in 1984. At that time, just as the China’s economic reform and open door policies of 1978 were starting to take effect, it was unthinkable that a foreign company could play a part in designing such an important and cutting-edge building in China. The Opera House, whose acoustics were designed by Australian firm Marshall Day, is a symbol of how far China has come in just 30 years, from the inward looking China of the Cultural Revolution, to the outward looking China of the 21st century.

三十年前，大多数观察家不相信中国能进行大规模的经济改革。可是事实证明，他们错了。今天，我要和大家讲讲中国过去三十年的经济增长，还有今后三十年，经济增长模式变了，中国会怎么样。如果我们觉得过去三十年的变化很大，以后的变化会更大。然后，我想谈谈这对澳中未来经济关系的影响。我的想法是中国二点零。还有澳大利亚-中国二点零。
30 years ago, most China watchers were skeptical about China’s capacity for large scale economic reform. But China has proven the skeptics wrong. My purpose today is not just to reflect on the last 30 years of China’s economic growth but also to reflect on the next 30 – as China changes its growth model for the future. Because if we think the changes of the last 30 years have been dramatic, this I believe is only a foretaste of what is to come. And then I want to reflect on what this means for the future of the Australia-China economic relationship. It’s what I call China 2.0. It’s what I call Australia-China 2.0.

数字能说明中国取得的成就。一九八零年以来，中国的实际GDP年均增长百分之十。中国人均GDP从一九八零年的二百零五美元增长到今天的四千三百八十二美元。中国在一九八一年有百分之八十四的贫困人口，而现在,只有百分之二十。近五亿人摆脱了贫困。这很了不起。
The figures tell the story so far. Since 1980, China’s real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 10%. This has seen China’s per capita GDP grow from US$205 in 1980 to US$4,382 (in nominal terms) today. The share of China’s population living below the poverty line of $1.25 per day has fallen from 84 per cent in 1981 to 20 per cent today. Around 500 million people have been lifted out of poverty. By world standards, this is a truly remarkable achievement.

不到三十年的时间，中国从贫穷、封闭、农业为主的经济变成了富裕、国际化的城市经济。中国过去三十年的经济成就主要是依靠充足的廉价劳动力，这是中国最大的竞争优势。中国的制造业发展很快，越来越多的农民工到珠三角、长三角等制造业中心地区工作。
Within thirty years China has transformed itself from an impoverished, isolated and mostly agrarian economy to the increasingly wealthy, internationalized and urban economy we see today. China’s economic achievements over the last thirty years have been driven by its biggest competitive advantage, an abundant supply of low-cost labour. Year after year, we see more and more rural migrants from China’s countryside moving to its manufacturing hubs like the Pearl and Yangtze River deltas to participate in China’s booming manufacturing sector.

一九八零年，中国的城市化率,只有百分之十九。五个中国人里只有不到一个住在城市。二零一零年，城市化率是百分之四十七。换句话说，过去三十年中国的城市人口增加了四点四六亿。
In 1980, China’s rate of urbanization was only 19 per cent. Fewer than 1 in 5 Chinese citizens lived in cities. By 2010, this had increased to 47 per cent. In other words, China’s urban population has increased by 446 million over the past 30 years.

这段时间，中国是高储蓄、低消费，从而有能力投资城市基础设施，发展生产力。一九八二年居民消费占GDP百分之四十八，二零零九年只占百分之三十四。储蓄从一九八二年占GDP百分之三十六相应增加到二零零九年的百分之五十三。
Over this time, China has also been able to rely on its high savings and low household-consumption rates to fund investment in urban infrastructure and productive capacity. Household consumption as a percentage of GDP in China fell from 48.9 per cent in 1982 to just 34.9 per cent in 2009. Correspondingly, China’s gross savings as a percentage of GDP increased from 36.3 per cent in 1982 to 53.6 per cent in 2009.

因此，过去三十年，中国经济发生了巨大的转变，中国经济的国际影响力也发生了改变。
These radical economic transformations over the last three decades have also resulted in the transformation of China’s economic significance.

中国在世界上的经济规模
China’s Global Economic Size

首先我要谈到一些经济数据。我不想说得太专业，但是这些数据比较重要，它们可以说明中国目前的经济状况。
I want to first raise a few numbers. While I don’t want to get too technical, these are numbers which are important in highlighting the current state of China’s economy.

中国现在是世界第二大经济体。去年，中国GDP增长约百分之十点三，达到, 五点九万亿美元。国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测中国经济到二零一六年会再翻一番，GDP超过十一点二万亿美元。尽管中国经济还是比美国规模小，但是差距在快速缩小。要知道,在一九八零年,中国的经济规模只有美国的百分之七点三。至于中国经济总量什么时候, 超过美国，现在有争论。但是按照现在的趋势，中国很可能在本世纪的第三个十年之前, 成为最大的经济体。这个没有争论。
China now stands tall as the second-largest economy in the world. Last year, China’s GDP grew by around 10.3 per cent to reach US$5.9 trillion. By 2016, the IMF predicts that China’s economy will almost double again in size, with a forecast GDP of over US$11.2 trillion. While this will still be well short of the size of the US economy (forecast GDP of US$18.8 trillion in 2016), China has closed the gap very fast. Remember, in 1980, China’s GDP was just 7.3 per cent the size of the US economy. When China actually overtakes the US economy in terms of absolute size is hotly debated. But what isn’t in debate is that on current projections, China’s economy is likely to be the largest in the world before the end of the third decade of this century.

中国的很多经济指标，都远远超过了,其他国家。二零一零年，中国是世界最大货物贸易出口国，占全球货物出口的，百分之十点四，领先美国和德国。此外，二零一零年，中国是第二大货物贸易进口国，仅次于美国。中国是全球最大的汽车市场。二零一零年，中国汽车销量一千八百万辆，同比增长百分之三十二。更加值得注意的是，二零一零年，中国是商业服务第四大出口国，出口额一千七百亿美元，同比增长百分之三十二。同时也是商业服务第三大进口国，进口额一千九百二十亿美元，同比增长百分之二十二。中国有八个城市人口超过一千万，九十三个城市人口超过五百万。到二零二零年，中国将有六个省的GDP超过一万亿美元，相当于六个俄罗斯(或者西班牙或加拿大)。
On a significant number of measures, China already stands well above the rest. In 2010, China was the world’s largest merchandise exporter (US$1,578bn) with a 10.4 per cent share of world merchandise exports, ahead of the US (US$1,278bn) and Germany (US$1.269bn). China was the world’s second-largest merchandise importer in 2010 (US$1,395bn) behind the US (US$1,968bn). China is also home to the world’s largest automotive market. In 2010, 18 million automobiles were sold in the Chinese market, an increase of 32 per cent year on year. But perhaps even more significant, and a harbinger of things to come, is that in 2010 China was the fourth-largest exporter of commercial services – worth US$170bn, a 32 per cent year-on-year increase compared with 2009. As well, it was the third-largest importer of commercial services at US$192bn; a 22 per cent increase year-on-year. Eight Chinese cities have a population of more than 10 million, and 93 have more than 5 million. By 2020, China will have six provinces with an annual GDP of more than US$1 trillion, equal to six countries the size of Russia (or Spain or Canada).

中国的崛起依赖大量资源。二零零九年，中国超过美国成为最大能源消费国。预计中国能源年均需求量在二零零八和二零三五年间,会上升百分之七十五。中国很多矿石资源的消费量也是世界第一。包括铝、铜、镍、锌、铅、锡、铁矿石,和煤，特别是铁矿石和煤的需求很大。二零零九年，中国消费近三十二亿吨煤。澳大利亚是最大的, 煤出口国，二零零九年出口二点七五亿吨，仅仅相当于中国需求的百分之十。去年，中国也是世界第一大钢材消费国，占全球，百分之四十六。到二零一六年，中国粗钢消费量将接近十亿吨，占预计全球消费的百分之五十二，约为预计第二大消费国印度的九倍。这些经济数字让人惊叹，向我们展现一幅宏大的蓝图。
China’s emergence has, of course, been massively resource intensive. In 2009, China overtook the US to become the world’s largest energy consumer. Between 2008 and 2035, China’s per year energy demand is forecast to increase by 75 per cent (International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010). On the mineral resource side, China is also in first place on many fronts. It is now the world’s largest consumer of aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, tin, iron ore and coal. China’s appetite for steel and coal is particularly striking. In 2009, China consumed around 3.2 billion tonnes of coal domestically. To put this into perspective, Australia, the world’s largest exporter of coal, exported 275 million tonnes of coal in 2009, less than 10 per cent of what China consumed. Last year, China was the world’s largest user of steel, around 46 per cent of global consumption. By 2016, China’s crude steel consumption is forecast to total just under 1 billion tonnes, over 52 per cent of forecast world consumption and almost nine times the volume of the world’s second largest forecast consumer, India. These numbers are staggering and they paint a big strategic picture.

现在我要谈到一个新的 – 但是有直接关系的题目，那就是中国改变增长模式。
I want to now discuss a new topic, but one which follows naturally from what I’ve just discussed – that is China’s Changing Growth Model

转向国内消费
The Shift to Domestic Consumption

到现在为止，中国资本密集型出口拉动增长的模式，运行的不错。但是导致了一些不平衡，也引起了中国政府的注意。
China’s capital intensive export led growth model has served it very well. But it has also led to the creation of a number of imbalances which the Chinese Government rightly recognises as requiring attention.

首先是社会上的不平等。中国几亿人口脱贫、人均GDP快速增长，这些努力值得称赞。但是，并不是所有人都分享到了经济增长的好处。经济学家指出，衡量收入是否平等的基尼系数从上世纪八十年代中期的零点三，上升到现在的零点四七。众所周知，上世纪八十年代末以来，城市收入最高的十分之一的人口与收入最低的十分之一的差距在扩大，从七倍扩大到二十多倍。城市人均收入是农村的三倍还要多。
The first of these is social inequality. China’s efforts to raise hundreds of millions of its citizens out of poverty rapidly increasing the per capita GDP of its citizens are impressive and commendable. However, the benefits of China’s massive growth have not been shared by all. Economists have noted that the Gini coefficient – a measure of overall income inequality – has increased from around 0.3 in the mid-1980s to 0.47 now. Since the late 1980s, the gap in urban income between the top 10 per cent and the bottom 10 per cent has widened from seven times to more than 20 times. Average per capita income is now more than three times that of rural areas.

澳大利亚欢迎中国政府提出的一系列，解决不平等问题的目标。其中有包括全部农村居民和三点五七亿城市居民的养老金计划，每年最低工资增长不低于百分之十三，还有，为低收入家庭建三千六百万套保障房。政府也会继续增加大教育投资，同时扩大医疗体系。这些政策，有助于缓解中国收入不平等的问题。居民也能降低储蓄，因为社会福利，变好了。收入分配、保障房、医疗和低收入人群工资的改善，以及城市中产阶级的扩大，有助于中国向消费拉动增长模式的转变。
Australia warmly welcomes the Chinese Government’s announcement of a range of key targets to tackle this inequality. Among them are: pension schemes to cover all rural residents and 357 million urban residents; an increase in the minimum wage by no less than 13 per cent per year; and in housing, the construction and renovation of 36 million apartments for low-income families. Education spending will remain a priority, while the pharmaceuticals and healthcare system will be broadened to cover more of the population. These policies will help to ease the problems of income inequality in China. But they will also reduce the need for China’s citizens to maintain such a high rate of saving to compensate for inadequacies in the social-welfare system. Efforts to improve China’s system of income redistribution, access to social housing and health care and the wages of China’s lowest-income earners, coupled with the rapid growth in the size of China’s urban middle class, will certainly assist China to make the transition towards a consumption-led model of growth.

随着经济高速发展，中国面对的另一个挑战就是环境成本。作为“世界工厂”，中国是钢和铝等能源密集型商品的净出口国。根据耶鲁大学和哥伦比亚大学编的二零一零年环境绩效指数，综合考虑气候变化、空气污染、获取水资源等环境政策目标，中国排在全球第一百二十一位。
Another challenge China faces as a consequence of its phenomenal economic growth has been the environmental cost. China’s emergence as the ‘world factory’ has seen it become a net exporter of energy intensive goods such as steel and aluminium. According to the 2010 Environmental Performance Index compiled by Yale University and Columbia University, China ranks 121st internationally for its performance against environmental policy goals such as climate change, air pollution and water access.

中国政府为此提出了以下计划：首先非化石能源占一次能源消费比重，提高到百分之十一点四。其次，单位GDP能耗降低百分之十六。再次，单位GDP二氧化碳排放降低百分之十七。最后，单位工业增加值用水量降低百分之三十。同时，中国政府也在提高核电和天然气发电所占比例。核电和天然气发电的碳排放比煤炭发电低。这些政策有助于中国转向可持续增长道路，有助于全球应对气候变化。
To address these problems, the Chinese Government has announced far-reaching plans: to increase the share of non-fossil fuels in China’s energy mix to 11.4 per cent of primary energy consumption; to cut energy consumption per unit of GDP by 16 per cent; to cut carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP by 17 per cent; and to reduce water consumption per unit of value-added industrial output by 30 per cent. These policies complement existing efforts by the Chinese Government to increase the contribution to its energy mix of nuclear and gas-fired power generation, which are less carbon-intensive than coal. These will help underpin China’s efforts to transition China towards a more sustainable growth path – and to contribute to the global response to climate change.

十二五规划中提出中国今后五年GDP增长目标是百分之七，可能比较保守，因为去年增长了百分之十点三。更重要的是，这表明中国愿意接受比较低的经济增长率，使经济更加平衡、更加平等、更加可持续。换句话说，中国现在更重视增长的质量，而不就是增长的数量。
China’s 7 per cent GDP growth target over the next five years, announced as part of the 12th 5-year plan, is probably on the conservative side. For example, Chinese GDP growth was 10.3 per cent last year. But importantly, it shows that China is willing to accept a lower rate of growth in order to rebalance its economy, alleviate inequalities and improve sustainability. In other words, China is now looking to prioritise the quality of growth over the quantity of growth.

中国在改变增长模式的过程中，政府也重视研发的投入。中国研发支出占GDP的比例只有约百分之一点四，仍然较低，低于全球研发支出百分之一点九的水平。十二五规划中，中国政府的目标是把研发支出提高到GDP的百分之二点二。同时把每年每万人口的，发明专利拥有量，提高到三点三件。此外，政府还要鼓励海外研究人员回国工作，同时引进两千名，外国专家，在国家实验室工作。尽管中国人均研发支出，还比较低，但是研发支出总量已经超过了很多国家。中国的研发支出总量已经超过了德国、韩国和英国等发达经济体。
In the course of it’s changing growth model, China has sustained a focus on R&D investment. China’s R&D spending as a share of GDP is still relatively low – around 1.4 per cent, well below global R&D spending of 1.9 per cent. As part of the 12th five-year plan, the Chinese Government is seeking to boost expenditure on research and development to 2.2 per cent GDP. It is also targeting the registration of 3.3 patents per annum for each 10,000 head of population. This is on top of existing efforts to encourage internationally-based Chinese researchers to return to China and to recruit 2,000 foreign experts to work in national laboratories. While China’s R&D expenditure per capita remains low, its total spending on R&D is eclipsing many countries. China’s gross domestic expenditure on R&D is already far ahead of advanced economies like Germany, the Republic of Korea and the United Kingdom.

中国还有一个新的经济现象，那就是中国新城市的崛起：那是一个新的增长动力。
The Rise of New Chinese cities: A New Power of Growth

我刚才说过, 中国新的经济增长不仅来源于超级城市。我刚才说过, 到二零二零年，中国将有六个省的GDP超过一万亿美元，相当于六个俄罗斯 (或西班牙，或加拿大)。我刚才也说过, 中国有八个城市人口超过一千万。我刚才说过, 中国有九十三个城市人口超过五百万。
As noted above, China’s new economic growth is not simply being driven out of China’s mega cities. I repeat - by 2020, China will have six provinces with an annual GDP of more than US$1 trillion, equal to six countries the size of Russia (or Spain or Canada). I repeat - eight Chinese cities have a population of more than 10 million. I repeat - 93 have more than 5 million.

我看到了广州等东部沿海城市的快速发展。现在我也看到内陆二线城市的快速发展。经济学人信息部最近分析了中国的二十大新兴城市，在接下来的十年，这些城市的人口将增加百分之二十七。分析还发现， 二零零九年中国二十个最富有城市的人均收入比二十大新兴城市高出百分之四十二。但是，预计到二零二零年这个差距会缩小到只有百分之十五。
I have witnessed personally the extraordinary growth in eastern seaboard cities like Guangzhou, and am now seeing the incredible pace of development in second tier cities in China’s booming inland provinces. The Economic Intelligence Unit recently undertook an analysis of China’s top twenty emerging cities and found that over the next decade, the population of these cities will grow by 27 per cent. It also found that in 2009, average incomes in China’s twenty richest cities were 42 per cent higher than the top twenty emerging cities. By 2020, that gap is forecast to fall to just 15 per cent.

中国内陆地区的经济增长正在超过沿海地区。上海、北京、广东等东部沿海发达地区， 在九十年代中期增速远高于百分之十，在本世纪前十年中期也是一样；而现在，增速已经比较接近百分之十，这些大城市仍然非常重要。同时，四川、内蒙古、辽宁、湖南、重庆这些欠发达的省市，过去五年的年增长速度已经在百分之十，和百分之十五之间。内蒙古的增长速度已经接近百分之二十。
China is entering a period where economic growth in inland regions is overtaking that of coastal regions. While the eastern seaboard growth engines like Shanghai, Beijing and Guangdong grew at rates well in excess of 10 per cent during the mid 1990s and again during the mid 2000s, growth rates in these provinces/municipalities are now much closer to 10 per cent. These large cities will retain their importance. In comparison, lesser-developed provinces like Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hunan and Chongqing have been growing at between 10 and 15 per cent annually over the past five years. In the case of Inner Mongolia, growth has been closer to 20 per cent.

经济增长向内陆地区转移，表明中国政府采取新措施，激励企业在内陆省份投资建厂。在省级的层面上，有广东的"双转移"政策。制造商也在寻找比东部沿海地区更低的劳动和用地成本。其它的中心区就有了机会。重庆就是个很好的例子。重庆市和一个省差不多大，人口三千万。二零零零年，人均GDP是六百二十三美元，是全国平均水平的百分之六十六。现在，重庆人均GDP是四千零四十九美元，是全国平均水平的百分之九十二。
This shifting of growth to inland regions reflects the Chinese Government’s new incentives for industry to invest and establish operations in China’s inland provinces. These efforts are replicated at a provincial level here in Guangdong by the Double Transfer policy. Manufacturers are also seeking alternatives to the rising costs of labour and land on the eastern seaboard. This development has opened up opportunities for other centres. Chongqing is one impressive example. A province-sized “city” with a population of 30 million, Chongqing’s per capita GDP was US$623 in 2000, or 66 per cent of national average. It’s now US$4,049 or 92 per cent of national average ofUS$4,382.

随着交通、基础设施、物流条件变得更好，中国新兴城市的竞争力也变强了。中国已经有七千公里的高铁网络，到二零二零年将增加到一万六千公里。重庆本来到上海要飞一千四百公里，随着高铁网络的发展，以后不到半天就能从沿海地区到重庆。武广高铁是全世界最快的火车线路，把广州和二线城市武汉和长沙连接起来。
The competitiveness of China’s emerging cities will be boosted by improvements in transport infrastructure and logistic. China is already well-serviced by a 7,000 km high-speed rail network, which will increase to 16,000 by 2020. As the high-speed network develops, even cities like Chongqing, 1,400 km by air from Shanghai will be accessible from the coast within half a day. China’s flagship high-speed rail line, also the world’s fastest train service, connects Guangzhou with the fast-growing second-tier cities of Wuhan and Changsha.

对澳大利亚经济意味着什么
Implications for the Australian Economy

总的来说，中国经济变化很快，不仅是总量，还有增长的结构。
• 中国很快将成为世界最大的经济体。
• 过去三十年的增长模式，正在转变为，以消费为基础，由国内社保改革支撑的，一种增长模式。
• 由于快速的城市化，以及相应产生的内需，制造业会保持强健。
• 而服务业，进口和出口，增长都很快。
• 环境制约因素出现，为清洁能源产品和服务创造了新的市场。
• 研发投入也使中国迅速提升价值链。
• 相当一部分增长来源于中国的“二线”城市和新兴省份。
In summary, the Chinese economy is changing rapidly, not only in terms of its absolute size – but also in terms of the composition of its growth.
• China will soon become the world’s largest economy.
• Its growth model of the last 30 years (driven by labour intensive manufacturing exports) is changing to one based on domestic consumption, underpinned in part by domestic social security reform.
• Manufacturing will remain strong on the back of continuing rapid urbanisation and associated domestic demand.
• But the services sector, including imports and exports, is growing rapidly.
• Environmental constraints are emerging – creating new markets for clean energy goods and services.
• R&D investment is also moving China rapidly up the value chain, and
• A necessary proportion of the above growth is by and large out of China’s so-called ‘second tier’ cities and emerging provinces.

这些因素也改变着中国与其他国家经济交往的模式。这些对澳大利亚经济意味着什么呢？
These economic ‘change drivers’ are also changing the pattern of China’s economic engagement with the rest of the world. So what does all this mean for the Australian economy.

澳大利亚是亚洲第四大经济体。澳大利亚是世界第十三大经济体。澳大利亚是一个能源大国。我们是世界上第九大能源生产国，能源净出口量约占产量的三分之二。从一九八九年以来，澳大利亚的能源出口平均每年增加百分之十。澳大利亚还有成熟的农业、制造业和服务业。和中国一样，澳大利亚有许多世界一流大学。澳大利亚的金融业发展强健，管理先进、监管体系完备，受全球金融危机的影响很小。我们有全球第四大基金管理业。
Australia is the 4th largest economy in Asia. Australia is the 13th largest economy in the world. Australia is an energy superpower. We are the world’s ninth largest energy producer and with net energy exports accounting for around two-thirds of energy we produce. Since 1988-89, the value of Australia’s energy export has increased by an average of 10 per cent per year. Australia also has sophisticated agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors. Australia also has as many world class universities as China. Australia’s financial services sector is strong, robust, well managed and well regulated – and survived the Global Financial Crisis intact. We have the 4th largest funds management industry in the world.

澳大利亚既能满足中国传统的经济需求，也能满足经济转型带来的需求。过去四十年来，我们向中国供应能源和资源，是可靠的供应国。将来这还会是澳中经济交往的一个重要部分。
Australia is well positioned to meet China’s traditional economy needs as well as those now generated by the great economic transformation now underway. For forty years we have been reliable suppliers of China’s energy and resource needs and this will remain a critical part of our future economic engagement with China.

据麦肯锡全球研究院预测，在接下来的十五年里，中国城市会建五万座摩天大楼。这种大规模的城市化，支持着民用建筑、商用建筑、交通基础设施和电网领域的大量投资。它也增加了城市消费者对汽车和家用电器的需求。这些投资需要大量的铁矿石、铜、锌、镍和铝， 这将会支撑资源繁荣。在未来十年，中国对钢的需求很可能增加百分之四十，对能源的需求也会有很大增长。这些都预示着澳中两国，在矿产和燃料领域的传统关系，有着很好的未来。去年，澳大利亚对中国的矿产和燃料出口，占全部商品出口的百分之八十多。澳大利亚能够满足中国将来的各类能源需求。
For example, the McKinsey Global Institute, the business and economics research arm of McKinsey and Co, estimates that over the next 15 years, up to 50,000 new skyscrapers will be needed in China’s cities. This mass urban migration is supporting large-scale investment in new housing, commercial buildings, transport infrastructure and electricity networks. It is also driving demand among urban consumers for cars and appliances. The sheer amount of iron ore, copper, zinc, nickel and aluminium needed to sustain this investment will keep underpinning the resources boom. China’s demand for steel is likely to grow by almost 40 per cent in the next 10 years and there will be similarly strong growth in energy demand. All this bodes well for the future of Australia’s traditional relationship with China in minerals and fuels, which accounted for over 80 per cent of Australia’s merchandise exports to China last year. Australia is well-placed to meet the range of China’s future energy needs.

除了矿产和燃料， 澳大利亚可以为中国提供的东西还很多。中国城市人口增长很快，平均收入是农村人口的三倍。他们需要更成熟的服务，如教育、银行、金融和理财服务、建筑和设计、绿色科技、还有旅游。澳中两国可以在这些领域进一步合作， 这对双方都有好处。
But Australia has more to offer China than just minerals and fuels, as important as this may be. China's rapidly urbanising population – whose income is on average 3 times that of rural areas – is demanding more sophisticated services, in areas such as in education services, banking, financial and wealth management services, architecture and design, green technologies, as well as tourism. These are areas where further collaboration between Australia and China can bring great mutual benefit.

例如，中国有很好的教育系统。不过，中国国内的教育系统需要扩展来满足需求。中国有十三亿人口， 但目前仅有两千所高校。中国有越来越多的学生去国外留学，教育资源太少仍然是一个主要原因。二零一零年，中国有近三十万名学生出国留学，比上一年增加了五万多。澳大利亚的学校在世界上排名较高，在中国名声很不错。中国是澳大利亚最大的留学生来源国。 在二零一零年，有十三万名中国学生在澳大利亚求学。
For example, China has an excellent education system. However, China’s domestic education system struggles to expand to meet demand. Currently there are only 2,000 Chinese institutions of higher education shared by a population of 1.3 billion people. The shortage of places remains one of the key reasons why an increasing number of Chinese students are seeking high quality education overseas. In 2010, a total of 284,700 Chinese went to study abroad, an increase of 55,400 over last year. Australian education enjoys a good reputation among Chinese students in terms of the global university rankings and it is not surprising that China is Australia’s largest source of overseas students with 167,000 enrolments Australian education institutions in 2010.

两国另一个合作领域是金融服务。澳大利亚的金融业，对澳大利亚的国民产出、就业和经济增长贡献最大。它带来了百分之十点八的实际附加值总额，价值一千二百一十亿澳元。澳大利亚在全球金融危机后仍然健康运转。这是因为澳大利亚有着全世界运行最好的，监管系统。澳大利亚管理的竞争基金规模世界排名第四。基金管理业自一九九五年来增长了五倍， 年增长率达百分之十二， 现在管理着价值一点七万亿澳元的基金。澳大利亚的金融服务公司，在中国的银行、保险、基金管理、证券和咨询业很活跃。 更多国际金融服务公司来到中国，会使中国的金融服务市场会更加成熟、更加国际化。
Another area for collaboration is in financial services. Australia financial sector is the largest contributor to Australia’s national output, employment and economic growth, generating 10.8 per cent or A$121bn of real gross value added. Australia emerged from the GFC in robust good health, underpinned by a world best practice regulatory system. Australia is home to the world’s fourth largest pool of contestable funds under management. Funds management sector has grown five-fold since 1995, at a compound annual growth rate of 12 per cent, and now has A$1.7 trillion in funds under management. Australian financial service providers are already active in China in banking, insurance, funds management, securities and consultancies. Further involvement by global financial services companies will help China to increase the sophistication of and internationalise its own financial services market.

建筑和设计，是澳大利亚另一个擅长的领域。在减少建筑碳足迹方面，我们有世界领先的创新技术和设计。中国是亚洲地区城市化最快的国家。这为澳大利亚的公司提供了很好的机会，在很多领域为中国提供帮助和咨询，包括可持续的建筑方面。澳大利亚绿色建筑协会正与中国绿色建筑委员会合作。双方于二零零八年签署了谅解备忘录。备忘录主要关注双方如何通过进一步合作， 加快中国的绿色建筑事业发展，造福两国的经济、环境和社会。这对双方都有长久的益处，进一步推动可持续建筑的发展。澳大利亚在绿色建筑技术和系统上世界领先,而中国在建造生态城市上世界领先。很明显，双方有合作的优势。
Architectural and design is another area where Australia does well. We are a world leader in innovative technology and designs that reduce the carbon footprint building. China is the most rapidly urbanising country in the most rapidly urbanising region in Asia. There are great opportunities for Australian companies to provide assistance and mentorship in many areas, including sustainable building. The Green Building Council of Australia is working with the China Green Building Council under a MOU signed in 2008 focused on investigating how enhanced co-operation could accelerate the uptake of green buildings in China for the economic, environmental and social benefit of both countries. This will have lasting benefits for both countries long into the future, providing leadership in transforming the built environment towards sustainability. Australia is a world leader in green building technologies and systems. China is a world leader in developing ecocities. The synergies are clear.

澳中两国还在绿色技术上有着良好的合作。几十年来，中国经济增长和城市化十分迅速， 然而环境却变差了。估计每年，中国的环境破坏要损失百分之八的GDP。相应的，中国环保产业发展很快。但是，在某些领域，技术水平还较低，低于世界标准。澳大利亚的一些环保标准和生物多样性标准是全世界最严格的。澳大利亚人民不接受低标准。我们是世界上最干燥的一个国家。于是，许多公司和研究机构在澳大利亚设计方案，使工业既能顺利运作又有较高的性价比，尽可能减少对环境的影响， 尤其是对珍贵的水资源。
China and Australia can also collaborate well in green technology. Decades of rapid economic growth and urbanisation has had the unfortunate consequence of environmental degradation in China. It is estimated that environmental damage costs up to 8 per cent of China's GDP each year. China's environmental protection industry has developed strongly in response. However, in some areas, the technology levels are low and below international standard. Australia has some of the most stringent environmental protection and biodiversity standards in the world. Australian citizens accept no less. We are also one of the driest countries in the world. In this context, many companies and research institutes have developed solutions and capabilities in Australia to allow industry to operate successfully and cost effectively in a way that minimises environmental impact, including on our precious water resources.

我们不仅仅在国内实施相关方案。澳大利亚的公司已经在帮助中国应对环境的挑战。在湖南省，澳大利亚贸易委员会带领了几组澳大利亚企业实施农村废水处理方案，并对河道污染进行整治。我们的污染评估和环境整治合作研究中心也与中国的伙伴合作，开发性价比高、可持续的技术，帮助中国整治受污染的地点并更好的处理废物。
We are not just delivering solutions domestically. Australian companies are already helping China to deal with its environmental challenges. In Hunan, Austrade is leading clusters of Australian companies to deliver rural waste water treatment solutions and remediation activities to deal with contamination in river-ways. Our Cooperative Research Centre on Contamination Assessment and Remediation of the Environment is also working with partners in China to develop cost effective and sustainable technologies to help China remediate contaminated sites and better manage wastes.

旅游是我们双边关系的另一个增长点。中国正成为世界上一个越来越重要的旅游市场。在二零零零年到二零零九年间，中国的出境旅游人数，从九百二十万人次增加到两千五百多万。中国是澳大利亚第四大入境旅游市场，二零一零年有四十五万人次入境，并于近期超过英国，成为总消费最高的市场。澳大利亚旅游业预测委员会预测，中国到澳大利亚的游客平均每年会增长百分之八点五, 到二零二零年将达到九十万人次左右。为了加深澳中双方旅游业的交往，澳大利亚总理近期见证了双方签署一份新的谅解备忘录。澳中两国的“旅游目的地国家”项目有着十多年的成功合作。在此基础上，备忘录确定了两国新的合作领域。
Tourism is another growth area in our bilateral relations. China is becoming an increasingly important tourism market for the world. Between 2000 and 2009, total outbound travel from China increased from 9.2 million trips to 25.8 million. China is Australia’s 4th largest inbound tourism market, with 453,800 arrivals in 2010 and has recently overtaken the UK to be our number one ranked market for total spend (worth $3.1 billion in 2010). The Tourism Forecasting Committee forecasts that Chinese visitor arrivals to Australia will increase at an average annual rate of 8.5 per cent to reach 897,000 in 2020. To further our engagement with China in tourism, the Prime Minister recently witnessed the signing of a new MOU under which Australia and China will identify new areas of cooperation, building upon over a decade of successful cooperation on the Approved Destination Status program.

在过去三十年中国第一次经济大转型期间，我们一直是中国可靠的伙伴。在中国下一阶段的发展中，我们仍然会是中国可靠的伙伴。澳大利亚是一个杰出、强健、稳定的经济体，并且和中国一样，都是二十国集团的成员。澳大利亚和中国一样，都积极参与本地区的重要机制，包括东亚峰会和亚太经合组织。澳大利亚与中国双边关系很好，在过去四十年中不断变深、变广。两国没有大的双边问题。澳大利亚已经是中国的十大贸易伙伴之一。
Just as we have been a reliable partner in China’s first great economic transformation over the last 30 years, so too are we positioned to be reliable partners in the next phase of China’s growth stages into the mid-century. Australia is a significant, strong, and stable global economy – and with China is a member of the G20. Australia, like China, is deeply engaged with all the great institutes of our region – including the EAS and APEC. Australia has a strong bilateral relationship with China which has deepened and broadened over the last 40 years and there are no significant bilateral problems. Australia is already one of China’s top 10 trading partners.

我们有世界上最开放的投资管理体制之一。到二零一零年底，澳大利亚的外国投资存量是两万亿澳元，其中直接投资存量是四千七百多亿澳元。二零零一年以来，澳大利亚政府仅否决了两笔外国商业投资。其一是壳牌收购伍德赛德， 其二是新加坡证券交易所收购澳大利亚证券交易所。而且这两次否决也隔了十年。我们的产业都不排斥外国投资，只是对某些公司有外国股权的限制。我们欢迎和鼓励外国投资，因为外国投资有利于我们的经济。我们也不断努力，保证澳大利亚有足够的竞争力，吸引外国投资者在澳大利亚做生意，给他们创造机会，取得成功。
And we have one of the most open investment regimes in the world. At the end of 2010, the total stock of foreign investment in Australia was $2 trillion. Of this, the total stock of direct investment (investments involving a controlling stake) was $474 billion. Since 2001, the Australian Government has only rejected two foreign investment proposals in the business sector, Shell’s proposed takeover of Woodside and the Singapore Stock Exchange’s proposed takeover of the Australian Stock Exchange. It’s worth noting that these rejections happened one decade apart. There are no business sectors that are closed off to foreign investment and we only maintain foreign equity limits in a small number of companies (Telstra and Qantas). We welcome and encourage foreign investment because of the benefits it provides our economy and we work hard to ensure that we remain a globally competitive location to do business which offers a wealth of opportunities for businesses to succeed.

澳大利亚是理想的投资目的地。二零一一年全球经济自由度指数就是一个好的证明。华尔街时报，和位于华盛顿的遗产基金会发布的自由度指数，包括商业自由度、贸易壁垒、税负、政府支出、价格稳定、投资开放度、银行效率、产权、腐败和劳动力自由度。我们排名怎么样呢？澳大利亚再次排名第三（仅次于香港和新加坡）。
Australia's reputation as an attractive business destination was confirmed in the 2011 Index of Economic Freedom. The Index — produced by The Wall Street Journal and Washington's Heritage Foundation — ranks countries on 10 measures of economic openness, including business freedom, trade barriers, tax burden, government spending, price stability, investment openness, banking efficiency, property rights, freedom from corruption and labour freedom. How did we fair? Australia was again ranked 3rd overall (behind only Hong Kong and Singapore).

结论
Conclusions

因此，这就是“澳中二点零”的潜力。“澳中二点零” 是定义双方经济交往的一个新词儿。“澳中二点零”认可，中国经济增长模式变化带来的影响，做出预测，并做好准备。“澳中二点零”认可，澳大利亚几十年来都是中国优秀的、可靠的经济伙伴。“澳中二点零”以双方的经济优势为基础。
This, therefore, is the potential strength of ‘Australia – China 2.0’, a new phase of mutual and economic engagement. One which recognizes, anticipates and prepares for the impact of China’s changing economic growth model. One which recognizes Australia’s record of being a significant and reliable economic partner over the decades. One which is based on mutual economic advantage.

我们可以发挥政府的作用——制定合适的政策，确保达成澳中自由贸易协定。但最终还是要看企业。对于澳大利亚来说，这意味着我们的企业界要做好全面准备，应对中国新的经济发展模式带来的影响。这意味着预测未来的趋势。这意味着投入时间和精力。这意味企业要雇用会讲中英双语的澳大利亚人，帮助业务发展。这意味着要主动出击。这意味着不能止步于过去的成绩。更重要的是，这意味着要在这儿，而不是仅在北京，还有全国的二线城市是将来经济增长的重点。
At the government level, we can play our part – getting the policy setting right, ensuring the success of the conclusion of the Australia-China FTA. But ultimately it depends on business. For Australia, it means our corporate community fully geared up for the impact of the new Chinese economic development model. It means being ahead of the curve. It means investing time and effort. It means employing bilingual Australians in the interest of your business. It means being on the front foot. It means not resting on our laurels. Above all, it means being here and not just being in Beijing. Being across the country in the emerging second tier cities of the future, where much of the future growth will occur.

上星期，四百多家澳大利亚公司，在北京有了一个很好的开始。他们是澳大利亚公司董事学会的部分代表，这是多年来最大的一个代表团。但这仅仅是开始。回澳大利亚后，我和贸易部长会到各州的首府去，去讲讲中国二点零是怎么回事。今年下半年，我们还想来中国。我们想带一个贸易投资代表团去一些省份和新兴的中心城市， 去那些会推动中国未来发展的地方。
Over the past week in Beijing we’ve made a good start with 420 company directors representing Australian businesses as part of AICD delegation to China - the largest in years. But it’s only a start. Back in Australia, the Trade Minister and I will be going on the road to state capitals to argue what China 2.0 is all about. And later in the year, we intend to be back, leading a trade and investment mission to some of the provinces and rising urban centres that will drive this country’s future.

对中国的未来，我一直很乐观。对于澳中经济关系的未来， 我也一直很乐观。我相信，“澳中二点零” 会推动双边经济关系的发展。
I have always been an optimist about China’s future. I’ve always been an optimist about the future of the Australia-China economic relationship and ‘Australia-China 2.0’ can be the driver of that future.