尊敬的尼布利特所长，
女士们，先生们：
Dr Robin Niblett,
Ladies and gentlemen,

今天能在英国皇家国际问题研究所这个具有近百年历史、全球知名的国际关系研究机构演讲，我深感荣幸。我对皇研所是未谋其面，先闻其名。20多年前我在美国工作，经常参加一些学术活动，研讨中不时提到的一个专有名词是“皇研所规则”（Chatham House Rule），从中我得知了隔着大西洋的皇研所。来英国后，通过与尼布利特所长等皇研所专家的交流，我对贵所独立思考、深入分析的传统也有了更多了解。
It is my great honour to address Chatham House, an institute with a world reputation and a long history. I first heard about Chatham House more than 20 years ago when I was working in the United States. "Chatham House rule" was often applied in the academic events I attended. Thanks to Dr Niblett and his colleagues, I have learned much more about Chatham House and its proud tradition of independent thinking and profound scholarship since I came to the UK.

今天我演讲的主题是未来中国的发展。刚刚结束的中国全国人大审议通过了 “十二五”规划，这是中国未来五年的发展蓝图。因此，我认为，讲中国未来的发展，最好就是解读一下“十二五”规划，从中管窥中国发展思路和方向。
My topic today is China's future development. To understand the thinking and the direction of China's development for the next 5 years, we need to take a closer look at the 12th Five Year Plan that was adopted at the recent annual parliamentary session in China.

我认为，“十二五”规划释放的发展思路主要就是两点，一是科学发展，二是和平发展。
As far as I can see, the 12th Five-Year Plan boils down into two key terms – "scientific development" and "peaceful development".

关于科学发展，可能一些西方人都不是太理解“科学”这个词，我想再用四个关键词来解释一下，这就是：平衡、包容、全面和绿色。
Some people in the West may be curious about the term 'scientific development'. I think it can be explained in four words: "balanced, inclusive, comprehensive and green development".

说“平衡”，就是说中国经济发展方式要转型，经济结构要调整。当前中国经济发展速度和经济规模均位居世界前列，但中国目前“低价工业化”发展模式正受到严峻挑战，“大而不强、快而不优”的发展现状亟需改变。“十二五”规划中将未来五年中国经济增速目标定为7%，这比改革开放三十年来中国平均年增长10%明显放缓，也略低于上一个五年规划时确定的7.5%的目标。这一“量”的减慢将为“质”的提升留出空间，我们就可以抓住时机促进经济发展方式实现四个重大转变：
"Balanced" means China must upgrade its growth model and economic structure. Being the second largest economy, China may lead the world in growth rate and economic size, yet its low-cost industrialisation model is exhausting its potential. So China must go beyond size and speed to achieve strength and quality. This is why the economy is set to grow by 7% annually in the next 5 years, which is a marked slowdown from the double digit growth over the past 3 decades. This slower quantitative growth will make more room for higher qualitative growth and create conditions for 4 major transitions:

一是从依赖投资和出口拉动的增长方式向消费、投资、出口相协调转变。二是从凭借廉价劳动力优势向创新驱动、内生增长方式转变。三是从传统产业为主向发展战略性新兴产业和现代服务业，形成多元支撑的方式转变。四是从“透支”资源和环境的粗放增长方式向低碳、绿色的发展方式转变。
a move from reliance on investment and export to balanced growth driven by consumption, investment and export;
a shift from low labour cost to home-grown innovation;
a change from traditional industries to emerging strategic industries and modern services;
and an evolution from energy and resources consuming development to low-carbon and green growth.

说“包容”，就是要让每一个中国人生活得更加幸福、更有尊严，使发展成果惠及全体人民。当前，中国国民收入分配中存在居民收入和劳动报酬占GDP比重过低、基尼指数偏高等问题，同时公共服务水平尚未能适应经济发展的步伐。如何迈过所谓的“中等收入陷阱”？“十二五”规划明确提出，我们将大力发展社会事业，保障和改善民生。一是要促进民富，让老百姓“钱袋子”尽快鼓起来，力争用三到五年的时间把城乡居民收入占GDP的比重提高10个百分点。二是加强社会建设，提高公共服务能力。政府要知民情，解民忧，化民怨，暖民心。三是提高社会保障水平，让老百姓安居乐业。未来5年，中国将重点在农村社会保险体系、城镇职工和居民社会保险制度以及最低生活保障制度等三个方面迈出更大步伐，从而更好地实现“学有所教、劳有所得、病有所医、老有所养和住有所居”这一目标。
By "inclusive", we mean we want to deliver a happier and more dignified life for every Chinese and make sure that we all share in the benefits of our development. The ratio of earnings to GDP in China remains low, and the Gini Coefficient is high. The quality of public services is far from matching the pace of economic growth. To overcome the "middle income trap", the 12th Five-Year Plan rightly gives priority to strengthening social programmes and improving people's living standards. To this end, we need to put more money in people's pockets and raise the ratio of income to GDP by 10 percent over the next 3 to 5 years, and provide better public services. The government must listen to the people, understand their hopes and worries and tries its best to help them. Major steps will be taken in the next 5 years to strengthen the social safety net for farmers, urban workers and residents, and put in place a mechanism that ensures the minimum living allowance. In this way, we will make steady progress towards providing all our citizens with a good education, a decent income, quality health care, an old age pension and suitable housing.

说“全面”，是指经济、社会、政治、文化建设要齐头并进，缺一不可。“十二五”规划明确提出中国将以更大的决心和勇气全面推进经济、政治、文化、社会等各方面改革创新，提高改革决策的科学性，增强改革措施的协调性，从根本上破除体制机制障碍，最大限度解放和发展生产力，促进社会公平正义。西方一些人总认为，中国只发展经济，不重视社会建设；只搞经济改革，不进行政治改革。这是对中国全面改革和全面发展的一种误识。中国改革开放30多年来，政治体制改革一直随经济体制改革推进、深化。我们的人民代表大会制度、中国共产党领导的多党合作和政治协商制度，在中国政治生活中的地位和作用越来越大。我们的民主法制建设不断加强，几千年形成的人治社会正在向法治社会转变。我们的党内民主越来越生动，废除终身制，引进竞争上岗机制，实行任前公示，扩大基层党组织直选和中央、地方党委的差额选举比例。我们的基层民主越来越活跃，在中国农村，村长现在都是由村民直选，村务都要向村民公开。“十二五”规划重申了中国将积极稳妥推进政治体制改革，扩大社会主义民主，完善社会主义法制，使上层建筑更加适应经济基础发展变化，为科学发展提供有力保障。我们将不断加强政府自身改革建设，牢记政府的一切权力都是人民赋予的，必须对人民负责，为人民谋利益，接受人民监督。我们将最广泛地动员和组织人民依法管理国家和社会事务，管理经济和文化事业。我们将坚持依法治国基本方略，加强维护群众利益的法规建设，推进依法行政。中国政治体制改革的步伐从来没有停滞，今后也不会停滞。
By "comprehensive", we want to ensure progress on every front, be it economic or social, political or cultural. The 12th Five Year Plan calls for bolder steps in reform and innovation across all of these areas. This will help to improve coordination and decision-making, break institutional barriers to productivity and promote social justice. Some people in the West believe that China only focuses on economic growth and ignores social progress, and that it only carries out economic reform, not political reform. This is a misunderstanding. Over the past 30 years, political reform has come with economic changes every step of the way. We have seen the growing role of the National People's Congress and multi-party political consultation under the leadership of the Communist Party. Democratic decision making and the legal system have been strengthened, with the millennium-old pattern of "rule by man" giving way to the rule of law. Democracy within the party is also developing rapidly. Life-long tenures of leadership position were abolished many years ago and competitive promotion with public consultation is becoming the norm. Direct election at village level was expanded and multi-candidate elections for offices at both central and local levels have been expanded. The 12th Five-Year Plan reaffirms that China will move ahead with political reform, and improve socialist democracy and the rule of law. We will increase government accountability, subject officials to scrutiny by the general public and build a government of the people, by the people and for the people. The people's participation in state as well as economic and cultural affairs is also being encouraged and protected. We will stay committed to the rule of law. China's political reform has never stopped and will not stop in the future.

说“绿色”，就是要考虑生态成本，重视生态效益。“十二五”规划提出，未来五年中国将加快建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会，大力发展循环经济，加大环境保护力度，积极应对全球气候变化，增强可持续发展能力，切实遵守为应对气候变化问题而向国际社会作出的庄严承诺。具体目标是非化石能源占一次能源消费比重提高到11.4%，单位国内生产总值能耗和二氧化碳排放分别降低16%和17%，主要污染物排放总量减少8%至10%，森林蓄积量增加6亿立方米，森林覆盖率达到21%以上。我经常提醒英国企业家们，过去，中国先看投资项目能否产生经济效益，现在首先要看是否符合环保要求。对外来投资，中国现在再也不是来者不拒，而是严格限制高污染、高能耗和资源型项目，鼓励外资投向符合发展潮流的高端制造业、高新技术产业、现代服务业、新能源和节能环保产业。
By "green", we are stressing the need to reduce environmental costs of development. The 12th Five-Year Plan calls for building a resource-efficient and environment-friendly society, that is to say, we need to better protect the environment and address the issues around climate change. This has resulted in specific targets, which include:

Raising the share of non fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 11.4%;
Reducing energy and carbon dioxide intensities by 16% and 17% respectively;
Cutting the discharge of main pollutants by 8-10%;
Increasing forest stock by 600 million cubic metres and forest coverage to 21%.
I often remind business leaders in this country who are interested in doing business in China that in the past, foreign-invested projects were evaluated on the basis of their economic returns. Now it is environmental impact, as China no longer welcomes polluting, energy-and-resources-consuming businesses. Instead it encourages foreign investors to channel their capital into high-end manufacturing, high-tech industries, modern services, new energy and environment-friendly projects.

“十二五”规划释放的第二大信息就是：和平发展。中国将继续奉行独立自主的和平外交政策，坚持走和平发展道路，坚持互利共赢的开放战略，同世界各国一道推动建设持久和平、共同繁荣的和谐世界。
The 12th Five-Year Plan also sends another message – peaceful development. China remains committed to an independent and peaceful foreign policy. It believes in win-win opening-up and hopes to work with countries to build a harmonious world of lasting peace and common prosperity.

认识中国的“和平发展”，我认为主要应把握三点：
To understand China's peaceful development, we need to be aware of 3 key points:

第一，“和平发展”是“科学发展”的必然要求。当今的时代是全球化的时代，中国与世界的关系日益紧密，中国的前途命运日益同世界的前途命运紧密联系在一起。中国要实现科学发展，必须有一个和平的国际环境，必须要加强同世界各国的合作。我们与周边国家加强睦邻友好和务实合作；与发达国家增强互信，深化合作；与广大发展中国家巩固传统友谊，扩大互利合作。我们将以自己的科学发展促进地区和世界的共同发展，以自己的和平发展促进地区稳定和世界和平。
First, peaceful development is a natural extension of our scientific development. We live in a globalised world and in an era of increasing independence among countries. China's future has never been so closely linked to that of the rest of the world. China's scientific development calls for international cooperation and a peaceful environment. China has worked hard to deepen its friendship and cooperation with its neighbours, with developed countries and other developing countries. China will, through its scientific and peaceful development, contribute ever more to peace and development of the region and the world.

第二，和平发展的基本要义是开放、合作和互利共赢。
Second, China's peaceful development is open, cooperative and win-win to others.

中国的和平发展是开放的发展。关起门来搞建设的时代已经一去不复返。中国需要对外开放，世界也需要一个开放的中国。“十二五”规划强调中国必须实行更加积极主动的开放战略，拓展新的开放领域和空间，积极参与全球经济治理和区域合作，不断提高对外开放水平。
China's development is an open development, as development behind a closed door has long been a thing of the past. China needs to open up and the world needs an open China. This is recognised in the 12th Five-Year Plan, as it emphasizes the need to open more industries up to the world and to be an active player in global economic governance and regional cooperation.

中国的和平发展是合作的发展。中国是国际大家庭的一员，只有风雨同舟、利益共享、责任共担，才是最符合自己和别国利益的。我们主张对外要友好，不要敌视；要合作，不要对抗；要互相信任，不要相互猜疑；要平等相待，不要强加于人。
China's development is a cooperative development. Being a member of the international community, China understands too well that interests of all countries can be best served when countries stand together through thick and thin and when they share both interests and burdens. China advocates amity not animosity; cooperation not confrontation; mutual trust not suspicion; and treating each other as equals not imposing on others.

中国的发展是互利共赢的发展。中国坚持自身利益与世界利益的一致性，在自身发展的同时，努力与世界各国实现共同发展，决不做损人利己、自私自利的事。我们知道，要想自己发展，必须让别人发展；要想自己安全，必须让别人安全；要想自己活得好，必须让人家也活得好。
China's development is a win-win development, as it encourages a synergy between its own interests and the interests of others, and seeks mutual development. It will never follow a beggar-thy-neighbour approach. It understands that China can develop and enjoy security and prosperity only when other countries enjoy the same.

第三，中国和平发展，对世界是好事，是机遇。中国越发展，对世界的贡献也就越大。
Third, China's peaceful development is a blessing and opportunity to the world. The more developed China becomes, the greater its contribution to the world will be.

一是中国发展本身就是人类进步事业的重要组成部分。中国实行改革开放30多年，使3亿多人摆脱贫困，用占世界7%的耕地解决了世界1/5人口的吃饭问题，经济总量跃升至世界第二，政治社会保持稳定。根据路透与伊普索斯最近联合进行的一项民调，中国78%的民众对未来充满信心。世界上1/5的人口安居乐业，本身就是对世界和平的重要贡献。
China's development is an important part of human progress. Since reform and opening-up more than 30 years ago, 300 million people have been lifted out of poverty. China has managed to feed one fifth of the world's population with only 7% of the world's arable land. It is now the second largest economy, and enjoys political and social stability. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 78% of the Chinese people surveyed are confident about their future. With one fifth of the world's population enjoying a peaceful and prosperous life, China has made a big contribution to world peace and prosperity.

二是中国的和平发展给世界带来了增长动力和发展机遇。中国是世界第一大出口国，也是世界第一制造业大国。中国制造和出口的物美价廉的商品使世界各国消费者受益。中国同时还是世界第二大进口国，去年进口总额近1.4万亿美元，增长 38.7%。中国进口的增加有力地拉动其他国家的出口，促进了其经济增长。去年欧盟对华出口增加31.9%，英国增长42%。随着中国大力促进内需和扩大消费，中国有望成为世界最大的消费市场，进口必然还会增加。
China's peaceful development is an engine and opportunity for world economic growth. As the world's largest exporter and manufacturer, China produces affordable and quality goods to the benefit of consumers across the world. At the same time, China is the world's No.2 importer, having imported nearly 1.4 trillion US dollars worth of goods last year, an increase of 38.7%. These imports have boosted economic growth in its trade partners. Last year EU's export to China increased by 31.9%, and the figure for the UK was as high as 42%. As China continues to stimulate demand and consumption at home, it is well on the way to becoming the world's largest consumer market.

在过去十年里中国吸收了7000多亿美元的外资，各国企业在参与中国建设的同时，获得了丰厚的回报。去年，中国对外直接投资接近600亿美元，在发展中国家中居第一位。中国对外投资和中国企业积极“走出去”，有力促进了所在国经济增长、就业增加和社会事业发展。2009年，中国企业的海外分支向所在国纳税总额达到109亿美元，雇佣所在国员工43.8万人。2000年以来中国企业在非洲建设了6万公里道路和7000万平方米房屋。据《金融时报》研究，中国在过去两年里向其他发展中国家至少发放了1100亿美元贷款，作用超过了世界银行。
China has attracted over 700 billion US dollars of foreign investment over the past decade. This has enabled foreign businesses to be an important part of China's development and to share in the growing boom of the Chinese market. Last year, China invested nearly 60 billion US dollars overseas, ranking it first amongst developing countries. China's economic growth has encouraged Chinese businesses to "go-global" and contributed to economic and social progress and job creation across the world. In 2009, overseas branches and subsidiaries of Chinese companies paid a total of 10.9 billion US dollars in local taxes and hired a local work force of 438 thousand people. Over the past decade, Chinese businesses have helped to build 60 thousand kilometres of road and 70 million square metres of housing across Africa. Research by the Financial Times shows that in the past two years, China has given record loans of 110 billion US dollars to other developing countries, higher than the World Bank.

在1997年亚洲发生金融危机时，中国发挥了中流砥柱的作用。在此次国际金融危机中，中国实行大规模刺激政策，保持经济较快增长，为世界经济提供了强劲增长动力。2009年中国对世界经济增长的贡献率高达50%，去年亦达到20%。在欧洲爆发债务危机后，中国也坚定支持欧元区和IMF联手救援机制，不仅不抛售欧元资产，而且“雪中送炭”，主动向欧洲国家伸出援助之手，帮助欧洲克服困难、实现复苏。
China played a pivotal role during the Asian financial crisis in 1997. As the financial crisis of 2008 hit developed countries, China provided a strong boost to the global economy by adopting a huge economic stimulus package and maintaining rapid growth. It contributed 50% to global growth in 2009 and 20% in 2010. It stood firmly by Europe during the European debt crisis last year. Instead of selling euro assets, it offered a helping hand to its European partners and supported their efforts to recover from the crisis.

三是中国和平发展有力地促进了世界和平和稳定。中国奉行独立自主的和平外交政策，庄严地向世界承诺永远不称霸，永远不搞扩张；主张不干涉别国内部事务和谈判解决国际争端；倡导互信、互利、平等、协作的新安全观。中国积极参与国际维和行动，是联合国安理会常任理事国中派出维和人员最多的国家，累计参与24项联合国维和行动，派出上万名维和人员；中国向索马里海域派出护航舰队，与多国舰队一道打击海盗，维护国际水域的安全；中国大力倡导朝核问题六方会谈，推动伊朗核问题的谈判和对话，努力维护地区的和平与稳定。中国积极参加二十国集团峰会等多边机制建设，推动世界经济治理机制改革不断深化。中国与国际社会一道努力应对气候变化、能源和资源、粮食安全、恐怖主义等全球性挑战。最近，中国尽管自身也遭受了地震灾害，但我们仍然派出救援队奔赴新西兰、日本抗震救灾，并提供现汇和物资援助。无论从中国的外交思想，还是外交行动来看，中国都是世界和平的维护者、稳定的促进者。
China's peaceful development has proved to be a strong force for world peace and stability. China has solemnly pledged to the world that hegemony or expansion is not an option for China; China stands for non-interference in others' internal affairs and negotiated solutions to international disputes. China believes that security should be based on mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and co-ordination. China is the largest contributor of peacekeepers among the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. We have lent 10,000 peacekeepers to 24 UN missions. It has sent escort ships to the waters off the Somali coast and worked with the navies of other countries to combat piracy and improve safety in international waters. It has actively worked to facilitate the Six-Party Talks and negotiations over the Iranian nuclear issue to uphold peace and stability in the region. China has played an active part in the G20 summits and other multilateral institutions, and helped strengthen the reform of global economic governance. It is working with the international community to find a more effective way to meet global challenges such as climate change, energy, resources and food security and terrorism. Recently, despite its own losses and sufferings in earthquakes, China has sent rescue teams to New Zealand and Japan, as well as offering them assistance in cash and in kind. China is in every way an upholder of peace and a facilitator of stability.

展望今后五年，中国将统筹好科学发展与和平发展的同向、互动关系，真正做到内外兼顾、均衡和谐，使我们的发展道路走得越来越宽广、越来越平坦。
Looking into the future, China's task in the next 5 years is to ensure that scientific and peaceful development is both achievable and mutually reinforcing. There is every reason to be confident that China's road ahead will be broader and even more promising.

女士们，先生们，
Ladies and gentlemen,

中国的发展和复兴，这是人类历史近几百年来的新现象；中国所走的道路，也是前人从未走过的道路。中国古人说： “不闻不若闻之，闻之不若见之，见之不若知之，知之不若行之；学至于行之而止矣。”我发现这段话有一个非常简洁和传神的英文译文:“I hear, I forget. I see, I remember. I do, I understand.” 我衷心希望，各位有识之士能站在时代潮流的前沿，打破思维定式，开创全新视角，理解中国的发展道路，抓住中国发展带来的机遇，深化与中国在各领域的合作，与我们一道携手共建一个更加和平、更加繁荣、更加和谐、更加美好的世界。
China's development and rejuvenation has been new to the world, and there has been no historical parallel to the road China has travelled. So, how should people see China's development? Let me quote an ancient Chinese saying, "To hear about something is better than not hear about it; To see it is better than hear about it, to know it still better than see it, yet to fulfil it through action is the ultimate form of knowledge". Interestingly this saying happens to have a very close English equivalent, "I hear and I forget; I see and I remember; I do and I understand." I do hope that people will reject stereotyped thinking, try to hear, to see and to understand China with an open mind, and seize opportunities presented by China's development. I am confident that by sharing opportunities and working together, we will make our world a better place of peace, prosperity and harmony.

谢谢。现在我愿回答大家的提问。
Thank you. Now I would like to take your questions.