2002年硕士入学考试英语阅读真题附答案详解:TEXT3
日期:2014-05-19 16:41

(单词翻译:单击)

真题训练

Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?
The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.
Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25~0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies — to which heavy industry has shifted — have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.
One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist's commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

51. The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is ________.
[A] global inflation
[B] reduction in supply
[C] fast growth in economy
[D] Iraq's suspension of exports

52. It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if ________.
[A] price of crude rises
[B] commodity prices rise
[C] consumption rises
[D] oil taxes rise

53. The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries ________.
[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive
[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices
[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed
[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP

54. We can draw a conclusion from the text that ________.
[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now
[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks
[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices
[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry

55. From the text we can see that the writer seems ________.
[A] optimistic
[B] sensitive
[C] gloomy
[D] scared
难句解析


难句解析:
①Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short time.
▲该句是一个含有插入成分的单句。主语是Strengthening economic growth,谓语是could push,插入成分是一个时间状语。
△本句阅读的重点是要首先抓住主句的基本结构。
②In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.
▲该句是一个复杂句,由两个单句构成,中间用so来表示前后的因果关系。
△本句阅读的重点是一些短语和词组。account for占…的部分;muted原意是“沉默的,被弄哑的”,在文章里的意思是“不太显著的”;pump price油品零售价格。
③Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption.
▲该句是一个简单句,只是主语复杂一点,其谓语部分是have reduced oil consumption。
△本句阅读的重点在主语,注意它里面有三个并列成分:Energy conservation,a shift to other fuels,第三个是a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries。
④The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP.
▲本句的主句是The OECD estimates... that,本句复杂的地方在其宾语部分,里面有一个条件状语if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998,而主句是后面的部分,其中的主语this指代的是if条件句。
△本句阅读的重点在于抓住句子的主干。
⑤One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand.
▲本句的主句是One more reason is that...。比较复杂的是其以that引导的表语从句,它的主语是it,指代的是the rise in oil prices。
△本句阅读的重点在于了解一些短语的意思:lose sleep over因…而失眠;occur against the background of...发生在…的背景之下。
试题解析


试题解析:
51. [B]
此题的难度合适0.555,区分度好0.245。
本题的答题依据是第一段的第二句话,“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December.”看懂了这句话,这道题就很容易了。可以看出,近期油价上涨是因为欧佩克减少了石油供应。联系B选项:减少石油供应。入选。
A选项意为:全球通货膨胀。原文首段说的是因为油价上涨导致了通货膨胀,而不是因为通货膨胀导致油价上涨,故排除该选项。
C选项意为:经济的快速增长。原文中提及了经济问题,但是并没说是因为经济快速增长导致了油价上涨,即使从常理考虑这也是不合情理的,因此排除该选项。
D选项意为:伊拉克停止了石油出口。其实这个选项比较有争议,毕竟这个也确实是油价上涨的原因。但是既然有了B选项这个概括的比较全面的选项,就不能选D选项了。
52. [D]
此题的难度合适0.609,区分度好0.280。
本题的关键信息在第三段的第三句话“In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price,so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.”意思是说:在欧洲,汽油的零售价中税占到五分之四,因此税的增加会导致汽油价格的(成比例)猛涨,而原油价格的变化带来的影响不会很大。联系D选项:燃油税上升。入选。
A选项意为:原油价格上升。原文第三段末句说的很清楚,即使原油价格有很大变动,汽油价格也不会有显著变化。因此排除该选项。
B选项意为:日用品价格上升。这在原文没有体现,故排除。
C选项意为:消费量上升。同上,原文中没有提及该观点。
53. [D]
此题较易0.793,区分度很好0.412。
本题的答题依据是第四段中的第五句“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25%-0.5% of GDP.”这是一道比较容易的题。由此句看出,石油价格的变化也只会使发达国家的石油进口在支出上增加GDP的0.25%~0.5%,因此联系D选项:石油价格对于GDP没有显著的影响。
A选项意为:重工业变得非常能源密集。第四段第二句中提及了heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption,但是原文说的是重工业减少了对能源的消耗,而不是变得能源密集。因此排除该选项。
B选项意为:收入损失主要来源于原油价格的浮动。这在原文没有提及,故排除。
C选项意为:制作工业已经被严重浓缩了。第四段末句确实提到了:so could be more seriously squeezed.可是这和制作工业没什么联系,故排除。
54. [A]
此题的难度合适0.533,区分度很好0.449。
本题的答题依据是全文的最后一段,强调这次油价上涨与20世纪70年代的上涨不同,也就是没有70年代的那一次那么可怕。联系A选项:石油价格产生的动荡已经不那么明显了。入选。
B选项意为:通货膨胀看起来对与石油价格动荡不相关。这个与原文本意相反,原文提到了石油价格变化引起了通货膨胀。
C选项意为:能源保护能降低油价。这个没有任何根据,常理上讲也不合适。因此排除该选项。
D选项意为:原油价格上升导致重工业萎缩。原文只是说重工业降低了对能源的需求,而不是萎缩。因此排除该选项。
55. [A]
此题比较容易0.765,区分度很好0.472。
本题是一道比较容易的题。答题依据贯穿全文,尤其是第三段和最后一段的第一句话,强调人们不必担心此次油价上涨,因为这一次的情况与20世纪70年代不同。这种态度题一般不是选客观的,就是选乐观的,总之首先选中庸选项,其次选褒义选项,至于贬义选项基本没有可能是正确答案。因此A选项:乐观的。入选。
B选项(敏感的),C选项(令人沮丧的),D选项(恐惧的)均不合题意。
全文翻译


全文翻译:
过去经济衰落的日子会不会重来?自从石油输出国组织在3月决定减少原油供应,原油的价格便从去年12月的不到10美元一桶上升到约26美元一桶。这次近3倍的涨价令人想起了1973年和1979~1980年两次可怕的石油恐慌,当时的油价分别涨了4倍和近3倍。前两次的油价暴涨都导致了两位数的通货膨胀和全球性的经济衰退。那么这次警告人们厄运来临的头版新闻都到哪里去了呢?
本周伊拉克暂停石油出口,这使油价又一次上扬。强劲的经济增长势头,随着北半球冬季的到来,有可能在短期内使石油价格涨得更高。
然而,我们有充分的理由预期这次油价暴涨给经济带来的影响不会像20世纪70年代那么严重。与70年代相比,现在多数国家的原油价格占汽油价格的份额要小很多。在欧洲,税金在汽油零售价的比例高达4/5,因此,即使原油价格发生很大的波动,汽油价格所受的影响也不会像过去那么显著。
发达国家对石油的依赖性也不如从前,因此对油价的波动也就不会那么敏感。能源储备、燃料替代以及能源密集型重工业的重要性的降低,都减少了石油消耗量。软件、咨询及移动通讯消耗的石油,比钢铁、汽车行业少得多。发达国家国民生产总值中每一个美元所消耗的石油量比1973年少了近一半。国际经合组织在最近一期的《经济展望》中估计,如果油价持续一年维持在22美元左右,与1998年的13美元一桶相比,这也只会使发达国家的石油进口在支出上增加GDP的0.25%~0.5%。这还不到1974年或1980年收入减少部分的1/4。另一方面,进口石油的新兴国家由于转向了重工业,消耗能量更大,因此可能会受到石油危机的强烈影响。
另外一个不应因油价上升而失眠的原因是,与20世纪70年代不同,这次油价上升不是发生在普遍的物价暴涨及全球需求过旺背景之下。世界上很多地区才刚刚走出经济衰落。《经济学家》的商品价格指数与一年前相比总的来说也没有什么变化。1973年的商品价格跃升了70%,而1979年也上升了近30%

分享到
重点单词
  • importn. 进口,进口商品,意义 v. 进口,输入
  • suspensionn. 悬挂,悬浮液,暂缓,未决,中止
  • unchangingadj. 不变的
  • retailn. 零售 vt. 零售,传述 adv. 以零售形式
  • mutedadj. 柔和的;无言的;趋缓的 v. 使柔和(mute
  • declinen. 衰微,跌落; 晚年 v. 降低,婉谢
  • pumpn. 泵,抽水机,打气筒,抽水,打气 v. 打气,抽水,
  • conclusionn. 结论
  • dependentadj. 依靠的,依赖的,从属的 n. 受援助者
  • reductionn. 减少,缩小,(化学)还原反应,(数学)约分