英语原文

Taiwan falls into recession

Taiwan has tumbled into recession, suffering a record annual fall in output at the end of last year to become east Asia's worst-performing economy.

Official data yesterday showed Taiwan's gross domestic product shrank 8.36 per cent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2008, a bigger drop than analysts had expected and that underscored the exposure of Asian exporters to the slump in world demand.

The figures spurred the Taiwanese central bank to make an unexpected 0.25 percentage point cut in interest rates, bringing its key interest rate to a record low of 1.25 per cent. The economy has contracted for two straight quarters, meeting a common definition of recession.

Taiwan's woes spell further gloom for other economies in the region, particularly that of China, where Taiwanese manufacturers have shifted much of their output in recent years and where many of the island's manufactured electronics parts are shipped for final assembly before being sold to consumers in the west.

According to the International Labour Organisation, Asia will see the number of jobless people rise by up to 23.3m in 2009, three times more than the estimate of 7.2m last month as the region reels from the recession in the world's richest countries,

Exports are expected to drop by a fifth this year, with consumer prices projected to fall sharply too.

“There is little hope of returning to positive economic growth until the fourth quarter of this year,” said Tsai Hung-kun of the national statistics agency.

While suggesting exports would begin to rebound at year end, he said the government had underestimated the degree to which exports suffered when it predicted three months ago that the economy would grow by more than 2 per cent this year.

The government has already announced a T$500bn ($14.4bn), two-year stimulus package, which includes infrastructure projects, measures to boost employment and hand-outs of T$85bn in consumer vouchers.

Mr Tsai said the government spending would boost GDP by 2.77 per cent this year. But economists doubted the extent to which the measures would help the economy and said Taiwan remained vulnerable to weak global demand.

中文翻译

台湾已陷入衰退，其产出在去年底遭受创纪录的年度滑坡，成为东亚表现最糟的经济体。

昨日官方数据显示，台湾GDP在2008年末季同比萎缩8.36%，降幅超出分析师预期，突显出全球需求暴跌对亚洲出口型经济体的影响。

这些数据推动台湾央行出人意料地减息0.25个百分点，使台湾主要利率降至1.25%的创纪录低位。至此，台湾经济已连续两个季度出现萎缩，符合经济衰退的通常定义。

台湾的不景气预示着该地区其它经济体将迎来更多坏消息，尤其是中国大陆。近年来，台湾制造商已将相当大部分产出转移到中国大陆，而台湾制造的许多电子零部件也发运至中国大陆进行最后组装，然后销售给西方消费者。

根据国际劳工组织(ILO)的估算，随着亚洲受到富国经济衰退的冲击，2009年亚洲失业人口将增加2330万，是上月估算的720万的三倍多。

预计今年出口将下降20%，而消费者物价预计也将大幅下跌。

台湾统计部门——行政院主计处官员蔡鸿坤(Tsai Hung-kun)表示，在今年第四季度之前恢复经济增长的希望不大。

蔡鸿坤提出，出口将在今年底开始反弹，但他承认，此前政府低估了出口受到打击的严重程度。台湾政府在3个月前预测，台湾经济今年将增长逾2%。

台湾政府已宣布了为期两年的5000亿元新台币（合144亿美元）刺激方案，包括基础设施工程、提振就业举措，以及发放850亿元新台币的消费券。

蔡鸿坤表示，政府支出今年将使GDP增长2.77%。但经济学家们对政府举措帮助经济的程度表示怀疑，称台湾仍容易受到疲弱全球需求的影响。