GRE官方试题

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chairperson of the West Egg Town Council.
"Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of recycled material—which includes paper, plastic, and metal—should further increase, since charges for pickup of other household garbage will double. Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our town's strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

题目讲解

【翻译】
两年前，我们的顾问预言West Egg用于投放垃圾的填埋地将在五年内完全充满。然而在过去两年间，市对于铝和纸张的循环再生的数量比以前翻了一番。由于垃圾收集的收费在下个月将会加倍，循环再生的材料数量将进一步增加。而且，最近一次调查超过90%的回应者表示他们将会在未来做更多的循环再生工作。由于居对循环再生的有力支持，我们填埋地可利用空间的使用时间将比预期的长得多。

【分析】
1.没有说明，人口等其他因素是否会导致垃圾数量的增多，可能offset the decease of垃圾，由于循环和回收的增多导致的
2.没有说明会因为垃圾收集费用的提高导致循环数量的增加，更愿意花钱
3.其他因素：调查的详细信息没有说明，比一定所有的人都会那样做;其外，没有证据说明垃圾总量的信息，可能现在的总数比过去多很多，而循环在回收的数量翻倍不能说明总量的情况

【提纲】
1survey
2铝和纸不代表垃圾整体。
3consultants是否已经考虑到回收增加。