GRE官方试题

A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

题目讲解

【翻译】
水杨酸酯和用来治疗头痛的药物--阿司匹林是同一类化合物。尽管很多食品天然富含水杨酸酯，过去几十年中食品加工公司仍然在食品中加入它来作为防腐剂。这种水杨酸酯在商业上的使用被发现与我们为期20年研究的参加者所报告的头痛发病的平均数量下降是相关的。最近，食品加工公司发现水杨酸酯也可以被用作食品香料。根据这种水杨酸酯的新用途，我们可以预期Mentia居患头痛症的数量将会持续稳步下降。

【分析】
1.作者没有考虑其他可能过去导致头痛的原因，不一定是缺少Salicylates
2.作者也错误的认为头痛减少是因为事务处理公司把Salicylates用作防腐剂的缘故，可能有别的因素
3.其他因素：调查的具体信息，对象;Salicylates又没有危害

【提纲】
1survey。
2头痛下降是否与食品有关。应该分析他们的饮食提供证据，并且排除其他可能性：他们是因为其他更有效的药物或治疗方法。
3虽然食品中含有，但是含量极其微量。未必能够治疗。人们使用健康食品的趋势增加，含有防腐剂和香料的食品未必消费量大。况且不是所有头疼都能用这种药物成分解决。所以头疼数量未必会下降。