GRE官方试题

The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

题目讲解

【分析】
strict laws,housing prices 论断：如果M市要设立严格的限制楼房建设的法规，这些法规不会对平均房价有任何影响。因为P城20年前设了法规限制新建房屋的数量，该地平均楼价从那时起有了显著提高。而与P城规模相当的C城，在过去20年里也经历了同P城一样的价格提升，但是C城没有设立任何对新建楼的限制法规。所以说，法规对平均楼价没有影响。 论者认为法规不会对M城的平均房价有任何影响，它的结论是从P城与C城在过去二十年里的楼价上升相同而得出的，其中一个有法规而另一个没有。但是论者的比较是否有效，两地是否能进行比较却值得可疑。 ·两地的地理位置不同，经济发展状况不同，这些都会影响楼价，从而使得两市的楼市发展没有比较的基础。 ·两地的居民习惯不同，历史基础不同，使得两地对于政府管理楼房建设产生不同的需求。比如二十年前P城实乱，不管不行，而C城一直不错，不管也可以。 ·对于楼价的增长，应该主要立足于纵向。我们不能排除如果P城不出台法规，就不会有与C城一样的楼市增长。而如果C出台了，有可能会升得更快。同样，C城与P与C可能有着差异，所以无论是P还是C的经验都不一定发生在C城。论者希望能从他人经验中得到指导，但是他还是应该立足于本地区看需求。

【提纲】
1样本差异。C与P不同。P应该和取消限制时期比，而不是和C比。可能是综合因素。过去的20年可能经历了货币贬值。Inflation & devaluation。
2即使限制在C、P都无效，不说明一般情况。M与C、P都不同，应该具体分析。M是新城市，C、P是老城市。